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we<00:00:06.009> return<00:00:06.340> to<00:00:06.370> a<00:00:06.490> topic<00:00:06.910> we<00:00:07.029> looked<00:00:07.210> at<00:00:07.390> before
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we return to a topic we looked at before
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we return to a topic we looked at before
the<00:00:08.109> distribution<00:00:08.740> of<00:00:09.099> income<00:00:09.509> we<00:00:10.509> do<00:00:10.660> this
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the distribution of income we do this
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the distribution of income we do this
partly<00:00:11.259> because<00:00:11.499> it's<00:00:11.829> such<00:00:12.009> an<00:00:12.129> important
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partly because it's such an important
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partly because it's such an important
issue<00:00:12.759> in<00:00:13.059> social<00:00:13.450> science<00:00:13.829> but<00:00:14.829> also<00:00:14.889> because
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issue in social science but also because
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issue in social science but also because
it<00:00:15.579> enables<00:00:16.030> us<00:00:16.119> to<00:00:16.180> review<00:00:16.600> a<00:00:16.660> number<00:00:17.050> of
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it enables us to review a number of
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it enables us to review a number of
statistical<00:00:17.800> topics<00:00:18.220> that<00:00:18.429> we've<00:00:18.580> met
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statistical topics that we've met
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statistical topics that we've met
earlier<00:00:19.179> in<00:00:19.330> the<00:00:19.449> series<00:00:20.880> in<00:00:21.880> a<00:00:22.029> previous<00:00:22.300> film
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earlier in the series in a previous film
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earlier in the series in a previous film
we<00:00:23.679> looked<00:00:23.859> at<00:00:24.009> the<00:00:24.099> difference<00:00:24.429> between
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we looked at the difference between
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we looked at the difference between
wealth<00:00:25.210> and<00:00:25.539> income<00:00:26.130> if<00:00:27.130> we<00:00:27.730> plot<00:00:27.970> the<00:00:28.179> data
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wealth and income if we plot the data
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wealth and income if we plot the data
for<00:00:28.749> either<00:00:29.050> of<00:00:29.349> these<00:00:29.619> variables<00:00:30.310> for<00:00:31.240> most
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for either of these variables for most
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for either of these variables for most
countries<00:00:32.169> we<00:00:32.890> get<00:00:33.070> a<00:00:33.100> positively<00:00:33.940> skewed
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countries we get a positively skewed
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countries we get a positively skewed
distribution<00:00:35.610> wealth<00:00:36.610> is<00:00:37.360> even<00:00:37.810> more<00:00:38.020> skewed
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distribution wealth is even more skewed
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distribution wealth is even more skewed
than<00:00:38.620> income<00:00:38.950> with<00:00:39.940> most<00:00:40.240> people<00:00:40.630> having
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than income with most people having
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than income with most people having
little<00:00:41.470> or<00:00:41.680> no<00:00:41.920> wealth<00:00:42.190> at<00:00:42.370> all<00:00:42.640> and<00:00:43.630> the
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little or no wealth at all and the
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little or no wealth at all and the
distribution<00:00:44.860> of<00:00:45.160> incomes<00:00:45.550> is<00:00:45.880> a<00:00:46.210> skewed
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distribution of incomes is a skewed
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distribution of incomes is a skewed
distribution<00:00:47.230> there<00:00:48.190> are<00:00:48.310> lots<00:00:48.460> of<00:00:48.550> people
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distribution there are lots of people
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distribution there are lots of people
who<00:00:48.850> don't<00:00:48.970> learn<00:00:49.150> very<00:00:49.210> much<00:00:49.510> there<00:00:50.410> are
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who don't learn very much there are
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who don't learn very much there are
quite<00:00:50.650> a<00:00:50.710> few<00:00:50.770> people<00:00:51.130> in<00:00:51.220> the<00:00:51.280> middle<00:00:51.550> and
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quite a few people in the middle and
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quite a few people in the middle and
there<00:00:51.850> are<00:00:51.940> very<00:00:52.090> small<00:00:52.330> number<00:00:52.600> of<00:00:52.630> people
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there are very small number of people
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there are very small number of people
who<00:00:52.930> earn<00:00:52.960> an<00:00:53.260> extraordinarily<00:00:54.010> large<00:00:54.580> amount
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who earn an extraordinarily large amount
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who earn an extraordinarily large amount
of<00:00:55.270> money<00:00:55.950> now<00:00:56.950> if<00:00:57.190> you<00:00:57.460> choose<00:00:57.730> to<00:00:58.000> analyze
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of money now if you choose to analyze
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of money now if you choose to analyze
that<00:00:58.810> by<00:00:59.020> taking<00:00:59.200> a<00:00:59.410> mean<00:00:59.730> you're<00:01:00.730> going<00:01:00.910> to
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that by taking a mean you're going to
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that by taking a mean you're going to
wind<00:01:01.210> up<00:01:01.330> with<00:01:01.600> a<00:01:01.630> rather<00:01:02.110> high<00:01:02.320> number<00:01:02.890> simply
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wind up with a rather high number simply
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wind up with a rather high number simply
because<00:01:03.610> a<00:01:03.730> few<00:01:03.940> billionaires<00:01:04.479> can<00:01:05.199> distort
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because a few billionaires can distort
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because a few billionaires can distort
it<00:01:05.830> and<00:01:06.640> you<00:01:06.730> present<00:01:07.090> that<00:01:07.150> as<00:01:07.330> an<00:01:07.450> average
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it and you present that as an average
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it and you present that as an average
the<00:01:07.960> average<00:01:07.990> income<00:01:08.440> in<00:01:08.800> Britain<00:01:09.100> is<00:01:09.250> what<00:01:10.120> in
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the average income in Britain is what in
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the average income in Britain is what in
fifty<00:01:10.570> sixty<00:01:10.870> thousand<00:01:11.380> people<00:01:11.410> so<00:01:11.680> hang<00:01:11.920> on<00:01:12.040> a
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fifty sixty thousand people so hang on a
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fifty sixty thousand people so hang on a
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minute there's not many of you one who
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minute there's not many of you one who
gets<00:01:14.140> that<00:01:14.760> and<00:01:15.760> that's<00:01:15.910> a<00:01:16.000> classic<00:01:16.240> case
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gets that and that's a classic case
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gets that and that's a classic case
where<00:01:16.780> you<00:01:16.870> really<00:01:17.200> should<00:01:17.409> be<00:01:17.440> looking<00:01:17.860> at
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where you really should be looking at
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where you really should be looking at
either<00:01:18.250> the<00:01:18.490> median<00:01:18.909> or<00:01:19.060> the<00:01:19.150> mode<00:01:19.409> if<00:01:20.409> you
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either the median or the mode if you
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either the median or the mode if you
want<00:01:20.710> to<00:01:20.830> know<00:01:20.890> so<00:01:21.400> what<00:01:21.550> does<00:01:21.670> a<00:01:21.700> typical
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want to know so what does a typical
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want to know so what does a typical
person<00:01:22.330> in<00:01:22.540> Britain<00:01:22.810> earn<00:01:22.960> you<00:01:23.470> want<00:01:23.620> the<00:01:23.710> mode
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person in Britain earn you want the mode
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person in Britain earn you want the mode
and<00:01:24.700> that<00:01:25.450> is<00:01:25.540> a<00:01:25.570> surprisingly<00:01:26.110> low<00:01:26.530> number<00:01:27.210> if
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and that is a surprisingly low number if
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and that is a surprisingly low number if
we<00:01:28.330> want<00:01:28.600> to<00:01:28.720> measure<00:01:29.050> the<00:01:29.320> degree<00:01:29.500> of
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we want to measure the degree of
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we want to measure the degree of
skewness<00:01:30.250> of<00:01:30.520> wealth<00:01:30.760> we<00:01:30.940> can<00:01:31.090> do<00:01:31.210> so<00:01:31.420> with<00:01:31.570> a
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skewness of wealth we can do so with a
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skewness of wealth we can do so with a
simple<00:01:31.960> formula<00:01:32.520> but<00:01:33.520> we'll<00:01:33.700> need<00:01:33.820> to<00:01:33.940> be
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simple formula but we'll need to be
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simple formula but we'll need to be
clear<00:01:34.300> about<00:01:34.420> the<00:01:34.690> terms<00:01:34.830> mean<00:01:36.030> median<00:01:37.030> and
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clear about the terms mean median and
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clear about the terms mean median and
standard<00:01:38.350> deviation<00:01:38.920> that<00:01:39.370> we<00:01:39.520> met<00:01:39.700> in
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standard deviation that we met in
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standard deviation that we met in
earlier<00:01:40.180> films<00:01:40.830> but<00:01:41.830> with<00:01:42.130> that
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earlier films but with that
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earlier films but with that
understanding<00:01:42.670> we<00:01:43.630> can<00:01:43.810> now<00:01:43.960> develop<00:01:44.320> a
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understanding we can now develop a
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understanding we can now develop a
measure<00:01:45.010> of<00:01:45.340> how<00:01:45.750> skewed<00:01:46.750> wealth
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measure of how skewed wealth
