WEBVTT Kind: captions Language: en 00:00:06.459 --> 00:00:09.549 align:start position:0% the<00:00:07.459> market<00:00:07.790> for<00:00:07.939> hotels<00:00:08.360> and<00:00:08.540> hospitality<00:00:09.080> is 00:00:09.549 --> 00:00:09.559 align:start position:0% the market for hotels and hospitality is 00:00:09.559 --> 00:00:12.089 align:start position:0% the market for hotels and hospitality is a<00:00:09.620> very<00:00:10.010> fluid<00:00:10.250> one<00:00:10.580> I'm<00:00:10.790> very<00:00:11.269> competitive 00:00:12.089 --> 00:00:12.099 align:start position:0% a very fluid one I'm very competitive 00:00:12.099 --> 00:00:15.100 align:start position:0% a very fluid one I'm very competitive offering<00:00:13.099> consumers<00:00:13.400> a<00:00:13.610> wide<00:00:13.940> choice<00:00:14.360> right 00:00:15.100 --> 00:00:15.110 align:start position:0% offering consumers a wide choice right 00:00:15.110 --> 00:00:18.280 align:start position:0% offering consumers a wide choice right from<00:00:15.349> speciality<00:00:16.160> historic<00:00:16.640> Inns<00:00:17.290> luxury 00:00:18.280 --> 00:00:18.290 align:start position:0% from speciality historic Inns luxury 00:00:18.290 --> 00:00:22.560 align:start position:0% from speciality historic Inns luxury hotels<00:00:18.820> down<00:00:19.820> to<00:00:20.029> more<00:00:20.180> modest<00:00:20.570> accommodation 00:00:22.560 --> 00:00:22.570 align:start position:0% hotels down to more modest accommodation 00:00:22.570 --> 00:00:25.569 align:start position:0% hotels down to more modest accommodation the<00:00:23.570> market<00:00:23.899> is<00:00:23.989> competitive<00:00:24.349> BAPS<00:00:25.070> for<00:00:25.369> two 00:00:25.569 --> 00:00:25.579 align:start position:0% the market is competitive BAPS for two 00:00:25.579 --> 00:00:26.609 align:start position:0% the market is competitive BAPS for two main<00:00:25.790> reasons 00:00:26.609 --> 00:00:26.619 align:start position:0% main reasons 00:00:26.619 --> 00:00:29.080 align:start position:0% main reasons first<00:00:27.619> consumers<00:00:28.130> have<00:00:28.279> access<00:00:28.700> to<00:00:28.880> good 00:00:29.080 --> 00:00:29.090 align:start position:0% first consumers have access to good 00:00:29.090 --> 00:00:31.839 align:start position:0% first consumers have access to good information<00:00:29.329> on<00:00:29.960> prices<00:00:30.770> services<00:00:31.610> and 00:00:31.839 --> 00:00:31.849 align:start position:0% information on prices services and 00:00:31.849 --> 00:00:33.910 align:start position:0% information on prices services and quality<00:00:32.090> and<00:00:32.509> second<00:00:33.469> there<00:00:33.590> are<00:00:33.680> few 00:00:33.910 --> 00:00:33.920 align:start position:0% quality and second there are few 00:00:33.920 --> 00:00:36.040 align:start position:0% quality and second there are few barriers<00:00:34.250> to<00:00:34.489> entry<00:00:34.789> it's<00:00:35.359> relatively<00:00:35.899> easy 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competition well they can 00:00:46.579 --> 00:00:49.239 align:start position:0% given so much competition well they can compete<00:00:46.999> successfully<00:00:47.920> provided<00:00:48.920> they<00:00:49.039> make 00:00:49.239 --> 00:00:49.249 align:start position:0% compete successfully provided they make 00:00:49.249 --> 00:00:51.399 align:start position:0% compete successfully provided they make the<00:00:49.399> right<00:00:49.609> decisions<00:00:50.269> about<00:00:50.449> their<00:00:50.809> products 00:00:51.399 --> 00:00:51.409 align:start position:0% the right decisions about their products 00:00:51.409 --> 00:00:56.020 align:start position:0% the right decisions about their products their<00:00:51.829> investment<00:00:52.519> and<00:00:52.670> their<00:00:53.120> pricing<00:00:55.030> one 00:00:56.020 --> 00:00:56.030 align:start position:0% their investment and their pricing one 00:00:56.030 --> 00:00:57.369 align:start position:0% their investment and their pricing one of<00:00:56.120> the<00:00:56.210> ways<00:00:56.359> in<00:00:56.539> which<00:00:56.569> businesses<00:00:57.170> make 00:00:57.369 --> 00:00:57.379 align:start position:0% of the ways in which businesses make 00:00:57.379 --> 00:00:59.709 align:start position:0% of the ways in which businesses make good<00:00:57.649> decisions<00:00:58.100> is<00:00:58.280> by<00:00:58.940> using<00:00:59.269> the<00:00:59.539> knowledge 00:00:59.709 --> 00:00:59.719 align:start position:0% good decisions is by using the knowledge 00:00:59.719 --> 00:01:01.479 align:start position:0% good decisions is by using the knowledge that<00:01:00.109> they've<00:01:00.260> gained<00:01:00.530> from<00:01:00.739> their<00:01:00.949> customers 00:01:01.479 --> 00:01:01.489 align:start position:0% that they've gained from their customers 00:01:01.489 --> 00:01:04.810 align:start position:0% that they've gained from their customers and<00:01:01.989> using<00:01:02.989> it<00:01:03.109> often<00:01:03.289> with<00:01:04.100> hypothesis 00:01:04.810 --> 00:01:04.820 align:start position:0% and using it often with hypothesis 00:01:04.820 --> 00:01:08.950 align:start position:0% and using it often with hypothesis testing<00:01:05.269> a<00:01:06.640> hotel<00:01:07.640> may<00:01:07.850> have<00:01:08.030> a<00:01:08.060> hunch<00:01:08.360> a<00:01:08.630> gut 00:01:08.950 --> 00:01:08.960 align:start position:0% testing a hotel may have a hunch a gut 00:01:08.960 --> 00:01:10.810 align:start position:0% testing a hotel may have a hunch a gut feeling<00:01:09.260> that<00:01:09.800> an<00:01:09.950> investment<00:01:10.550> in<00:01:10.670> new 00:01:10.810 --> 00:01:10.820 align:start position:0% feeling that an investment in new 00:01:10.820 --> 00:01:13.000 align:start position:0% feeling that an investment in new facilities<00:01:10.970> will<00:01:11.600> enhance<00:01:12.230> revenue<00:01:12.830> and 00:01:13.000 --> 00:01:13.010 align:start position:0% facilities will enhance revenue and 00:01:13.010 --> 00:01:16.240 align:start position:0% facilities will enhance revenue and profit<00:01:13.480> but<00:01:14.480> are<00:01:14.660> they<00:01:14.840> right<00:01:15.140> but<00:01:15.950> I've<00:01:16.010> seen 00:01:16.240 --> 00:01:16.250 align:start position:0% profit but are they right but I've seen 00:01:16.250 --> 00:01:19.960 align:start position:0% profit but are they right but I've seen so<00:01:16.580> many<00:01:16.760> people<00:01:17.380> have<00:01:18.380> great<00:01:18.530> ideas<00:01:18.800> but<00:01:19.460> then 