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measure of how skewed wealth
distribution<00:01:47.979> is
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the<00:01:51.250> pier<00:01:51.490> Sounion<00:01:51.910> coefficient<00:01:52.540> of<00:01:52.660> skewness
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the pier Sounion coefficient of skewness
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the pier Sounion coefficient of skewness
sk<00:01:53.800> is<00:01:54.100> given<00:01:54.910> us<00:01:55.060> three<00:01:55.470> times<00:01:57.000> mean-<00:01:58.000> median
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sk is given us three times mean- median
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sk is given us three times mean- median
over<00:01:59.980> the<00:02:00.100> standard<00:02:00.430> deviation<00:02:01.000> a
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over the standard deviation a
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over the standard deviation a
symmetrical<00:02:03.310> distribution<00:02:03.460> will<00:02:04.090> give<00:02:04.270> a
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symmetrical distribution will give a
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symmetrical distribution will give a
value<00:02:04.660> of<00:02:04.870> sk<00:02:05.560> 0<00:02:05.590> 0<00:02:06.340> and<00:02:06.700> in<00:02:07.360> general<00:02:07.540> sk<00:02:08.140> will
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value of sk 0 0 and in general sk will
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value of sk 0 0 and in general sk will
fall<00:02:08.710> between<00:02:09.250> plus<00:02:09.940> 3<00:02:10.360> and<00:02:10.600> minus<00:02:11.140> 3<00:02:12.240> so<00:02:13.240> with
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fall between plus 3 and minus 3 so with
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fall between plus 3 and minus 3 so with
a<00:02:13.420> mean<00:02:13.750> wealth<00:02:14.170> of<00:02:14.470> 5000<00:02:15.280> a<00:02:15.900> median<00:02:16.900> wealth<00:02:17.110> of
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a mean wealth of 5000 a median wealth of
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a mean wealth of 5000 a median wealth of
4,500<00:02:19.000> and<00:02:19.380> a<00:02:20.380> standard<00:02:20.740> deviation<00:02:20.800> of<00:02:21.520> a
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4,500 and a standard deviation of a
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4,500 and a standard deviation of a
thousand<00:02:22.740> we<00:02:23.740> have<00:02:24.010> s<00:02:24.970> k<00:02:25.420> equals<00:02:26.460> three<00:02:27.460> times
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thousand we have s k equals three times
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thousand we have s k equals three times
five<00:02:30.070> thousand<00:02:30.640> minus<00:02:31.830> 4500
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five thousand minus 4500
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five thousand minus 4500
over<00:02:34.540> 1000
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over 1000
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over 1000
equals<00:02:38.000> 1500<00:02:39.410> over<00:02:40.410> a<00:02:40.440> thousand<00:02:41.450> gives<00:02:42.450> us<00:02:42.690> 1.5
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so<00:02:46.510> we<00:02:46.600> can<00:02:46.750> measure<00:02:46.960> the<00:02:47.170> degree<00:02:47.350> of<00:02:47.530> skewness
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so we can measure the degree of skewness
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so we can measure the degree of skewness
with<00:02:48.430> a<00:02:48.610> quite<00:02:48.970> limited<00:02:49.630> amount<00:02:49.930> of<00:02:50.080> data<00:02:52.320> is
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with a quite limited amount of data is
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with a quite limited amount of data is
there<00:02:53.590> a<00:02:53.620> right<00:02:54.130> distribution<00:02:54.700> of<00:02:55.270> income
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there a right distribution of income
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there a right distribution of income
most<00:02:56.890> of<00:02:57.040> us<00:02:57.160> would<00:02:57.310> say<00:02:57.490> it<00:02:57.730> depends<00:02:58.480> upon
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most of us would say it depends upon
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most of us would say it depends upon
your<00:02:58.780> view<00:02:59.140> of<00:02:59.170> justice<00:02:59.790> to<00:03:00.790> some<00:03:01.030> people
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your view of justice to some people
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your view of justice to some people
justice<00:03:02.230> means<00:03:02.470> that<00:03:02.770> people<00:03:02.950> receive<00:03:03.490> an
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justice means that people receive an
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justice means that people receive an
income<00:03:04.270> which<00:03:05.050> reflects<00:03:05.590> their<00:03:05.830> needs<00:03:06.160> so<00:03:06.550> if
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income which reflects their needs so if
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income which reflects their needs so if
that<00:03:07.570> means<00:03:07.860> redistributing<00:03:08.860> income<00:03:09.040> via<00:03:09.460> the
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that means redistributing income via the
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that means redistributing income via the
tax<00:03:09.880> system<00:03:10.200> so<00:03:11.200> be<00:03:11.410> it<00:03:11.820> to<00:03:12.820> others<00:03:13.150> justice
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tax system so be it to others justice
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tax system so be it to others justice
means<00:03:14.730> receiving<00:03:15.730> an<00:03:16.060> income<00:03:16.510> according<00:03:17.230> to
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means receiving an income according to
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means receiving an income according to
what<00:03:17.530> you<00:03:17.680> produce<00:03:17.920> in<00:03:18.510> which<00:03:19.510> case<00:03:19.810> any
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what you produce in which case any
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what you produce in which case any
redistribution<00:03:21.250> of<00:03:21.820> income<00:03:22.000> is<00:03:22.420> by<00:03:23.260> its
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redistribution of income is by its
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redistribution of income is by its
nature<00:03:24.120> unjust<00:03:26.610> Denmark<00:03:27.610> like<00:03:27.880> many<00:03:28.150> European
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nature unjust Denmark like many European
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nature unjust Denmark like many European
nations<00:03:28.830> has<00:03:29.830> a<00:03:29.860> very<00:03:30.160> generous<00:03:30.580> system<00:03:30.970> of
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nations has a very generous system of
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nations has a very generous system of
wealth<00:03:31.300> redistribution<00:03:32.820> single<00:03:33.820> mothers<00:03:34.090> for
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wealth redistribution single mothers for
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wealth redistribution single mothers for
instance<00:03:34.690> receive<00:03:35.110> among<00:03:35.410> other<00:03:35.620> things
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instance receive among other things
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instance receive among other things
housing<00:03:36.930> healthcare<00:03:37.930> dental<00:03:38.830> care<00:03:39.370> and
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housing healthcare dental care and
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housing healthcare dental care and
asleep<00:03:39.910> in<00:03:40.240> the<00:03:40.870> health<00:03:41.110> care<00:03:41.350> is<00:03:41.920> that<00:03:41.950> free
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asleep in the health care is that free
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asleep in the health care is that free
those<00:03:43.300> free<00:03:43.720> we<00:03:44.050> have<00:03:44.200> a<00:03:44.230> dentist<00:03:44.800> that's<00:03:45.400> also
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those free we have a dentist that's also
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those free we have a dentist that's also
for<00:03:45.970> free<00:03:46.150> and<00:03:46.840> that<00:03:46.870> way<00:03:47.470> it's<00:03:47.770> a<00:03:47.830> nice<00:03:48.010> thing
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for free and that way it's a nice thing
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for free and that way it's a nice thing
and<00:03:48.580> a<00:03:48.730> really<00:03:49.150> good<00:03:49.270> thing<00:03:49.600> it's<00:03:49.900> a<00:03:50.020> good<00:03:50.170> deed
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and a really good thing it's a good deed
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and a really good thing it's a good deed
if<00:03:51.100> we<00:03:51.250> can<00:03:51.400> say<00:03:51.520> that<00:03:51.550> way<00:03:51.940> but<00:03:52.930> even<00:03:53.020> in<00:03:53.200> the
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if we can say that way but even in the
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if we can say that way but even in the
most<00:03:53.410> egalitarian<00:03:53.940> European<00:03:54.940> societies<00:03:55.600> some
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most egalitarian European societies some
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most egalitarian European societies some
worried<00:03:56.770> about<00:03:57.070> the<00:03:57.280> effect<00:03:57.370> that<00:03:57.730> taxes<00:03:58.330> have
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worried about the effect that taxes have
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worried about the effect that taxes have
all<00:03:59.140> incentives<00:03:59.890> to<00:04:00.040> work<00:04:00.720> well<00:04:01.720> it's
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all incentives to work well it's
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all incentives to work well it's
different<00:04:02.260> societies<00:04:03.160> and<00:04:03.370> it's<00:04:03.550> different
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different societies and it's different
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different societies and it's different
lifestyles<00:04:04.960> under<00:04:05.380> of<00:04:05.890> course<00:04:06.190> different
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lifestyles under of course different
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lifestyles under of course different
values<00:04:07.650> well<00:04:08.650> we<00:04:08.800> need<00:04:09.010> to<00:04:09.220> have<00:04:09.400> text<00:04:09.850> to<00:04:10.380> have
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values well we need to have text to have
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values well we need to have text to have
a<00:04:11.640> foundation<00:04:12.640> for<00:04:12.910> our<00:04:13.120> health<00:04:14.110> care<00:04:14.320> system
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a foundation for our health care system
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a foundation for our health care system
basic<00:04:16.150> here<00:04:16.510> which<00:04:16.960> I<00:04:17.140> say<00:04:17.380> to<00:04:17.890> our<00:04:18.010> wealth<00:04:18.489> but
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basic here which I say to our wealth but
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basic here which I say to our wealth but
it's<00:04:20.020> also<00:04:20.260> important<00:04:20.770> that<00:04:20.799> people<00:04:21.070> who<00:04:21.370> work
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it's also important that people who work
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it's also important that people who work
can't<00:04:22.240> get<00:04:23.050> feel<00:04:23.410> that<00:04:23.680> it's<00:04:25.560> worth<00:04:26.560> to<00:04:27.070> work
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can't get feel that it's worth to work
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can't get feel that it's worth to work
the<00:04:28.270> text<00:04:28.660> shouldn't<00:04:29.170> be<00:04:29.290> too<00:04:29.500> high<00:04:29.740> and<00:04:30.040> I
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the text shouldn't be too high and I
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the text shouldn't be too high and I
don't<00:04:31.150> think<00:04:31.510> it's<00:04:31.810> right<00:04:32.260> that<00:04:32.320> we<00:04:32.710> have<00:04:32.890> so
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don't think it's right that we have so
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don't think it's right that we have so
high<00:04:33.790> taxes<00:04:34.420> as<00:04:34.600> we<00:04:34.780> have<00:04:34.930> in<00:04:35.110> Sweden<00:04:35.550> but<00:04:36.550> i
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high taxes as we have in Sweden but i
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high taxes as we have in Sweden but i
also<00:04:36.700> think<00:04:37.120> here<00:04:37.840> is<00:04:38.020> an<00:04:38.320> awareness<00:04:38.890> in
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also think here is an awareness in
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also think here is an awareness in
Sweden<00:04:39.490> that<00:04:40.060> we<00:04:40.270> have<00:04:40.510> the<00:04:41.050> education<00:04:41.290> we
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Sweden that we have the education we
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Sweden that we have the education we
have<00:04:42.160> the<00:04:42.430> health<00:04:42.670> care<00:04:43.000> we<00:04:43.450> have<00:04:43.690> the
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have the health care we have the
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have the health care we have the
structure<00:04:44.380> in<00:04:44.530> the<00:04:44.560> society<00:04:45.190> and<00:04:45.550> I<00:04:46.000> think
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structure in the society and I think
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structure in the society and I think
that's<00:04:46.510> also<00:04:46.750> something<00:04:47.140> that<00:04:47.410> we<00:04:47.710> are<00:04:47.740> all
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that's also something that we are all
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that's also something that we are all
very<00:04:48.520> proud<00:04:49.120> of<00:04:49.360> in<00:04:49.510> Sweden<00:04:49.900> we<00:04:50.080> we<00:04:50.740> don't<00:04:50.980> want
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very proud of in Sweden we we don't want
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very proud of in Sweden we we don't want
to<00:04:51.880> get<00:04:52.090> out<00:04:52.330> of<00:04:52.360> the<00:04:53.170> social<00:04:53.770> welfare
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compared<00:04:57.360> with<00:04:57.449> European<00:04:58.259> societies<00:04:58.949> the
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compared with European societies the
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compared with European societies the
United<00:04:59.550> States<00:04:59.819> redistributes<00:05:00.689> much<00:05:00.990> less
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United States redistributes much less
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United States redistributes much less
income<00:05:01.909> although<00:05:02.909> there<00:05:03.060> are<00:05:03.180> some<00:05:03.360> poverty
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income although there are some poverty
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income although there are some poverty
alleviation<00:05:04.110> programs<00:05:05.360> Americans<00:05:06.360> tend<00:05:06.509> to
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alleviation programs Americans tend to
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alleviation programs Americans tend to
believe<00:05:06.779> in<00:05:07.050> self-reliance<00:05:08.389> the<00:05:09.389> homeless
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believe in self-reliance the homeless
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believe in self-reliance the homeless
for<00:05:09.900> instance<00:05:10.319> must<00:05:10.590> rely<00:05:10.860> on<00:05:11.069> the<00:05:11.189> generosity
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for instance must rely on the generosity
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for instance must rely on the generosity
of<00:05:11.879> others<00:05:13.279> people<00:05:14.279> see<00:05:14.430> a<00:05:14.460> problem<00:05:14.789> and<00:05:15.150> they
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of others people see a problem and they
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of others people see a problem and they
take<00:05:15.840> it<00:05:15.960> upon<00:05:16.169> themselves<00:05:16.199> to<00:05:16.830> try<00:05:17.159> to
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take it upon themselves to try to
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take it upon themselves to try to
address<00:05:17.460> it<00:05:17.849> as<00:05:18.029> opposed<00:05:18.419> to<00:05:18.800> trying<00:05:19.800> to<00:05:20.039> force
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address it as opposed to trying to force
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address it as opposed to trying to force
the<00:05:21.930> government<00:05:22.080> entities<00:05:22.770> to<00:05:23.189> to<00:05:23.610> deal<00:05:23.789> with
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the government entities to to deal with
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the government entities to to deal with
the<00:05:24.090> issue<00:05:24.210> and<00:05:24.599> that's<00:05:25.169> how<00:05:25.349> the<00:05:25.409> shelter<00:05:25.770> got
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the issue and that's how the shelter got
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the issue and that's how the shelter got
started<00:05:26.689> some<00:05:27.689> citizens<00:05:28.319> saw<00:05:28.680> the<00:05:28.740> need<00:05:29.039> and
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started some citizens saw the need and
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started some citizens saw the need and
decided<00:05:30.509> to<00:05:30.539> to<00:05:31.379> make<00:05:31.500> it<00:05:31.680> happen<00:05:31.830> and<00:05:32.310> I<00:05:32.819> think
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decided to to make it happen and I think
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decided to to make it happen and I think
that's<00:05:33.060> that's<00:05:33.719> the<00:05:33.960> Genesis<00:05:34.409> for<00:05:34.560> a<00:05:34.620> lot<00:05:34.889> of
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that's that's the Genesis for a lot of
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that's that's the Genesis for a lot of
human<00:05:35.279> service<00:05:35.550> agencies<00:05:36.259> the<00:05:37.259> shelter<00:05:37.710> for
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human service agencies the shelter for
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human service agencies the shelter for
the<00:05:37.949> homeless<00:05:37.979> receive<00:05:38.779> 75%<00:05:39.779> of<00:05:39.870> its<00:05:40.020> funding
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the homeless receive 75% of its funding
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the homeless receive 75% of its funding
from<00:05:40.620> private<00:05:40.710> donations<00:05:42.379> the<00:05:43.379> way<00:05:43.939> the
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from private donations the way the
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from private donations the way the
United<00:05:45.240> States<00:05:45.419> is<00:05:45.599> set<00:05:45.810> up<00:05:45.990> is<00:05:46.199> that<00:05:46.469> part<00:05:46.979> of
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United States is set up is that part of
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United States is set up is that part of
the<00:05:47.279> safety<00:05:47.699> net<00:05:47.729> system<00:05:48.150> is<00:05:48.900> provided<00:05:49.139> by
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the safety net system is provided by
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the safety net system is provided by
private<00:05:50.120> providers<00:05:51.120> like<00:05:51.629> the<00:05:51.900> shelter<00:05:52.229> we
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private providers like the shelter we
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private providers like the shelter we
are<00:05:52.919> a<00:05:52.949> private<00:05:53.219> 501c3<00:05:54.029> you<00:05:54.810> know<00:05:54.930> we're<00:05:55.050> not
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are a private 501c3 you know we're not
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are a private 501c3 you know we're not
part<00:05:55.499> of<00:05:55.729> of<00:05:56.729> any<00:05:56.939> governmental<00:05:57.330> agency<00:05:58.069> it's
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part of of any governmental agency it's
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part of of any governmental agency it's
very<00:05:59.189> different<00:05:59.460> than<00:05:59.639> if<00:06:00.150> you're<00:06:00.300> in<00:06:00.389> Sweden
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very different than if you're in Sweden
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very different than if you're in Sweden
or<00:06:00.900> in<00:06:00.990> France<00:06:01.289> where<00:06:02.009> the<00:06:02.300> government<00:06:03.300> has
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or in France where the government has
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or in France where the government has
taken<00:06:03.960> on<00:06:04.080> the<00:06:04.199> role<00:06:04.379> of<00:06:04.439> providing<00:06:04.979> that
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taken on the role of providing that
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taken on the role of providing that
safety<00:06:05.909> net<00:06:05.939> in<00:06:07.009> totality<00:06:08.240> the<00:06:09.240> government<00:06:09.870> in
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safety net in totality the government in
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safety net in totality the government in
the<00:06:09.990> United<00:06:10.050> States<00:06:10.319> does<00:06:10.650> a<00:06:10.680> lot<00:06:11.000> but<00:06:12.000> it's
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the United States does a lot but it's
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the United States does a lot but it's
it's<00:06:12.389> not<00:06:12.659> the<00:06:13.229> comprehensive<00:06:14.689> approach<00:06:15.689> that
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it's not the comprehensive approach that
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it's not the comprehensive approach that
is<00:06:16.199> used<00:06:16.560> in<00:06:16.889> European<00:06:17.699> countries<00:06:18.740> if<00:06:19.740> we
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is used in European countries if we
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is used in European countries if we
weren't<00:06:20.189> here<00:06:20.310> doing<00:06:20.669> it<00:06:20.819> the<00:06:21.060> government's