00:01:19.960 --> 00:01:19.970 align:start position:0% so many people have great ideas but then 00:01:19.970 --> 00:01:21.940 align:start position:0% so many people have great ideas but then they<00:01:20.150> need<00:01:20.330> maybe<00:01:20.930> some<00:01:21.050> evidence<00:01:21.590> to<00:01:21.920> justify 00:01:21.940 --> 00:01:21.950 align:start position:0% they need maybe some evidence to justify 00:01:21.950 --> 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to persuade someone else<00:01:28.550> maybe<00:01:29.030> they<00:01:29.240> need<00:01:29.360> to<00:01:29.390> quantify<00:01:30.010> so<00:01:31.010> for 00:01:31.270 --> 00:01:31.280 align:start position:0% else maybe they need to quantify so for 00:01:31.280 --> 00:01:34.210 align:start position:0% else maybe they need to quantify so for example<00:01:31.880> we<00:01:32.260> deal<00:01:33.260> with<00:01:33.290> clients<00:01:33.890> every<00:01:34.190> day 00:01:34.210 --> 00:01:34.220 align:start position:0% example we deal with clients every day 00:01:34.220 --> 00:01:36.040 align:start position:0% example we deal with clients every day who<00:01:34.640> wants<00:01:34.880> to<00:01:34.940> improve<00:01:35.330> their<00:01:35.390> customers 00:01:36.040 --> 00:01:36.050 align:start position:0% who wants to improve their customers 00:01:36.050 --> 00:01:38.170 align:start position:0% who wants to improve their customers experiences<00:01:36.800> in<00:01:37.070> their<00:01:37.250> hotel<00:01:37.670> or<00:01:37.910> in<00:01:37.940> their 00:01:38.170 --> 00:01:38.180 align:start position:0% experiences in their hotel or in their 00:01:38.180 --> 00:01:40.480 align:start position:0% experiences in their hotel or in their car<00:01:38.360> dealership<00:01:38.930> and<00:01:39.200> it<00:01:39.980> makes<00:01:40.160> sense<00:01:40.340> to 00:01:40.480 --> 00:01:40.490 align:start position:0% car dealership and it makes sense to 00:01:40.490 --> 00:01:42.190 align:start position:0% car dealership and it makes sense to improve<00:01:40.880> those<00:01:41.120> customer<00:01:41.570> experiences 00:01:42.190 --> 00:01:42.200 align:start position:0% improve those customer experiences 00:01:42.200 --> 00:01:43.930 align:start position:0% improve those customer experiences because<00:01:42.560> you're<00:01:42.770> expecting<00:01:43.310> the<00:01:43.430> client<00:01:43.790> to 00:01:43.930 --> 00:01:43.940 align:start position:0% because you're expecting the client to 00:01:43.940 --> 00:01:46.210 align:start position:0% because you're expecting the client to that<00:01:44.240> the<00:01:44.360> customer<00:01:44.780> to<00:01:44.990> be<00:01:45.110> more<00:01:45.290> loyal<00:01:45.560> to 00:01:46.210 --> 00:01:46.220 align:start position:0% that the customer to be more loyal to 00:01:46.220 --> 00:01:48.220 align:start position:0% that the customer to be more loyal to recommend<00:01:46.670> you<00:01:46.790> more<00:01:47.000> and<00:01:47.210> as<00:01:47.720> a<00:01:47.780> consequence 00:01:48.220 --> 00:01:48.230 align:start position:0% recommend you more and as a consequence 00:01:48.230 --> 00:01:50.290 align:start position:0% recommend you more and as a consequence you'll<00:01:48.410> grow<00:01:48.530> your<00:01:48.710> business<00:01:49.070> it<00:01:50.060> makes 00:01:50.290 --> 00:01:50.300 align:start position:0% you'll grow your business it makes 00:01:50.300 --> 00:01:52.030 align:start position:0% you'll grow your business it makes intuitive<00:01:50.630> sense<00:01:50.840> that<00:01:51.380> if<00:01:51.500> we<00:01:51.650> can<00:01:51.800> improve 00:01:52.030 --> 00:01:52.040 align:start position:0% intuitive sense that if we can improve 00:01:52.040 --> 00:01:54.040 align:start position:0% intuitive sense that if we can improve customer<00:01:52.580> experiences<00:01:53.210> we're<00:01:53.840> going<00:01:53.990> to 00:01:54.040 --> 00:01:54.050 align:start position:0% customer experiences we're going to 00:01:54.050 --> 00:01:56.650 align:start position:0% customer experiences we're going to improve<00:01:54.410> profitability<00:01:55.150> that<00:01:56.150> makes<00:01:56.390> sense 00:01:56.650 --> 00:01:56.660 align:start position:0% improve profitability that makes sense 00:01:56.660 --> 00:01:59.410 align:start position:0% improve profitability that makes sense everyone<00:01:57.140> feels<00:01:57.410> that<00:01:57.530> to<00:01:57.800> be<00:01:57.890> true<00:01:58.160> if<00:01:59.150> you're 00:01:59.410 --> 00:01:59.420 align:start position:0% everyone feels that to be true if you're 00:01:59.420 --> 00:02:00.670 align:start position:0% everyone feels that to be true if you're going<00:01:59.570> to<00:01:59.720> make<00:01:59.900> an<00:02:00.050> investment<00:02:00.530> strategy 00:02:00.670 --> 00:02:00.680 align:start position:0% going to make an investment strategy 00:02:00.680 --> 00:02:03.250 align:start position:0% going to make an investment strategy based<00:02:01.190> on<00:02:01.430> that<00:02:01.610> it<00:02:02.450> makes<00:02:02.750> sense<00:02:02.960> to<00:02:03.110> be<00:02:03.200> able 00:02:03.250 --> 00:02:03.260 align:start position:0% based on that it makes sense to be able 00:02:03.260 --> 00:02:05.610 align:start position:0% based on that it makes sense to be able to<00:02:03.470> prove<00:02:03.680> it<00:02:03.860> in<00:02:04.040> a<00:02:04.130> more<00:02:04.280> quantitative<00:02:04.700> way 00:02:05.610 --> 00:02:05.620 align:start position:0% to prove it in a more quantitative way 00:02:05.620 --> 00:02:08.199 align:start position:0% to prove it in a more quantitative way you<00:02:06.620> find<00:02:06.830> Best<00:02:07.100> Western<00:02:07.490> hotels<00:02:07.940> all<00:02:08.179> over 00:02:08.199 --> 00:02:08.209 align:start position:0% you find Best Western hotels all over 00:02:08.209 --> 00:02:11.530 align:start position:0% you find Best Western hotels all over the<00:02:08.539> world<00:02:09.249> the<00:02:10.249> hotels<00:02:10.609> are<00:02:10.789> independently 00:02:11.530 --> 00:02:11.540 align:start position:0% the world the hotels are independently 00:02:11.540 --> 00:02:16.180 align:start position:0% the world the hotels are independently owned<00:02:11.719> best<00:02:12.230> Western<00:02:12.709> is<00:02:13.040> a<00:02:13.099> franchise 00:02:16.180 --> 00:02:16.190 align:start position:0% 00:02:16.190 --> 