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weren't here doing it the government's
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weren't here doing it the government's
not<00:06:21.659> picking<00:06:22.020> up<00:06:22.110> the<00:06:22.259> work<00:06:22.439> so<00:06:22.680> it<00:06:22.770> has<00:06:22.919> to
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not picking up the work so it has to
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not picking up the work so it has to
rely<00:06:23.610> on<00:06:23.639> private<00:06:24.979> nonprofits<00:06:25.979> or<00:06:26.099> just
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rely on private nonprofits or just
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rely on private nonprofits or just
concerned<00:06:26.879> individuals<00:06:27.509> we're<00:06:27.750> going<00:06:27.930> to<00:06:27.990> go
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concerned individuals we're going to go
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concerned individuals we're going to go
out<00:06:28.110> and<00:06:28.800> do<00:06:29.009> the<00:06:29.039> work
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redistributing<00:06:33.889> income<00:06:34.270> will<00:06:35.270> mean<00:06:35.419> taxing
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redistributing income will mean taxing
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redistributing income will mean taxing
people<00:06:36.139> who<00:06:36.830> may<00:06:37.009> then<00:06:37.190> decide<00:06:37.580> it<00:06:37.940> isn't
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people who may then decide it isn't
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people who may then decide it isn't
worth<00:06:38.539> working<00:06:39.400> they<00:06:40.400> take<00:06:40.610> more<00:06:40.819> leisure
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worth working they take more leisure
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worth working they take more leisure
instead<00:06:41.539> produce<00:06:42.470> less<00:06:42.770> and<00:06:43.330> society<00:06:44.330> is
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instead produce less and society is
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instead produce less and society is
pouring<00:06:45.400> that's<00:06:46.400> why<00:06:46.550> some<00:06:46.819> are<00:06:46.849> so<00:06:47.090> keen<00:06:47.360> on
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pouring that's why some are so keen on
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pouring that's why some are so keen on
the<00:06:47.660> idea<00:06:47.690> of<00:06:48.169> the<00:06:48.319> Laffer<00:06:48.710> curve<00:06:50.080> what's<00:06:51.080> the
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the idea of the Laffer curve what's the
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the idea of the Laffer curve what's the
relationship<00:06:51.680> between<00:06:52.360> the<00:06:53.360> tax<00:06:53.690> rate<00:06:54.050> and
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relationship between the tax rate and
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relationship between the tax rate and
the<00:06:55.310> amount<00:06:55.580> of<00:06:55.699> government<00:06:56.240> revenue
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the amount of government revenue
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the amount of government revenue
received<00:06:57.729> art<00:06:58.729> laffer<00:06:59.150> was<00:06:59.300> an<00:06:59.419> American
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received art laffer was an American
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received art laffer was an American
economist<00:07:00.319> and<00:07:00.919> he<00:07:01.099> was<00:07:01.250> sitting<00:07:01.490> in<00:07:01.520> a
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economist and he was sitting in a
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economist and he was sitting in a
cocktail<00:07:01.849> bar<00:07:02.270> like<00:07:02.539> this<00:07:02.720> one<00:07:02.930> day<00:07:03.139> talking
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cocktail bar like this one day talking
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cocktail bar like this one day talking
to<00:07:03.979> the<00:07:04.069> economic<00:07:04.190> advisor<00:07:04.880> to<00:07:05.180> the<00:07:05.210> president
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to the economic advisor to the president
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to the economic advisor to the president
during<00:07:06.020> a<00:07:06.199> recession<00:07:06.590> and<00:07:07.370> he<00:07:07.460> was<00:07:07.610> asked<00:07:07.940> what
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during a recession and he was asked what
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during a recession and he was asked what
should<00:07:09.020> we<00:07:09.139> do<00:07:09.470> about<00:07:09.770> tax<00:07:10.729> rates<00:07:11.030> and<00:07:11.830> I
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should we do about tax rates and I
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should we do about tax rates and I
laugher<00:07:13.370> said<00:07:14.199> you<00:07:15.199> should<00:07:15.440> cut<00:07:15.710> them<00:07:16.360> and<00:07:17.360> he
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laugher said you should cut them and he
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laugher said you should cut them and he
explained<00:07:17.930> it<00:07:18.080> like<00:07:18.110> this<00:07:18.440> he<00:07:18.500> pushed<00:07:18.889> his
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explained it like this he pushed his
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explained it like this he pushed his
drink<00:07:19.310> aside<00:07:19.669> took<00:07:20.630> a<00:07:20.659> cocktail<00:07:21.259> napkin<00:07:21.770> and
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drink aside took a cocktail napkin and
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drink aside took a cocktail napkin and
drew<00:07:22.639> a<00:07:22.669> diagram<00:07:23.000> which<00:07:23.569> has<00:07:23.720> become<00:07:24.050> the
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drew a diagram which has become the
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drew a diagram which has become the
stuff<00:07:24.500> of<00:07:24.710> economic<00:07:25.190> textbooks<00:07:26.830> he<00:07:27.830> said<00:07:28.190> if
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stuff of economic textbooks he said if
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stuff of economic textbooks he said if
you<00:07:29.360> plot<00:07:29.630> the<00:07:29.870> tax<00:07:30.229> rate<00:07:30.620> along<00:07:31.009> here<00:07:31.370> from
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you plot the tax rate along here from
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you plot the tax rate along here from
zero<00:07:32.030> to<00:07:32.150> a<00:07:32.330> hundred<00:07:32.419> percent<00:07:32.840> and<00:07:33.349> the<00:07:33.699> tax
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zero to a hundred percent and the tax
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zero to a hundred percent and the tax
take<00:07:35.150> up<00:07:35.479> here<00:07:35.990> and<00:07:37.330> you<00:07:38.330> set<00:07:38.570> a<00:07:38.599> zero<00:07:39.199> rate<00:07:39.530> of
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take up here and you set a zero rate of
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take up here and you set a zero rate of
tax<00:07:39.979> the<00:07:40.250> government<00:07:40.639> gets<00:07:40.820> no<00:07:41.000> revenue<00:07:41.469> if
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tax the government gets no revenue if
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tax the government gets no revenue if
you<00:07:42.770> raise<00:07:43.070> the<00:07:43.370> tax<00:07:43.610> rate<00:07:43.909> government
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you raise the tax rate government
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you raise the tax rate government
revenue<00:07:45.289> increases<00:07:45.759> but<00:07:46.759> soon<00:07:47.150> the
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revenue increases but soon the
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revenue increases but soon the
disincentive<00:07:48.830> effects<00:07:49.430> of<00:07:49.870> increasing<00:07:50.870> taxes
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disincentive effects of increasing taxes
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disincentive effects of increasing taxes
causes<00:07:52.849> people<00:07:53.060> to<00:07:53.270> work<00:07:53.570> less<00:07:53.900> hard<00:07:53.930> and<00:07:54.530> the
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causes people to work less hard and the
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causes people to work less hard and the
government<00:07:55.460> begins<00:07:55.699> to<00:07:55.940> receive<00:07:56.300> less
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government begins to receive less
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government begins to receive less
revenue<00:07:56.860> till<00:07:57.860> when<00:07:58.130> you<00:07:58.280> reach<00:07:58.550> a<00:07:58.729> hundred
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revenue till when you reach a hundred
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revenue till when you reach a hundred
percent<00:07:59.389> tax<00:08:00.139> rate<00:08:00.610> nobody<00:08:01.610> does<00:08:01.819> anything
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percent tax rate nobody does anything
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percent tax rate nobody does anything
and<00:08:02.620> government<00:08:03.620> revenue<00:08:04.039> is<00:08:04.400> reduced<00:08:05.030> to
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and government revenue is reduced to
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and government revenue is reduced to
zero<00:08:05.979> on<00:08:06.979> the<00:08:07.190> diagram<00:08:07.610> which<00:08:07.849> we've<00:08:08.030> just
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zero on the diagram which we've just
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zero on the diagram which we've just
drawn<00:08:08.569> is<00:08:09.380> now<00:08:09.710> in<00:08:10.069> many<00:08:10.909> textbooks<00:08:11.409> and
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drawn is now in many textbooks and
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drawn is now in many textbooks and
explains<00:08:12.949> why<00:08:13.280> in<00:08:13.520> the<00:08:13.669> lap<00:08:13.969> review<00:08:14.469> using<00:08:15.469> the
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explains why in the lap review using the
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explains why in the lap review using the
Laffer<00:08:16.280> curve<00:08:16.360> it's<00:08:17.360> often<00:08:17.810> a<00:08:17.900> good<00:08:17.930> idea<00:08:18.169> for
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Laffer curve it's often a good idea for
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Laffer curve it's often a good idea for
governments<00:08:19.370> not<00:08:19.580> to<00:08:19.699> increase<00:08:20.030> taxes<00:08:20.569> but<00:08:21.229> to
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governments not to increase taxes but to
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governments not to increase taxes but to
decrease<00:08:21.800> them<00:08:23.050> what<00:08:24.050> is<00:08:24.169> true<00:08:24.409> of<00:08:24.500> taxes<00:08:25.009> on
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decrease them what is true of taxes on
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decrease them what is true of taxes on
labor<00:08:25.490> is<00:08:26.030> in<00:08:26.449> principle<00:08:26.659> true<00:08:27.229> of<00:08:27.380> taxes<00:08:27.889> on
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labor is in principle true of taxes on