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bulk<00:02:26.700> of<00:02:26.850> our<00:02:27.030> customers<00:02:27.540> are 00:02:27.710 --> 00:02:27.720 align:start position:0% hotels a bulk of our customers are 00:02:27.720 --> 00:02:30.470 align:start position:0% hotels a bulk of our customers are repeat<00:02:27.960> guests<00:02:28.740> and<00:02:29.580> that<00:02:29.730> has<00:02:29.910> everything<00:02:30.090> to 00:02:30.470 --> 00:02:30.480 align:start position:0% repeat guests and that has everything to 00:02:30.480 --> 00:02:33.230 align:start position:0% repeat guests and that has everything to do<00:02:30.570> with<00:02:30.600> customer<00:02:31.080> service<00:02:31.700> they've<00:02:32.700> got<00:02:32.910> a 00:02:33.230 --> 00:02:33.240 align:start position:0% do with customer service they've got a 00:02:33.240 --> 00:02:36.380 align:start position:0% do with customer service they've got a chain<00:02:33.630> of<00:02:33.990> a<00:02:34.590> couple<00:02:35.340> of<00:02:35.370> hundred<00:02:35.520> hotels<00:02:36.150> in 00:02:36.380 --> 00:02:36.390 align:start position:0% chain of a couple of hundred hotels in 00:02:36.390 --> 00:02:38.750 align:start position:0% chain of a couple of hundred hotels in the<00:02:36.510> UK<00:02:36.900> they<00:02:37.380> have<00:02:37.410> a<00:02:37.560> thousand<00:02:38.070> or<00:02:38.220> so<00:02:38.250> in<00:02:38.610> the 00:02:38.750 --> 00:02:38.760 align:start position:0% the UK they have a thousand or so in the 00:02:38.760 --> 00:02:41.210 align:start position:0% the UK they have a thousand or so in the US<00:02:39.180> they've<00:02:39.900> got<00:02:40.080> hotels<00:02:40.500> all<00:02:40.800> around<00:02:40.830> the 00:02:41.210 --> 00:02:41.220 align:start position:0% US they've got hotels all around the 00:02:41.220 --> 00:02:44.840 align:start position:0% US they've got hotels all around the globe<00:02:42.380> if<00:02:43.380> you're<00:02:43.680> going<00:02:43.920> to<00:02:44.130> upgrade<00:02:44.340> your 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position:0% facilities themselves where would you put<00:02:52.740> your<00:02:52.800> investments<00:02:53.630> in<00:02:54.630> order<00:02:54.900> to<00:02:55.020> improve 00:02:55.310 --> 00:02:55.320 align:start position:0% put your investments in order to improve 00:02:55.320 --> 00:02:57.290 align:start position:0% put your investments in order to improve their<00:02:55.560> competitiveness<00:02:56.160> they<00:02:56.880> commissioned 00:02:57.290 --> 00:02:57.300 align:start position:0% their competitiveness they commissioned 00:02:57.300 --> 00:02:59.600 align:start position:0% their competitiveness they commissioned research<00:02:57.420> from<00:02:57.930> merits<00:02:58.320> to<00:02:58.800> determine<00:02:59.340> what 00:02:59.600 --> 00:02:59.610 align:start position:0% research from merits to determine what 00:02:59.610 --> 00:03:01.400 align:start position:0% research from merits to determine what areas<00:03:00.060> of<00:03:00.240> investment<00:03:00.720> would<00:03:01.080> yield<00:03:01.290> the 00:03:01.400 --> 00:03:01.410 align:start position:0% areas of investment would yield the 00:03:01.410 --> 00:03:04.910 align:start position:0% areas of investment would yield the greatest<00:03:01.550> competitive<00:03:02.550> improvement<00:03:03.920> merits 00:03:04.910 --> 00:03:04.920 align:start position:0% greatest competitive improvement merits 00:03:04.920 --> 00:03:06.710 align:start position:0% greatest competitive improvement merits is<00:03:05.070> a<00:03:05.100> global<00:03:05.550> research<00:03:05.850> company<00:03:06.360> that<00:03:06.510> works 00:03:06.710 --> 00:03:06.720 align:start position:0% is a global research company that works 00:03:06.720 --> 00:03:09.380 align:start position:0% is a global research company that works with<00:03:06.990> clients<00:03:07.260> in<00:03:07.590> many<00:03:07.770> industries<00:03:08.390> clients 00:03:09.380 --> 00:03:09.390 align:start position:0% with clients in many industries clients 00:03:09.390 --> 00:03:11.390 align:start position:0% with clients in many industries clients often<00:03:09.630> come<00:03:09.840> to<00:03:09.870> merits<00:03:10.350> with<00:03:10.530> a<00:03:10.560> hypothesis 00:03:11.390 --> 00:03:11.400 align:start position:0% often come to merits with a hypothesis 00:03:11.400 --> 00:03:13.960 align:start position:0% often come to merits with a hypothesis something<00:03:12.240> which<00:03:12.390> they<00:03:12.570> believe<00:03:13.050> to<00:03:13.080> be<00:03:13.440> true 00:03:13.960 --> 00:03:13.970 align:start position:0% something which they believe to be true 00:03:13.970 --> 00:03:18.350 align:start position:0% something which they believe to be true we<00:03:14.970> want<00:03:15.240> you<00:03:15.390> to<00:03:15.540> talk<00:03:15.810> to<00:03:16.140> this<00:03:16.260> lot<00:03:16.820> and<00:03:17.820> find 00:03:18.350 --> 00:03:18.360 align:start position:0% we want you to talk to this lot and find 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to<00:03:25.680> prove<00:03:25.890> something<00:03:26.330> they<00:03:27.330> have<00:03:27.690> a 00:03:27.710 --> 00:03:27.720 align:start position:0% research to prove something they have a 00:03:27.720 --> 00:03:30.230 align:start position:0% research to prove something they have a gut<00:03:28.080> feel<00:03:28.380> about<00:03:29.070> a<00:03:29.130> relationship<00:03:29.910> and<00:03:30.150> they 00:03:30.230 --> 00:03:30.240 align:start position:0% gut feel about a relationship and they 00:03:30.240 --> 00:03:31.190 align:start position:0% gut feel about a relationship and they want<00:03:30.390> to<00:03:30.480> demonstrate<00:03:30.930> that<00:03:31.050> that's 00:03:31.190 --> 00:03:31.200 align:start position:0% want to demonstrate that that's 00:03:31.200 --> 00:03:34.100 align:start position:0% want to demonstrate that that's happening<00:03:31.700> they<00:03:32.700> are<00:03:33.030> validating<00:03:33.630> some 00:03:34.100 --> 00:03:34.110 align:start position:0% happening they are validating some 00:03:34.110 --> 00:03:37.220 align:start position:0% happening they are validating some assumptions<00:03:34.650> some<00:03:34.950> hypotheses<00:03:35.640> so<00:03:36.230> merits 00:03:37.220 --> 00:03:37.230 align:start position:0% assumptions some hypotheses so merits 00:03:37.230 --> 00:03:40.310 align:start position:0% assumptions some hypotheses so merits begins<00:03:37.590> with<00:03:37.800> a<00:03:37.830> client's<00:03:38.310> hypothesis<00:03:39.000> and<00:03:39.810> an 00:03:40.310 --> 00:03:40.320 align:start position:0% begins with a client's hypothesis and an 00:03:40.320 --> 00:03:43.430 align:start position:0% begins with a client's hypothesis and an alternative<00:03:40.920> hypothesis<00:03:41.960> for<00:03:42.960> instance<00:03:43.290> the 00:03:43.430 --> 00:03:43.440 align:start position:0% alternative hypothesis for instance the 00:03:43.440 --> 00:03:45.200 align:start position:0% alternative hypothesis for instance the client<00:03:43.800> may<00:03:43.890> believe<00:03:44.220> that<00:03:44.430> investing 00:03:45.200 --> 00:03:45.210 align:start position:0% client may believe that investing 00:03:45.210 --> 00:03:47.420 align:start position:0% client may believe that investing enhancements<00:03:46.020> to<00:03:46.200> the<00:03:46.320> room<00:03:46.590> linens 00:03:47.420 --> 00:03:47.430 align:start position:0% enhancements to the room linens 00:03:47.430 --> 00:03:50.660 align:start position:0% enhancements to the room linens flat-screen<00:03:48.300> TVs<00:03:48.920> bathroom<00:03:49.920> fixtures<00:03:50.490> or 00:03:50.660 --> 00:03:50.670 align:start position:0% flat-screen TVs bathroom fixtures or 00:03:50.670 --> 00:03:52.430 align:start position:0% flat-screen TVs bathroom fixtures or facilities<00:03:51.210> will<00:03:51.780> enhance<00:03:52.140> the 00:03:52.430 --> 00:03:52.440 align:start position:0% facilities will enhance the 00:03:52.440 --> 00:03:55.430 align:start position:0% facilities will enhance the competitiveness<00:03:52.620> of<00:03:53.310> the<00:03:53.370> hotel<00:03:54.020> but<00:03:55.020> will<00:03:55.320> it 00:03:55.430 --> 00:03:55.440 align:start position:0% competitiveness of the hotel but will it 00:03:55.440 --> 00:03:57.620 align:start position:0% competitiveness of the hotel but will it result<00:03:55.650> in<00:03:55.980> increased<00:03:56.490> revenues<00:03:56.970> and<00:03:57.180> profits 00:03:57.620 --> 00:03:57.630 align:start position:0% result in increased revenues and profits 00:03:57.630 --> 00:04:00.650 align:start position:0% result in increased revenues and profits yes<00:03:58.530> we<00:03:58.710> understand<00:03:59.130> that<00:03:59.310> people<00:03:59.670> want<00:03:59.850> this 00:04:00.650 --> 00:04:00.660 align:start position:0% yes we understand that people want this 00:04:00.660 --> 00:04:01.970 align:start position:0% yes we understand that people want this and<00:04:00.720> they<00:04:01.050> want<00:04:01.230> that<00:04:01.440> and<00:04:01.590> they<00:04:01.680> want<00:04:01.860> this 00:04:01.970 --> 00:04:01.980 align:start position:0% and they want that and they want this 00:04:01.980 --> 00:04:03.400 align:start position:0% and they want that and they want this what<00:04:02.190> is<00:04:02.310> going<00:04:02.460> to<00:04:02.520> really<00:04:02.730> help<00:04:02.970> drive 00:04:03.400 --> 00:04:03.410 align:start position:0% what is going to really help drive 00:04:03.410 --> 00:04:06.620 align:start position:0% what is going to really help drive additional<00:04:04.410> hotel<00:04:04.800> sales<00:04:05.040> the<00:04:06.030> hypothesis 00:04:06.620 --> 00:04:06.630 align:start position:0% additional hotel sales the hypothesis 00:04:06.630 --> 00:04:08.720 align:start position:0% additional hotel sales the hypothesis would<00:04:06.780> be<00:04:06.840> that<00:04:07.500> such<00:04:07.710> enhancements<00:04:08.430> will<00:04:08.550> do 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experience but insufficiently to enhance revenues<00:04:17.760> and<00:04:17.970> profits<00:04:18.890> when<00:04:19.890> we<00:04:20.010> have<00:04:20.190> our 00:04:20.330 --> 00:04:20.340 align:start position:0% revenues and profits when we have our 00:04:20.340 --> 00:04:23.510 align:start position:0% revenues and profits when we have our hypothesis<00:04:21.030> the<00:04:21.930> one<00:04:22.109> we<00:04:22.290> think<00:04:22.590> is<00:04:22.800> correct 00:04:23.510 --> 00:04:23.520 align:start position:0% hypothesis the one we think is correct 00:04:23.520 --> 00:04:24.040 align:start position:0% hypothesis the one we think is correct the 00:04:24.040 --> 00:04:24.050 align:start position:0% the 00:04:24.050 --> 00:04:27.010 align:start position:0% the now<00:04:24.349> hypothesis<00:04:25.280> as<00:04:25.490> it's<00:04:25.729> called<00:04:25.940> and<00:04:26.210> our 00:04:27.010 --> 00:04:27.020 align:start position:0% now hypothesis as it's called and our 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in<00:04:36.590> the<00:04:36.740> US 00:04:37.059 --> 00:04:37.069 align:start position:0% the most notorious criminals in the US 00:04:37.069 --> 00:04:41.409 align:start position:0% the most notorious criminals in the US until<00:04:37.909> the<00:04:38.030> 1960s<00:04:39.610> that's<00:04:40.610> a<00:04:40.729> principle<00:04:41.000> of 00:04:41.409 --> 00:04:41.419 align:start position:0% until the 1960s that's a principle of 00:04:41.419 --> 00:04:44.589 align:start position:0% until the 1960s that's a principle of justice<00:04:41.919> that<00:04:42.919> if<00:04:43.039> someone<00:04:43.460> is<00:04:43.639> on<00:04:43.849> trial 00:04:44.589 --> 00:04:44.599 align:start position:0% justice that if someone is on trial 00:04:44.599 --> 00:04:47.439 align:start position:0% justice that if someone is on trial they're<00:04:45.349> presumed<00:04:45.919> to<00:04:46.069> be<00:04:46.280> innocent<00:04:46.699> until 00:04:47.439 --> 00:04:47.449 align:start position:0% they're presumed to be innocent until 00:04:47.449 --> 00:04:51.189 align:start position:0% they're presumed to be innocent until they're<00:04:48.289> proved<00:04:48.530> guilty<00:04:49.900> so<00:04:50.900> we<00:04:51.020> have<00:04:51.169> a 00:04:51.189 --> 00:04:51.199 align:start position:0% they're proved guilty so we have a 00:04:51.199 --> 00:04:53.800 align:start position:0% they're proved guilty so we have a hypothesis<00:04:51.889> that<00:04:52.250> says<00:04:52.550> this<00:04:53.419> man<00:04:53.629> is 00:04:53.800 --> 00:04:53.810 align:start position:0% hypothesis that says this man is 00:04:53.810 --> 00:04:57.040 align:start position:0% hypothesis that says this man is innocent<00:04:54.819> unless<00:04:55.819> there's<00:04:56.449> so<00:04:56.659> much<00:04:56.810> evidence 00:04:57.040 --> 00:04:57.050 align:start position:0% innocent unless there's so much evidence 00:04:57.050 --> 00:05:00.580 align:start position:0% innocent unless there's so much evidence against<00:04:57.800> him<00:04:57.979> that<00:04:58.580> we<00:04:58.759> change<00:04:59.629> our<00:05:00.050> view<00:05:00.349> and 00:05:00.580 --> 00:05:00.590 align:start position:0% against him that we change our view and 00:05:00.590 --> 00:05:04.809 align:start position:0% against him that we change our view and say<00:05:01.030> after<00:05:02.030> all<00:05:02.150> he's<00:05:02.360> guilty<00:05:03.550> now<00:05:04.550> this<00:05:04.699> is 00:05:04.809 --> 00:05:04.819 align:start position:0% say after all he's guilty now this is 00:05:04.819 --> 00:05:06.790 align:start position:0% say after all he's guilty now this is the<00:05:04.909> principle<00:05:05.449> that<00:05:05.539> we<00:05:05.690> use<00:05:05.719> for<00:05:06.199> hypothesis 00:05:06.790 --> 00:05:06.800 align:start position:0% the principle that we use for hypothesis 00:05:06.800 --> 00:05:11.350 align:start position:0% the principle that we use for hypothesis testing<00:05:06.969> we<00:05:07.969> set<00:05:08.270> up<00:05:08.300> a<00:05:08.719> hypothesis<00:05:09.590> and<00:05:10.360> we 00:05:11.350 --> 00:05:11.360 align:start position:0% testing we set up a hypothesis and we 00:05:11.360 --> 00:05:13.869 align:start position:0% testing we set up a hypothesis and we accept<00:05:11.930> that<00:05:12.020> hypothesis<00:05:12.889> until<00:05:13.759> the 00:05:13.869 --> 00:05:13.879 align:start position:0% accept that hypothesis until the 00:05:13.879 --> 00:05:15.909 align:start position:0% accept that hypothesis until the evidence<00:05:14.120> against<00:05:15.050> it<00:05:15.169> becomes<00:05:15.620> so 00:05:15.909 --> 00:05:15.919 align:start position:0% evidence against it becomes so 00:05:15.919 --> 00:05:19.080 align:start position:0% evidence against it becomes so overwhelming<00:05:16.069> that<00:05:16.819> we<00:05:17.300> have<00:05:17.479> to<00:05:17.629> reject<00:05:18.020> it 00:05:19.080 --> 00:05:19.090 align:start position:0% overwhelming that we have to reject it 00:05:19.090 --> 00:05:21.580 align:start position:0% overwhelming that we have to reject it and<00:05:20.090> we're<00:05:20.240> trying<00:05:20.360> to<00:05:20.569> avoid<00:05:20.840> two<00:05:21.110> problems 00:05:21.580 --> 00:05:21.590 align:start position:0% and we're trying to avoid two problems 00:05:21.590 --> 00:05:24.159 align:start position:0% and we're trying to avoid two problems we're<00:05:22.460> trying<00:05:22.699> to<00:05:22.789> avoid<00:05:23.060> a<00:05:23.120> situation<00:05:23.419> in 00:05:24.159 --> 00:05:24.169 align:start position:0% we're trying to avoid a situation in 00:05:24.169 --> 00:05:27.550 align:start position:0% we're trying to avoid a situation in which<00:05:24.259> we<00:05:24.680> reject<00:05:25.580> the<00:05:25.759> hypothesis<00:05:26.539> when<00:05:27.409> it's 00:05:27.550 --> 00:05:27.560 align:start position:0% which we reject the hypothesis when it's 00:05:27.560 --> 00:05:31.120 align:start position:0% which we reject the hypothesis when it's actually<00:05:27.740> correct<00:05:29.080> we<00:05:30.080> accept<00:05:30.919> the 00:05:31.120 --> 00:05:31.130 align:start position:0% actually correct we accept the 00:05:31.130 --> 00:05:33.600 align:start position:0% actually correct we accept the hypothesis<00:05:31.819> what<00:05:32.509> is<00:05:32.630> incorrect 00:05:33.600 --> 00:05:33.610 align:start position:0% hypothesis what is incorrect 00:05:33.610 --> 00:05:36.490 align:start position:0% hypothesis what is incorrect if<00:05:34.610> you<00:05:34.789> like<00:05:35.000> what<00:05:35.750> we're<00:05:35.870> trying<00:05:36.050> to<00:05:36.169> do<00:05:36.349> is 00:05:36.490 --> 00:05:36.500 align:start position:0% if you like what we're trying to do is 00:05:36.500 --> 00:05:39.370 align:start position:0% if you like what we're trying to do is to<00:05:36.620> avoid<00:05:36.860> a<00:05:36.919> situation<00:05:37.190> in<00:05:37.909> which<00:05:37.969> the<00:05:38.930> guilty 00:05:39.370 --> 00:05:39.380 align:start position:0% to avoid a situation in which the guilty 00:05:39.380 --> 00:05:42.670 align:start position:0% to avoid a situation in which the guilty is<00:05:39.949> found<00:05:40.279> innocent<00:05:40.840> or<00:05:41.840> where<00:05:42.139> the<00:05:42.259> innocent 00:05:42.670 --> 00:05:42.680 align:start position:0% is found innocent or where the innocent 00:05:42.680 --> 00:05:44.700 align:start position:0% is found innocent or where the innocent is<00:05:43.219> found<00:05:43.520> guilty 00:05:44.700 --> 00:05:44.710 align:start position:0% is found guilty 00:05:44.710 --> 00:05:48.219 align:start position:0% is found guilty so<00:05:45.710> using<00:05:45.949> that<00:05:46.130> parallel<00:05:46.819> let's<00:05:47.599> have<00:05:47.840> a<00:05:47.870> look 00:05:48.219 --> 00:05:48.229 align:start position:0% so using that parallel let's have a look 00:05:48.229 --> 00:05:51.550 align:start position:0% so using that parallel let's have a look at<00:05:48.919> a<00:05:49.099> test<00:05:49.400> and<00:05:49.880> see<00:05:50.539> how<00:05:50.840> we<00:05:51.169> assemble 00:05:51.550 --> 00:05:51.560 align:start position:0% at a test and see how we assemble 00:05:51.560 --> 00:05:54.610 align:start position:0% at a test and see how we assemble evidence<00:05:52.279> to<00:05:52.969> accept<00:05:53.389> or<00:05:53.930> reject<00:05:54.199> the 00:05:54.610 --> 00:05:54.620 align:start position:0% evidence to accept or reject the 00:05:54.620 --> 00:05:58.480 align:start position:0% evidence to accept or reject the hypothesis<00:05:55.960> good<00:05:56.960> afternoon<00:05:57.620> my<00:05:58.250> name<00:05:58.279> is 00:05:58.480 --> 00:05:58.490 align:start position:0% hypothesis good afternoon my name is 00:05:58.490 --> 00:06:00.100 align:start position:0% hypothesis good afternoon my name is Richard<00:05:58.969> Maxted<00:05:59.419> I'm<00:05:59.539> calling<00:05:59.870> from<00:05:59.990> the 00:06:00.100 --> 00:06:00.110 align:start position:0% Richard Maxted I'm calling from the 00:06:00.110 --> 00:06:02.769 align:start position:0% Richard Maxted I'm calling from the merits<00:06:00.440> research<00:06:00.860> um<00:06:01.400> it's<00:06:02.389> part<00:06:02.599> of<00:06:02.690> an 00:06:02.769 --> 00:06:02.779 align:start position:0% merits research um it's part of an 00:06:02.779 --> 00:06:04.540 align:start position:0% merits