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labor is in principle true of taxes on
profits<00:08:28.460> as<00:08:28.849> well<00:08:29.090> a<00:08:29.710> profits<00:08:30.710> tax<00:08:30.949> is<00:08:31.280> likely
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profits as well a profits tax is likely
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profits as well a profits tax is likely
to<00:08:32.060> reduce<00:08:32.270> investment<00:08:33.169> demand<00:08:33.349> if<00:08:33.770> there's
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to reduce investment demand if there's
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to reduce investment demand if there's
less<00:08:34.909> investment<00:08:35.450> there's<00:08:36.200> less<00:08:36.640> profits<00:08:37.640> if
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less investment there's less profits if
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less investment there's less profits if
there's<00:08:38.300> less<00:08:38.479> prophets<00:08:39.050> there's<00:08:39.529> less
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there's less prophets there's less
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there's less prophets there's less
government<00:08:40.039> revenue
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government revenue
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government revenue
let's<00:08:42.510> have<00:08:42.690> a<00:08:42.750> look<00:08:42.870> at<00:08:42.959> some<00:08:43.169> data<00:08:43.469> to<00:08:43.950> see<00:08:44.610> if
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let's have a look at some data to see if
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let's have a look at some data to see if
we<00:08:44.850> can<00:08:45.029> see<00:08:45.330> how<00:08:45.839> true<00:08:46.170> this<00:08:46.350> is<00:08:48.230> brilliant
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we can see how true this is brilliant
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we can see how true this is brilliant
hasit<00:08:49.800> used<00:08:50.040> nonlinear<00:08:50.910> regression<00:08:51.180> methods
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hasit used nonlinear regression methods
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hasit used nonlinear regression methods
to<00:08:52.350> test<00:08:52.589> the<00:08:52.709> Laffer<00:08:53.010> curve<00:08:53.040> relationship
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to test the Laffer curve relationship
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to test the Laffer curve relationship
for<00:08:54.149> corporate<00:08:54.540> taxes<00:08:55.050> is<00:08:55.490> there<00:08:56.490> a<00:08:56.520> rate<00:08:56.880> at
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for corporate taxes is there a rate at
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for corporate taxes is there a rate at
which<00:08:57.420> increases<00:08:58.380> in<00:08:58.529> business<00:08:59.070> taxes<00:08:59.640> have
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which increases in business taxes have
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which increases in business taxes have
such<00:09:00.750> a<00:09:00.779> disincentive<00:09:01.470> effect<00:09:02.430> that
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such a disincentive effect that
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such a disincentive effect that
government<00:09:03.870> revenue<00:09:04.760> declines<00:09:06.649> they<00:09:07.649> tested
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government revenue declines they tested
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government revenue declines they tested
this<00:09:08.160> question<00:09:08.580> by<00:09:08.730> looking<00:09:08.760> at<00:09:09.149> 29<00:09:09.950> OECD
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this question by looking at 29 OECD
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this question by looking at 29 OECD
countries<00:09:11.490> in<00:09:11.640> two<00:09:12.300> separate<00:09:12.690> periods<00:09:13.110> the
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countries in two separate periods the
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countries in two separate periods the
earlier<00:09:14.459> period<00:09:16.100> 1985<00:09:17.100> to<00:09:17.630> 1989<00:09:18.630> a<00:09:19.550> letter
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earlier period 1985 to 1989 a letter
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earlier period 1985 to 1989 a letter
curve<00:09:20.880> relationship<00:09:21.540> is<00:09:21.720> evident<00:09:22.110> with<00:09:22.290> a
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curve relationship is evident with a
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curve relationship is evident with a
peek<00:09:22.649> at<00:09:23.190> a<00:09:23.250> tax<00:09:23.580> rate<00:09:23.820> of<00:09:23.850> around<00:09:24.089> thirty<00:09:24.630> four
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peek at a tax rate of around thirty four
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peek at a tax rate of around thirty four
percent<00:09:26.450> the<00:09:27.450> tax<00:09:27.690> later<00:09:27.930> is<00:09:28.140> lagged<00:09:28.589> five
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percent the tax later is lagged five
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percent the tax later is lagged five
years<00:09:29.339> because<00:09:29.730> it<00:09:30.240> takes<00:09:30.600> some<00:09:30.870> time<00:09:31.110> for
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years because it takes some time for
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years because it takes some time for
companies<00:09:31.830> to<00:09:31.860> alter<00:09:32.580> investment<00:09:33.240> plans<00:09:33.480> when
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companies to alter investment plans when
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companies to alter investment plans when
tax<00:09:34.410> rates<00:09:34.680> change
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none<00:09:38.149> of<00:09:38.179> the<00:09:38.449> period<00:09:39.309> 2002<00:09:40.309> 2005<00:09:41.529> where<00:09:42.529> a
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none of the period 2002 2005 where a
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none of the period 2002 2005 where a
relationship<00:09:43.279> still<00:09:43.550> holds<00:09:43.999> but<00:09:44.149> the
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relationship still holds but the
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relationship still holds but the
inflection<00:09:44.869> point<00:09:45.139> is<00:09:45.319> now<00:09:45.499> lower<00:09:45.860> at<00:09:46.160> around
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inflection point is now lower at around
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inflection point is now lower at around
twenty<00:09:47.209> eight<00:09:47.360> percent<00:09:48.999> notice<00:09:49.999> also<00:09:50.149> that
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twenty eight percent notice also that
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twenty eight percent notice also that
the<00:09:51.079> curve<00:09:51.319> is<00:09:51.529> flatter<00:09:51.920> for<00:09:52.309> the<00:09:52.399> earlier
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the curve is flatter for the earlier
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the curve is flatter for the earlier
period<00:09:53.179> so<00:09:53.809> that<00:09:53.839> the<00:09:54.079> cost<00:09:54.410> in<00:09:54.769> lost
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period so that the cost in lost
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period so that the cost in lost
government<00:09:55.759> revenue<00:09:56.209> is<00:09:56.360> greater<00:09:56.839> for<00:09:57.199> having
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government revenue is greater for having
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government revenue is greater for having
rates<00:09:57.980> above<00:09:58.249> the<00:09:58.399> peak<00:09:58.749> capital<00:09:59.749> has<00:09:59.839> become
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rates above the peak capital has become
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rates above the peak capital has become
more<00:10:00.529> mobile<00:10:00.800> between<00:10:01.399> countries<00:10:01.639> over<00:10:02.089> time
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more mobile between countries over time
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more mobile between countries over time
so<00:10:02.990> this<00:10:03.170> result<00:10:03.619> is<00:10:03.800> unsurprising
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so this result is unsurprising
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so this result is unsurprising
but<00:10:06.860> how<00:10:07.010> good<00:10:07.250> a<00:10:07.279> fit<00:10:07.579> is<00:10:07.760> the<00:10:07.940> data<00:10:08.649> will<00:10:09.649> give
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but how good a fit is the data will give
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but how good a fit is the data will give
just<00:10:10.070> a<00:10:10.160> few<00:10:10.430> of<00:10:10.550> their<00:10:10.670> results<00:10:11.180> the<00:10:12.139> fast
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just a few of their results the fast
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just a few of their results the fast
column<00:10:13.040> shows<00:10:13.940> the<00:10:14.000> results<00:10:14.570> for<00:10:14.750> all
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column shows the results for all
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column shows the results for all
countries<00:10:15.350> looked<00:10:15.860> at<00:10:16.630> the<00:10:17.630> second<00:10:18.170> when
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countries looked at the second when
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countries looked at the second when
they've<00:10:19.579> excluded<00:10:20.480> outlier<00:10:21.380> countries
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they've excluded outlier countries
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they've excluded outlier countries
countries<00:10:22.339> that<00:10:22.610> are<00:10:22.880> unusual<00:10:23.170> for<00:10:24.170> various
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countries that are unusual for various
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countries that are unusual for various
reasons<00:10:24.620> and<00:10:26.110> excluding<00:10:27.110> these<00:10:27.260> countries
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reasons and excluding these countries
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reasons and excluding these countries
makes<00:10:27.980> little<00:10:28.250> difference<00:10:28.459> to<00:10:28.730> the<00:10:28.910> results
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makes little difference to the results
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makes little difference to the results
as<00:10:29.800> you<00:10:30.800> can<00:10:30.949> see<00:10:31.250> from<00:10:31.459> the<00:10:31.639> table<00:10:32.149> the
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as you can see from the table the
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as you can see from the table the
r-squared<00:10:32.870> is<00:10:33.050> quite<00:10:33.350> low<00:10:33.709> but<00:10:34.070> the<00:10:34.880> tax
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r-squared is quite low but the tax
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r-squared is quite low but the tax
coefficient<00:10:35.959> is<00:10:36.079> significant<00:10:36.769> not<00:10:36.860> just<00:10:37.279> at
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coefficient is significant not just at
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coefficient is significant not just at
the<00:10:37.579> five<00:10:37.820> percent<00:10:38.389> level<00:10:38.709> perhaps<00:10:39.709> the<00:10:39.860> most
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the five percent level perhaps the most
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the five percent level perhaps the most
common<00:10:40.430> choice<00:10:40.699> of<00:10:40.910> significance<00:10:41.480> level<00:10:41.839> for
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common choice of significance level for
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common choice of significance level for
regression<00:10:42.350> analysis<00:10:43.040> but<00:10:43.970> at<00:10:44.060> the<00:10:44.240> one
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regression analysis but at the one
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regression analysis but at the one
percent<00:10:45.050> level<00:10:46.089> so<00:10:47.089> this<00:10:47.240> important<00:10:47.899> evidence
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percent level so this important evidence
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percent level so this important evidence
about<00:10:48.589> the<00:10:48.620> robustness<00:10:49.279> of<00:10:49.519> the<00:10:49.579> Laffer<00:10:49.970> curve
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about the robustness of the Laffer curve
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about the robustness of the Laffer curve
concept<00:10:50.889> because<00:10:51.889> regression<00:10:52.610> analysis<00:10:53.209> can
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concept because regression analysis can
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concept because regression analysis can
handle<00:10:54.459> nonlinear<00:10:55.459> relationships<00:10:56.209> as<00:10:56.420> well
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handle nonlinear relationships as well
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handle nonlinear relationships as well
as<00:10:57.110> linear<00:10:57.320> ones
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let's<00:11:01.230> look<00:11:01.440> at<00:11:01.620> some<00:11:01.770> statistical<00:11:02.460> analysis
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let's look at some statistical analysis
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let's look at some statistical analysis
which<00:11:03.270> was<00:11:03.480> undertaken<00:11:04.230> with<00:11:04.410> some
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which was undertaken with some
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which was undertaken with some
considerable<00:11:05.310> care<00:11:05.850> and<00:11:06.290> see<00:11:07.290> what<00:11:07.500> happens
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considerable care and see what happens
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considerable care and see what happens
to<00:11:08.400> the<00:11:08.520> distribution<00:11:08.880> of<00:11:09.300> income<00:11:09.480> when<00:11:10.470> mean
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to the distribution of income when mean
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to the distribution of income when mean
average<00:11:11.280> incomes<00:11:12.030> are<00:11:12.420> falling<00:11:12.930> during<00:11:13.200> a
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average incomes are falling during a
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average incomes are falling during a
recession<00:11:14.210> when<00:11:15.210> such<00:11:15.390> a<00:11:15.510> crisis<00:11:15.960> comes<00:11:16.200> to<00:11:16.380> an
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recession when such a crisis comes to an
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recession when such a crisis comes to an
economy<00:11:16.740> while<00:11:17.400> averaging<00:11:17.640> comes<00:11:18.330> for<00:11:18.690> it's
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economy while averaging comes for it's
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economy while averaging comes for it's
the<00:11:19.890> poor<00:11:20.280> who<00:11:20.640> do<00:11:20.850> relatively<00:11:21.690> badly<00:11:22.580> we<00:11:23.580> can
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the poor who do relatively badly we can
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the poor who do relatively badly we can
see<00:11:23.910> this<00:11:24.030> particularly<00:11:24.690> with<00:11:25.020> reference<00:11:25.200> to
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see this particularly with reference to
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see this particularly with reference to
the<00:11:25.680> USA<00:11:27.350> the<00:11:28.350> figure<00:11:28.650> plots<00:11:28.920> data<00:11:29.190> over<00:11:29.610> time
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the USA the figure plots data over time
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the USA the figure plots data over time
for<00:11:30.180> various<00:11:30.600> percentiles<00:11:31.320> in<00:11:31.650> household
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for various percentiles in household
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for various percentiles in household
earnings<00:11:32.640> in<00:11:32.820> the<00:11:32.940> USA<00:11:33.650> the<00:11:34.650> blue<00:11:34.920> shaded
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earnings in the USA the blue shaded
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earnings in the USA the blue shaded
areas<00:11:35.880> are<00:11:36.060> periods<00:11:36.480> of<00:11:36.720> recession<00:11:36.900> in<00:11:37.410> the
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areas are periods of recession in the
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areas are periods of recession in the
economy<00:11:38.390> it<00:11:39.390> doesn't<00:11:39.690> show<00:11:39.870> all<00:11:40.170> income<00:11:40.770> it's
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economy it doesn't show all income it's
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economy it doesn't show all income it's
only<00:11:41.580> income<00:11:42.210> from<00:11:42.360> labor<00:11:42.720> and<00:11:43.170> those<00:11:44.070> at<00:11:44.280> the
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only income from labor and those at the
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only income from labor and those at the
bottom<00:11:45.000> of<00:11:45.090> the<00:11:45.180> distribution<00:11:45.510> get<00:11:46.380> help<00:11:46.590> from
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bottom of the distribution get help from
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bottom of the distribution get help from
unemployment<00:11:46.980> benefits<00:11:47.820> and<00:11:48.030> other
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unemployment benefits and other
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unemployment benefits and other
transfers<00:11:49.260> which<00:11:49.860> tend<00:11:50.190> to<00:11:50.310> rise<00:11:50.580> in<00:11:50.850> a
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transfers which tend to rise in a
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transfers which tend to rise in a
recession<00:11:51.300> help<00:11:52.230> not<00:11:53.010> shown<00:11:53.370> in<00:11:53.400> this<00:11:53.700> data
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recession help not shown in this data
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recession help not shown in this data
in<00:11:55.929> the<00:11:56.139> figure<00:11:56.459> we<00:11:57.459> taken<00:11:57.850> the<00:11:57.939> data<00:11:58.209> and
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in the figure we taken the data and
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in the figure we taken the data and
divided<00:11:59.110> for<00:11:59.319> each<00:11:59.559> year<00:12:00.220> each<00:12:00.689> percentiles
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divided for each year each percentiles
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divided for each year each percentiles
observation<00:12:02.499> by<00:12:02.949> the<00:12:03.009> data<00:12:03.309> for<00:12:03.639> the<00:12:03.730> first
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observation by the data for the first
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observation by the data for the first
year<00:12:04.329> of<00:12:04.360> the<00:12:04.540> analysis<00:12:05.759> 1967<00:12:07.199> this
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year of the analysis 1967 this
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year of the analysis 1967 this
normalization<00:12:09.220> procedure<00:12:10.089> means<00:12:10.480> that<00:12:10.689> all
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normalization procedure means that all
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normalization procedure means that all
groups<00:12:11.290> would<00:12:11.529> begin<00:12:11.829> with<00:12:11.889> a<00:12:12.100> number<00:12:12.369> of<00:12:12.489> one
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groups would begin with a number of one
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groups would begin with a number of one
but<00:12:13.749> here<00:12:14.139> we've<00:12:14.679> taken<00:12:14.980> the<00:12:15.220> logarithms<00:12:15.759> of
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but here we've taken the logarithms of
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but here we've taken the logarithms of
the<00:12:16.179> series<00:12:16.799> remember<00:12:17.799> that<00:12:18.100> the<00:12:18.279> log<00:12:18.549> of<00:12:18.730> 1<00:12:18.910> is
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the series remember that the log of 1 is
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the series remember that the log of 1 is
0<00:12:19.350> so<00:12:20.350> that<00:12:20.379> the<00:12:20.649> starting<00:12:21.160> point<00:12:21.429> is<00:12:22.360> 0<00:12:23.160> now<00:12:24.160> we
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0 so that the starting point is 0 now we
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0 so that the starting point is 0 now we
can<00:12:24.459> observe<00:12:24.730> what<00:12:24.999> happens<00:12:25.149> over<00:12:25.629> time<00:12:25.660> to
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can observe what happens over time to
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can observe what happens over time to
the<00:12:26.259> distribution<00:12:26.949> between<00:12:27.100> groups<00:12:27.809> notice
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the distribution between groups notice
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the distribution between groups notice
in<00:12:28.959> particular<00:12:29.230> how<00:12:29.619> households<00:12:29.889> in<00:12:30.369> the
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in particular how households in the
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in particular how households in the
bottom<00:12:30.879> percentiles<00:12:31.499> experience<00:12:32.499> the
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bottom percentiles experience the
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bottom percentiles experience the
biggest<00:12:32.980> relative<00:12:33.819> falls<00:12:34.149> during<00:12:34.569> a
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biggest relative falls during a
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biggest relative falls during a
recession<00:12:35.790> these<00:12:36.790> declines<00:12:37.119> can<00:12:37.480> be
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recession these declines can be
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recession these declines can be
persistent<00:12:38.110> the<00:12:38.619> lowest<00:12:39.069> percentile
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persistent the lowest percentile
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persistent the lowest percentile
earnings<00:12:40.149> fell<00:12:40.360> twenty<00:12:40.839> percent<00:12:41.199> in<00:12:41.470> the
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earnings fell twenty percent in the