research um it's part of an ongoing<00:06:02.900> customer<00:06:03.620> satisfaction<00:06:04.250> research 00:06:04.540 --> 00:06:04.550 align:start position:0% ongoing customer satisfaction research 00:06:04.550 --> 00:06:06.519 align:start position:0% ongoing customer satisfaction research we're<00:06:04.969> looking<00:06:05.210> to<00:06:05.300> speak<00:06:05.509> to<00:06:05.719> people<00:06:06.080> merits 00:06:06.519 --> 00:06:06.529 align:start position:0% we're looking to speak to people merits 00:06:06.529 --> 00:06:08.290 align:start position:0% we're looking to speak to people merits designed<00:06:06.919> a<00:06:07.039> research<00:06:07.370> project<00:06:07.699> for<00:06:08.090> Best 00:06:08.290 --> 00:06:08.300 align:start position:0% designed a research project for Best 00:06:08.300 --> 00:06:10.360 align:start position:0% designed a research project for Best Western<00:06:08.719> and<00:06:09.169> interviewed<00:06:09.590> customers<00:06:10.190> from 00:06:10.360 --> 00:06:10.370 align:start position:0% Western and interviewed customers from 00:06:10.370 --> 00:06:13.029 align:start position:0% Western and interviewed customers from Best<00:06:10.669> Western<00:06:10.759> and<00:06:11.360> other<00:06:11.629> hotel<00:06:12.110> chains<00:06:12.529> we 00:06:13.029 --> 00:06:13.039 align:start position:0% Best Western and other hotel chains we 00:06:13.039 --> 00:06:15.100 align:start position:0% Best Western and other hotel chains we can<00:06:13.219> use<00:06:13.400> our<00:06:13.580> analysis<00:06:14.120> our<00:06:14.360> statistics<00:06:14.930> our 00:06:15.100 --> 00:06:15.110 align:start position:0% can use our analysis our statistics our 00:06:15.110 --> 00:06:17.790 align:start position:0% can use our analysis our statistics our research<00:06:15.500> to<00:06:15.770> identify<00:06:15.830> what<00:06:16.610> guests<00:06:17.090> Valley 00:06:17.790 --> 00:06:17.800 align:start position:0% research to identify what guests Valley 00:06:17.800 --> 00:06:20.950 align:start position:0% research to identify what guests Valley and<00:06:18.800> we<00:06:19.190> can<00:06:19.460> convert<00:06:19.729> that<00:06:20.150> to<00:06:20.629> a<00:06:20.659> certain 00:06:20.950 --> 00:06:20.960 align:start position:0% and we can convert that to a certain 00:06:20.960 --> 00:06:22.719 align:start position:0% and we can convert that to a certain degree<00:06:21.080> into<00:06:21.409> a<00:06:21.440> monetary<00:06:21.860> value<00:06:21.889> how<00:06:22.580> much 00:06:22.719 --> 00:06:22.729 align:start position:0% degree into a monetary value how much 00:06:22.729 --> 00:06:24.790 align:start position:0% degree into a monetary value how much are<00:06:22.879> they<00:06:22.969> likely<00:06:23.419> to<00:06:23.449> pay<00:06:23.810> for<00:06:24.289> the<00:06:24.409> benefit 00:06:24.790 --> 00:06:24.800 align:start position:0% are they likely to pay for the benefit 00:06:24.800 --> 00:06:26.040 align:start position:0% are they likely to pay for the benefit of<00:06:24.830> having<00:06:25.009> a 00:06:26.040 --> 00:06:26.050 align:start position:0% of having a 00:06:26.050 --> 00:06:28.260 align:start position:0% of having a all<00:06:26.169> the<00:06:26.409> were<00:06:26.560> a<00:06:26.590> fitness<00:06:27.009> suite<00:06:27.250> we<00:06:27.940> can<00:06:28.120> look 00:06:28.260 --> 00:06:28.270 align:start position:0% all the were a fitness suite we can look 00:06:28.270 --> 00:06:30.330 align:start position:0% all the were a fitness suite we can look at<00:06:28.360> average<00:06:28.479> occupancy<00:06:29.020> rates<00:06:29.470> we<00:06:30.069> can<00:06:30.099> look 00:06:30.330 --> 00:06:30.340 align:start position:0% at average occupancy rates we can look 00:06:30.340 --> 00:06:31.830 align:start position:0% at average occupancy rates we can look at<00:06:30.430> the<00:06:30.550> average<00:06:30.639> tariff<00:06:31.180> that<00:06:31.509> people<00:06:31.750> are 00:06:31.830 --> 00:06:31.840 align:start position:0% at the average tariff that people are 00:06:31.840 --> 00:06:33.990 align:start position:0% at the average tariff that people are paying<00:06:32.050> for<00:06:32.139> a<00:06:32.650> room<00:06:32.889> to<00:06:33.520> find<00:06:33.729> out<00:06:33.879> the 00:06:33.990 --> 00:06:34.000 align:start position:0% paying for a room to find out the 00:06:34.000 --> 00:06:35.730 align:start position:0% paying for a room to find out the potential<00:06:34.300> profit<00:06:34.930> that<00:06:35.169> could<00:06:35.349> be<00:06:35.500> gained 00:06:35.730 --> 00:06:35.740 align:start position:0% potential profit that could be gained 00:06:35.740 --> 00:06:39.420 align:start position:0% potential profit that could be gained through<00:06:35.940> installing<00:06:36.940> a<00:06:37.169> fitness<00:06:38.169> suite<00:06:38.430> and 00:06:39.420 --> 00:06:39.430 align:start position:0% through installing a fitness suite and 00:06:39.430 --> 00:06:41.219 align:start position:0% through installing a fitness suite and then<00:06:39.610> we<00:06:39.699> can<00:06:39.849> talk<00:06:40.030> with<00:06:40.300> the<00:06:40.479> owners<00:06:41.050> of<00:06:41.199> that 00:06:41.219 --> 00:06:41.229 align:start position:0% then we can talk with the owners of that 00:06:41.229 --> 00:06:43.740 align:start position:0% then we can talk with the owners of that Hotel<00:06:41.770> how<00:06:42.190> much<00:06:42.340> will<00:06:42.490> it<00:06:42.520> cost<00:06:42.639> for<00:06:43.599> you<00:06:43.720> to 00:06:43.740 --> 00:06:43.750 align:start position:0% Hotel how much will it cost for you to 00:06:43.750 --> 00:06:46.080 align:start position:0% Hotel how much will it cost for you to put<00:06:44.050> that<00:06:44.080> fitness<00:06:44.560> suite<00:06:44.740> in<00:06:44.979> and<00:06:45.159> then<00:06:45.759> start 00:06:46.080 --> 00:06:46.090 align:start position:0% put that fitness suite in and then start 00:06:46.090 --> 00:06:48.059 align:start position:0% put that fitness suite in and then start doing<00:06:46.150> some<00:06:46.569> return<00:06:46.960> on<00:06:46.990> investment<00:06:47.590> analysis 00:06:48.059 --> 00:06:48.069 align:start position:0% doing some return on investment analysis 00:06:48.069 --> 00:06:49.559 align:start position:0% doing some return on investment analysis to<00:06:48.250> work<00:06:48.400> out<00:06:48.610> whether<00:06:48.759> it's<00:06:49.240> worthwhile 00:06:49.559 --> 00:06:49.569 align:start position:0% to