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earnings fell twenty percent in the
recession<00:12:42.220> of<00:12:42.459> the<00:12:42.489> early<00:12:42.579> 80s<00:12:42.970> and<00:12:43.929> only
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recession of the early 80s and only
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recession of the early 80s and only
return<00:12:44.559> to<00:12:44.769> pre-recession<00:12:45.220> levels<00:12:45.879> almost
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return to pre-recession levels almost
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return to pre-recession levels almost
two<00:12:46.749> decades<00:12:46.959> later
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the<00:12:49.860> data<00:12:50.070> is<00:12:50.310> log<00:12:50.670> normalized<00:12:51.360> to<00:12:51.630> enable<00:12:52.020> us
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the data is log normalized to enable us
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the data is log normalized to enable us
to<00:12:52.110> see<00:12:52.530> in<00:12:52.770> the<00:12:53.250> graph<00:12:53.550> the<00:12:53.940> proportionate
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to see in the graph the proportionate
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to see in the graph the proportionate
changes<00:12:55.320> between<00:12:55.800> the<00:12:56.130> percentiles<00:12:56.730> over
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changes between the percentiles over
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changes between the percentiles over
time<00:12:57.450> rather<00:12:57.660> than<00:12:58.290> absolute<00:12:59.070> changes
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time rather than absolute changes
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time rather than absolute changes
now<00:13:01.939> Labor<00:13:02.269> earnings<00:13:02.810> are<00:13:02.990> not<00:13:03.139> the<00:13:03.259> only
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now Labor earnings are not the only
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now Labor earnings are not the only
source<00:13:03.680> of<00:13:03.860> income<00:13:04.040> for<00:13:04.249> households<00:13:04.879> in
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source of income for households in
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source of income for households in
particular<00:13:05.420> at<00:13:06.110> the<00:13:06.230> bottom<00:13:06.560> of<00:13:06.649> the<00:13:06.800> earnings
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particular at the bottom of the earnings
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particular at the bottom of the earnings
distribution<00:13:07.810> governments<00:13:08.810> and<00:13:09.019> private
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distribution governments and private
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distribution governments and private
transfers<00:13:10.370> such<00:13:10.670> as<00:13:10.790> unemployment<00:13:11.300> insurance
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transfers such as unemployment insurance
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transfers such as unemployment insurance
and<00:13:12.199> so<00:13:12.410> on<00:13:12.550> tends<00:13:13.550> to<00:13:13.939> rise<00:13:14.360> when<00:13:14.749> earnings
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and so on tends to rise when earnings
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and so on tends to rise when earnings
fall<00:13:15.470> thereby<00:13:16.339> mitigating<00:13:17.180> widening
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fall thereby mitigating widening
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fall thereby mitigating widening
earnings<00:13:18.439> inequality
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one<00:13:22.910> issue<00:13:23.090> that<00:13:23.270> society<00:13:23.990> has<00:13:24.020> to<00:13:24.410> grapple
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one issue that society has to grapple
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one issue that society has to grapple
with<00:13:24.800> is<00:13:25.160> whether<00:13:25.850> to<00:13:26.030> worry<00:13:26.270> about<00:13:26.450> the
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with is whether to worry about the
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with is whether to worry about the
distribution<00:13:27.080> of<00:13:27.470> income<00:13:27.620> or<00:13:28.460> only<00:13:28.940> to
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distribution of income or only to
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distribution of income or only to
concern<00:13:29.540> itself<00:13:29.690> with<00:13:29.990> the<00:13:30.230> poor<00:13:31.450> they're<00:13:32.450> not
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concern itself with the poor they're not
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concern itself with the poor they're not
the<00:13:32.990> same<00:13:33.020> thing<00:13:33.560> let<00:13:34.220> me<00:13:34.370> show<00:13:34.580> you<00:13:34.610> how<00:13:36.310> in
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the same thing let me show you how in
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the same thing let me show you how in
several<00:13:37.730> previous<00:13:38.030> films<00:13:38.570> I<00:13:38.660> introduced<00:13:39.200> you
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several previous films I introduced you
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several previous films I introduced you
to<00:13:39.530> my<00:13:39.680> desert<00:13:40.160> island<00:13:40.340> economy<00:13:41.260> in<00:13:42.260> one<00:13:43.070> of
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to my desert island economy in one of
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to my desert island economy in one of
those<00:13:43.280> films<00:13:43.700> three<00:13:43.970> of<00:13:44.060> us<00:13:44.180> worked<00:13:44.480> and
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those films three of us worked and
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those films three of us worked and
exchanged<00:13:45.560> and<00:13:45.740> produced<00:13:46.070> income<00:13:46.540> though<00:13:47.540> it
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exchanged and produced income though it
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exchanged and produced income though it
wasn't<00:13:47.870> evenly<00:13:48.380> distributed<00:13:48.920> we<00:13:49.880> weren't<00:13:50.060> had
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wasn't evenly distributed we weren't had
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wasn't evenly distributed we weren't had
a<00:13:50.300> gini<00:13:50.630> coefficient<00:13:50.870> to<00:13:51.410> give<00:13:51.560> us<00:13:51.680> a<00:13:51.800> value
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a gini coefficient to give us a value
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a gini coefficient to give us a value
for<00:13:52.490> the<00:13:52.720> evenness<00:13:53.720> or<00:13:53.870> otherwise<00:13:54.350> of<00:13:54.650> our
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for the evenness or otherwise of our
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for the evenness or otherwise of our
income<00:13:55.250> distribution<00:13:56.320> now<00:13:57.320> here's<00:13:57.620> another
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income distribution now here's another
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income distribution now here's another
small<00:13:58.460> island<00:13:59.060> economy<00:13:59.330> with<00:13:59.720> which<00:13:59.870> we<00:14:00.050> trade
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small island economy with which we trade
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small island economy with which we trade
it<00:14:01.520> also<00:14:01.790> has<00:14:02.270> a<00:14:02.300> total<00:14:02.720> income<00:14:03.020> of<00:14:03.200> a<00:14:03.290> hundred
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it also has a total income of a hundred
00:14:03.680 --> 00:14:07.450 align:start position:0%
it also has a total income of a hundred
euros<00:14:04.240> also<00:14:05.240> has<00:14:05.450> three<00:14:05.660> people<00:14:06.310> but<00:14:07.310> the
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euros also has three people but the
00:14:07.460 --> 00:14:12.370 align:start position:0%
euros also has three people but the
income<00:14:08.060> is<00:14:08.510> shared<00:14:08.990> out<00:14:09.200> differently<00:14:11.380> the
00:14:12.370 --> 00:14:12.380 align:start position:0%
income is shared out differently the
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income is shared out differently the
table<00:14:12.740> shows<00:14:12.920> our<00:14:13.160> Island<00:14:13.580> and<00:14:13.700> how<00:14:13.910> the<00:14:13.970> two
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table shows our Island and how the two
00:14:14.270 --> 00:14:16.000 align:start position:0%
table shows our Island and how the two
societies<00:14:14.870> weekly<00:14:15.380> income<00:14:15.530> is<00:14:15.860> distributed
00:14:16.000 --> 00:14:16.010 align:start position:0%
societies weekly income is distributed
00:14:16.010 --> 00:14:19.590 align:start position:0%
societies weekly income is distributed
if<00:14:16.850> you<00:14:17.840> wish<00:14:17.990> you<00:14:18.140> can<00:14:18.260> go<00:14:18.440> back<00:14:18.620> to<00:14:18.650> film<00:14:19.010> 15
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if you wish you can go back to film 15
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if you wish you can go back to film 15
calculate<00:14:20.600> the<00:14:20.750> Gini<00:14:20.990> coefficient<00:14:21.740> for<00:14:21.860> the
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calculate the Gini coefficient for the
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calculate the Gini coefficient for the
other<00:14:22.190> Island<00:14:22.730> and<00:14:23.110> establish<00:14:24.110> that<00:14:24.530> it's
00:14:24.700 --> 00:14:24.710 align:start position:0%
other Island and establish that it's
00:14:24.710 --> 00:14:27.480 align:start position:0%
other Island and establish that it's
more<00:14:24.920> evenly<00:14:25.430> divided
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more evenly divided
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more evenly divided
with<00:14:28.120> the<00:14:28.209> formula<00:14:28.660> we<00:14:28.779> used<00:14:29.020> in<00:14:29.230> an<00:14:29.350> earlier
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with the formula we used in an earlier
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with the formula we used in an earlier
film<00:14:30.040> we<00:14:30.610> find<00:14:30.880> our<00:14:31.209> island<00:14:31.750> has<00:14:32.290> a
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film we find our island has a
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film we find our island has a
coefficient<00:14:32.680> of<00:14:33.450> 20<00:14:34.450> 6.67<00:14:35.550> the<00:14:36.550> other<00:14:36.730> Island
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coefficient of 20 6.67 the other Island
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coefficient of 20 6.67 the other Island
has<00:14:37.660> a<00:14:37.690> coefficient<00:14:38.050> of<00:14:38.560> sixteen<00:14:39.430> point<00:14:39.760> six
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has a coefficient of sixteen point six
00:14:39.850 --> 00:14:43.110 align:start position:0%
has a coefficient of sixteen point six
seven<00:14:40.649> you<00:14:41.649> may<00:14:41.860> recall<00:14:42.010> that<00:14:42.190> the<00:14:42.459> closer<00:14:42.850> to
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seven you may recall that the closer to
00:14:43.120 --> 00:14:45.720 align:start position:0%
seven you may recall that the closer to
one<00:14:43.360> is<00:14:43.540> the<00:14:43.690> coefficient<00:14:43.899> the<00:14:44.890> more<00:14:45.100> evenly
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one is the coefficient the more evenly
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one is the coefficient the more evenly
income<00:14:46.630> is<00:14:46.750> distributed
00:14:49.020 --> 00:14:49.030 align:start position:0%
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but<00:14:49.720> now<00:14:49.870> look<00:14:50.020> at<00:14:50.140> the<00:14:50.230> poorest<00:14:50.680> member<00:14:51.070> in
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but now look at the poorest member in
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but now look at the poorest member in
each<00:14:51.310> of<00:14:51.460> the<00:14:51.550> two<00:14:51.730> societies<00:14:52.440> observe<00:14:53.440> that
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each of the two societies observe that
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each of the two societies observe that
on<00:14:53.770> our<00:14:54.040> Island<00:14:54.730> our<00:14:55.660> poorest<00:14:56.530> member<00:14:57.040> member
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on our Island our poorest member member
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on our Island our poorest member member
3<00:14:58.030> has<00:14:58.870> a<00:14:58.900> twenty-five<00:14:59.650> percent<00:14:59.860> higher
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3 has a twenty-five percent higher
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3 has a twenty-five percent higher
income<00:15:00.700> than<00:15:01.120> on<00:15:01.600> the<00:15:01.750> other<00:15:01.960> Island<00:15:02.260> where
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income than on the other Island where
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income than on the other Island where
income<00:15:02.860> is<00:15:03.220> more<00:15:03.580> evenly<00:15:04.000> distributed
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income is more evenly distributed
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income is more evenly distributed
income<00:15:07.209> distribution<00:15:07.389> and<00:15:08.019> poverty<00:15:08.860> are
00:15:09.150 --> 00:15:09.160 align:start position:0%
income distribution and poverty are
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income distribution and poverty are
closely<00:15:09.999> linked<00:15:10.480> but<00:15:11.379> they<00:15:11.589> are<00:15:11.860> distinct
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closely linked but they are distinct
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closely linked but they are distinct
issues<00:15:14.279> this<00:15:15.279> phenomenon<00:15:15.490> of<00:15:16.149> both<00:15:16.870> the
00:15:17.189 --> 00:15:17.199 align:start position:0%
issues this phenomenon of both the
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issues this phenomenon of both the
income<00:15:17.649> and<00:15:18.040> wealth<00:15:18.600> bifurcation<00:15:19.600> that's
00:15:19.769 --> 00:15:19.779 align:start position:0%
income and wealth bifurcation that's
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income and wealth bifurcation that's
going<00:15:20.050> on<00:15:20.259> in<00:15:20.499> our<00:15:20.620> country<00:15:20.699> personally<00:15:21.699> I
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going on in our country personally I
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going on in our country personally I
don't<00:15:21.819> think<00:15:21.910> is<00:15:22.089> sustainable<00:15:22.629> I<00:15:22.839> think<00:15:23.499> we're
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don't think is sustainable I think we're
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don't think is sustainable I think we're
headed<00:15:24.339> down<00:15:24.490> a<00:15:24.519> path<00:15:24.610> that<00:15:25.209> is<00:15:25.569> going<00:15:26.170> to<00:15:26.259> lead
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headed down a path that is going to lead
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headed down a path that is going to lead
to<00:15:26.439> some<00:15:27.180> real<00:15:28.180> severe<00:15:28.509> problems<00:15:29.579> people<00:15:30.579> have
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to some real severe problems people have
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to some real severe problems people have
argued<00:15:31.029> forever<00:15:31.569> about<00:15:31.779> what<00:15:32.170> constitutes<00:15:32.319> a
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argued forever about what constitutes a
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argued forever about what constitutes a
fair<00:15:33.160> distribution<00:15:33.399> of<00:15:33.910> income<00:15:34.350> we<00:15:35.350> haven't
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fair distribution of income we haven't
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fair distribution of income we haven't
been<00:15:35.709> able<00:15:35.860> to<00:15:36.129> resolve<00:15:36.459> this<00:15:36.759> issue<00:15:36.970> probably
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been able to resolve this issue probably
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been able to resolve this issue probably
no<00:15:38.230> one<00:15:38.379> ever<00:15:38.559> will<00:15:39.089> but<00:15:40.089> if<00:15:40.329> we<00:15:40.720> understand
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no one ever will but if we understand
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no one ever will but if we understand
the<00:15:41.680> statistics<00:15:42.399> at<00:15:42.670> least<00:15:43.629> we're<00:15:43.930> better
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the statistics at least we're better
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the statistics at least we're better
informed<00:15:45.129> to<00:15:45.879> make<00:15:46.059> our<00:15:46.240> own<00:15:46.269> value<00:15:46.870> judgments
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informed to make our own value judgments
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informed to make our own value judgments
statistics<00:15:49.300> unlock<00:15:49.749> your<00:15:49.990> ideas<00:15:50.410> if<00:15:50.829> you<00:15:51.550> look
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statistics unlock your ideas if you look
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statistics unlock your ideas if you look
through<00:15:52.889> for<00:15:53.889> instance<00:15:54.220> the<00:15:54.309> most<00:15:54.699> recent
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through for instance the most recent
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through for instance the most recent
poverty<00:15:55.360> figures<00:15:55.689> and<00:15:56.620> you're<00:15:56.769> trying<00:15:56.980> to
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poverty figures and you're trying to
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poverty figures and you're trying to
understand<00:15:57.639> what<00:15:58.420> it<00:15:58.540> is<00:15:58.569> that<00:15:58.720> your<00:15:59.050> policy
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understand what it is that your policy
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understand what it is that your policy
solutions<00:16:00.009> might<00:16:00.279> be<00:16:00.550> to<00:16:01.180> the<00:16:01.389> problems<00:16:01.779> that
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solutions might be to the problems that
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solutions might be to the problems that
we<00:16:02.079> have<00:16:02.110> with<00:16:02.319> regards<00:16:02.829> to<00:16:02.889> poverty<00:16:03.220> in<00:16:03.399> this
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we have with regards to poverty in this
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we have with regards to poverty in this
country<00:16:03.550> at<00:16:03.910> the<00:16:03.999> moment<00:16:04.029> without
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country at the moment without
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country at the moment without
understanding<00:16:05.379> the<00:16:05.829> figures<00:16:06.249> without<00:16:06.370> really
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understanding the figures without really
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understanding the figures without really
looking<00:16:07.209> at<00:16:07.660> the<00:16:07.779> numbers<00:16:08.589> you<00:16:08.860> could<00:16:09.430> come<00:16:09.639> up
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looking at the numbers you could come up
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looking at the numbers you could come up
with<00:16:09.879> entirely<00:16:10.269> the<00:16:10.540> wrong<00:16:10.660> solution<00:16:11.170> to<00:16:11.679> the
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with entirely the wrong solution to the
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with entirely the wrong solution to the
problem<00:16:12.220> we<00:16:12.819> are<00:16:14.429> bombarded<00:16:15.429> with<00:16:16.209> data<00:16:16.929> of
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problem we are bombarded with data of
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problem we are bombarded with data of
all<00:16:17.379> types<00:16:17.769> much<00:16:18.279> of<00:16:18.459> it<00:16:18.579> used<00:16:18.819> recklessly<00:16:19.540> and
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all types much of it used recklessly and
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all types much of it used recklessly and
people's<00:16:20.800> quote<00:16:21.189> statistic<00:16:21.879> it<00:16:21.999> makes<00:16:22.240> no
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people's quote statistic it makes no
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people's quote statistic it makes no
sense<00:16:22.509> it<00:16:23.110> frustrates<00:16:23.709> me<00:16:23.980> enormously<00:16:24.610> and<00:16:24.910> I
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sense it frustrates me enormously and I
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sense it frustrates me enormously and I
hear<00:16:25.540> people<00:16:25.959> saying<00:16:26.170> something<00:16:26.470> I<00:16:26.499> say
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hear people saying something I say
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hear people saying something I say
that's<00:16:26.829> possibly<00:16:27.490> true<00:16:27.670> I<00:16:28.269> mean<00:16:28.959> have<00:16:29.139> a
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that's possibly true I mean have a
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that's possibly true I mean have a
feeling<00:16:29.800> about<00:16:29.980> data<00:16:30.699> how<00:16:31.389> to<00:16:31.449> analyze<00:16:31.990> data<00:16:32.350> I
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feeling about data how to analyze data I
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feeling about data how to analyze data I
think<00:16:33.069> everybody<00:16:33.610> has<00:16:33.819> to<00:16:33.850> do<00:16:34.149> that<00:16:34.360> and
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think everybody has to do that and
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think everybody has to do that and
therefore<00:16:35.019> statistics<00:16:35.829> and<00:16:36.249> caution
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therefore statistics and caution
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therefore statistics and caution
statistics<00:16:37.329> is<00:16:37.689> the<00:16:37.870> best<00:16:38.079> foundation<00:16:38.259> for
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statistics is the best foundation for
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statistics is the best foundation for
getting<00:16:39.160> some<00:16:39.759> appreciation<00:16:40.269> of<00:16:40.689> how<00:16:40.749> to<00:16:40.899> go
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getting some appreciation of how to go
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getting some appreciation of how to go
about<00:16:41.110> doing<00:16:41.499> that