work out whether it's worthwhile 00:06:49.569 --> 00:06:51.930 align:start position:0% to work out whether it's worthwhile what's<00:06:50.199> the<00:06:50.349> potential<00:06:50.680> return<00:06:51.069> if<00:06:51.520> we<00:06:51.639> put<00:06:51.819> in 00:06:51.930 --> 00:06:51.940 align:start position:0% what's the potential return if we put in 00:06:51.940 --> 00:06:54.180 align:start position:0% what's the potential return if we put in a<00:06:52.030> fitness<00:06:52.240> suite<00:06:52.599> compared<00:06:53.590> to<00:06:53.740> it<00:06:53.860> since<00:06:54.039> the 00:06:54.180 --> 00:06:54.190 align:start position:0% a fitness suite compared to it since the 00:06:54.190 --> 00:06:56.930 align:start position:0% a fitness suite compared to it since the investment<00:06:54.669> in<00:06:54.789> its<00:06:54.909> installation<00:06:55.539> cost 00:06:56.930 --> 00:06:56.940 align:start position:0% investment in its installation cost 00:06:56.940 --> 00:06:59.129 align:start position:0% investment in its installation cost their<00:06:57.940> study<00:06:58.180> revealed<00:06:58.629> the<00:06:58.780> subtle 00:06:59.129 --> 00:06:59.139 align:start position:0% their study revealed the subtle 00:06:59.139 --> 00:07:00.839 align:start position:0% their study revealed the subtle differences<00:06:59.590> between<00:06:59.729> improvements<00:07:00.729> that 00:07:00.839 --> 00:07:00.849 align:start position:0% differences between improvements that 00:07:00.849 --> 00:07:03.480 align:start position:0% differences between improvements that customer<00:07:01.360> wanted<00:07:01.810> but<00:07:02.409> didn't<00:07:02.770> significantly 00:07:03.480 --> 00:07:03.490 align:start position:0% customer wanted but didn't significantly 00:07:03.490 --> 00:07:05.969 align:start position:0% customer wanted but didn't significantly improve<00:07:03.969> competitiveness<00:07:04.389> and<00:07:05.259> those<00:07:05.800> that 00:07:05.969 --> 00:07:05.979 align:start position:0% improve competitiveness and those that 00:07:05.979 --> 00:07:09.180 align:start position:0% improve competitiveness and those that did<00:07:06.690> Princeton's<00:07:07.690> customers<00:07:08.500> cared<00:07:08.740> greatly 00:07:09.180 --> 00:07:09.190 align:start position:0% did Princeton's customers cared greatly 00:07:09.190 --> 00:07:10.619 align:start position:0% did Princeton's customers cared greatly about<00:07:09.400> what's<00:07:09.639> called<00:07:09.879> triple<00:07:10.389> sheeting 00:07:10.619 --> 00:07:10.629 align:start position:0% about what's called triple sheeting 00:07:10.629 --> 00:07:13.290 align:start position:0% about what's called triple sheeting where<00:07:11.560> beds<00:07:11.830> have<00:07:12.099> inner<00:07:12.340> and<00:07:12.669> outer<00:07:12.909> sheets 00:07:13.290 --> 00:07:13.300 align:start position:0% where beds have inner and outer sheets 00:07:13.300 --> 00:07:16.740 align:start position:0% where beds have inner and outer sheets that<00:07:13.840> are<00:07:13.900> laundered<00:07:14.379> between<00:07:14.740> guests<00:07:15.750> the 00:07:16.740 --> 00:07:16.750 align:start position:0% that are laundered between guests the 00:07:16.750 --> 00:07:19.469 align:start position:0% that are laundered between guests the perceived<00:07:17.169> value<00:07:17.440> added<00:07:18.009> was<00:07:18.669> twelve<00:07:19.030> dollars 00:07:19.469 --> 00:07:19.479 align:start position:0% perceived value added was twelve dollars 00:07:19.479 --> 00:07:22.409 align:start position:0% perceived value added was twelve dollars and<00:07:19.659> forty<00:07:20.080> seven<00:07:20.379> cents<00:07:20.620> per<00:07:20.889> night<00:07:21.419> large 00:07:22.409 --> 00:07:22.419 align:start position:0% and forty seven cents per night large 00:07:22.419 --> 00:07:25.559 align:start position:0% and forty seven cents per night large screen<00:07:22.900> TVs<00:07:23.500> had<00:07:24.400> a<00:07:24.430> perceived<00:07:24.879> value<00:07:25.180> of 00:07:25.559 --> 00:07:25.569 align:start position:0% screen TVs had a perceived value of 00:07:25.569 --> 00:07:28.740 align:start position:0% screen TVs had a perceived value of about<00:07:26.169> twenty<00:07:26.590> dollars<00:07:26.740> a<00:07:27.750> break-even 00:07:28.740 --> 00:07:28.750 align:start position:0% about twenty dollars a break-even 00:07:28.750 --> 00:07:31.050 align:start position:0% about twenty dollars a break-even analysis<00:07:29.560> showed<00:07:29.800> that<00:07:29.830> hotels<00:07:30.400> could<00:07:30.639> recoup 00:07:31.050 --> 00:07:31.060 align:start position:0% analysis showed that hotels could recoup 00:07:31.060 --> 00:07:33.749 align:start position:0% analysis showed that hotels could recoup an<00:07:31.210> investment<00:07:31.779> in<00:07:31.900> triple<00:07:32.259> sheeting<00:07:32.440> in<00:07:33.159> 11 00:07:33.749 --> 00:07:33.759 align:start position:0% an investment in triple sheeting in 11 00:07:33.759 --> 00:07:39.059 align:start position:0% an investment in triple sheeting in 11 days<00:07:34.000> and<00:07:34.840> large<00:07:35.680> flat-screen<00:07:36.279> TVs<00:07:37.120> in<00:07:38.069> 102 00:07:39.059 --> 00:07:39.069 align:start position:0% days and large flat-screen TVs in 102 00:07:39.069 --> 00:07:43.320 align:start position:0% days and large flat-screen TVs in 102 days<00:07:41.009> this<00:07:42.009> information<00:07:42.639> helped<00:07:42.969> hotel 00:07:43.320 --> 00:07:43.330 align:start position:0% days this information helped hotel 00:07:43.330 --> 00:07:46.950 align:start position:0% days this information helped hotel owners<00:07:43.690> to<00:07:44.169> make<00:07:44.319> investment<00:07:44.860> decisions<00:07:45.960> but 00:07:46.950 --> 00:07:46.960 align:start position:0% owners to make investment decisions but 00:07:46.960 --> 00:07:49.860 align:start position:0% owners to make investment decisions but hypothesis<00:07:47.590> testing<00:07:48.039> is<00:07:48.279> not<00:07:48.610> only<00:07:48.789> used<00:07:49.300> in<00:07:49.659> a 00:07:49.860 --> 00:07:49.870 align:start position:0% hypothesis testing is not only used in a 00:07:49.870 --> 00:07:52.950 align:start position:0% hypothesis testing is not only used in a business<00:07:50.409> context<00:07:51.389> for<00:07:52.389> instance<00:07:52.719> there<00:07:52.930> are 00:07:52.950 --> 00:07:52.960 align:start position:0% business context for instance there are 00:07:52.960 --> 00:07:54.480 align:start position:0% business context for instance there are published<00:07:53.409> figures<00:07:53.830> that<00:07:54.009> suggest<00:07:54.430> that 00:07:54.480 --> 00:07:54.490 align:start position:0% published figures that suggest that 00:07:54.490 --> 00:07:58.409 align:start position:0% published figures that suggest that student<00:07:55.060> debt<00:07:55.300> is<00:07:55.599> rising<00:07:56.139> sharply<00:07:57.419> education 00:07:58.409 --> 00:07:58.419 align:start position:0% student debt is rising sharply education 00:07:58.419 --> 00:08:00.390 align:start position:0% student debt is rising sharply education is<00:07:58.569> expensive<00:07:59.169> and<00:07:59.319> more<00:07:59.830> and<00:07:59.979> more<00:08:00.129> countries 00:08:00.390 --> 00:08:00.400 align:start position:0% is expensive and more and more countries 00:08:00.400 --> 00:08:02.189 align:start position:0% is expensive and more and more countries are<00:08:00.759> shifting<00:08:01.090> the<00:08:01.210> burden<00:08:01.389> of<00:08:01.659> paying<00:08:01.870> for 00:08:02.189 --> 00:08:02.199 align:start position:0% are shifting the burden of paying for 00:08:02.199 --> 00:08:04.260 align:start position:0% are shifting the burden of paying for higher<00:08:02.409> education<00:08:02.650> to<00:08:03.639> the<00:08:03.759> individual 00:08:04.260 --> 00:08:04.270 align:start position:0% higher education to the individual 00:08:04.270 --> 00:08:06.570 align:start position:0% higher education to the individual students<00:08:04.930> how<00:08:05.379> much<00:08:05.529> do<00:08:05.650> you<00:08:05.740> worry<00:08:06.099> about<00:08:06.250> the 00:08:06.570 --> 00:08:06.580 align:start position:0% students how much do you worry about the 00:08:06.580 --> 00:08:07.920 align:start position:0% students how much do you worry about the kind<00:08:06.969> of<00:08:07.090> debts<00:08:07.300> you're<00:08:07.509> building<00:08:07.840> up 00:08:07.920 --> 00:08:07.930 align:start position:0% kind of debts you're building up 00:08:07.930 --> 00:08:10.110 align:start position:0% kind of debts you're building up studying<00:08:08.409> here<00:08:08.650> I<00:08:08.949> do<00:08:09.159> worry<00:08:09.460> about<00:08:09.520> it<00:08:09.909> I 00:08:10.110 --> 00:08:10.120 align:start position:0% studying here I do worry about it I 00:08:10.120 --> 00:08:12.059 align:start position:0% studying here I do worry about it I think<00:08:10.449> it's<00:08:10.569> gonna<00:08:10.659> hit<00:08:10.870> home<00:08:11.080> more<00:08:11.319> when<00:08:12.009> I 00:08:12.059 --> 00:08:12.069 align:start position:0% think it's gonna hit home more when I 00:08:12.069 --> 00:08:13.890 align:start position:0% think it's gonna hit home more when I finish<00:08:12.340> uni<00:08:12.669> you<00:08:12.909> go<00:08:13.060> to<00:08:13.120> university 00:08:13.890 --> 00:08:13.900 align:start position:0% finish uni you go to university 00:08:13.900 --> 00:08:15.540 align:start position:0% finish uni you go to university you're<00:08:14.080> pretty<00:08:14.319> aware<00:08:14.650> of<00:08:14.889> how<00:08:15.069> much<00:08:15.279> debt 00:08:15.540 --> 00:08:15.550 align:start position:0% you're pretty aware of how much debt 00:08:15.550 --> 00:08:17.640 align:start position:0% you're pretty aware of how much debt you're<00:08:15.669> gonna<00:08:15.789> have<00:08:16.000> at<00:08:16.120> the<00:08:16.210> end<00:08:16.330> of<00:08:16.509> it<00:08:16.659> it's 00:08:17.640 --> 00:08:17.650 align:start position:0% you're gonna have at the end of it it's 00:08:17.650 --> 00:08:19.140 align:start position:0% you're gonna have at the end of it it's off<00:08:17.770> like<00:08:17.949> relying<00:08:18.250> on<00:08:18.370> my<00:08:18.490> student<00:08:18.819> loans<00:08:18.969> and 00:08:19.140 --> 00:08:19.150 align:start position:0% off like relying on my student loans and 00:08:19.150 --> 00:08:20.730 align:start position:0% off like relying on my student loans and maintenance<00:08:19.629> grants<00:08:19.870> they<00:08:20.110> keep<00:08:20.289> me<00:08:20.440> going 00:08:20.730 --> 00:08:20.740 align:start position:0% maintenance grants they keep me going 00:08:20.740 --> 00:08:23.790 align:start position:0% maintenance grants they keep me going through<00:08:21.190> for<00:08:21.310> three<00:08:21.490> years<00:08:21.729> really<00:08:21.940> and<00:08:22.800> now 00:08:23.790 --> 00:08:23.800 align:start position:0% through for three years really and now 00:08:23.800 --> 00:08:26.580 align:start position:0% through for three years really and now hopefully<00:08:24.039> and<00:08:24.969> get<00:08:25.240> out<00:08:25.690> of<00:08:25.779> it<00:08:25.900> I'll<00:08:26.050> start 00:08:26.580 --> 00:08:26.590 align:start position:0% hopefully and get out of it I'll start 00:08:26.590 --> 00:08:28.140 align:start position:0% hopefully and get out of it I'll start paying<00:08:26.770> it<00:08:26.889> back<00:08:27.009> but<00:08:27.400> yeah<00:08:27.819> it's<00:08:28.000> been<00:08:28.029> tough 00:08:28.140 --> 00:08:28.150 align:start position:0% paying it back but yeah it's been tough 00:08:28.150 --> 00:08:30.019 align:start position:0% paying it back but yeah it's been tough as<00:08:28.870> soon<00:08:29.050> as<00:08:29.139> you<00:08:29.199> leave<00:08:29.319> University 00:08:30.019 --> 00:08:30.029 align:start position:0% as soon as you leave University 00:08:30.029 --> 00:08:31.699 align:start position:0% as soon as you leave University the<00:08:30.689> place<00:08:30.899> with<00:08:31.079> letters<00:08:31.349> from<00:08:31.439> the<00:08:31.589> bank 00:08:31.699 --> 00:08:31.709 align:start position:0% the place with letters from the bank 00:08:31.709 --> 00:08:35.029 align:start position:0% the place with letters from the bank comes<00:08:32.009> in<00:08:32.129> India<00:08:32.389> okay<00:08:33.409> start<00:08:34.409> paying<00:08:34.589> back<00:08:34.769> so 00:08:35.029 --> 00:08:35.039 align:start position:0% comes in India okay start paying back so 00:08:35.039 --> 00:08:37.069 align:start position:0% comes in India okay start paying back so it's<00:08:35.219> Australia<00:08:36.000> life<00:08:36.120> so<00:08:36.389> yeah<00:08:36.569> well<00:08:36.839> I<00:08:36.870> worry 00:08:37.069 --> 00:08:37.079 align:start position:0% it's Australia life so yeah well I worry 00:08:37.079 --> 00:08:39.409 align:start position:0% it's Australia life so yeah well I worry letter<00:08:37.289> quite<00:08:37.409> a<00:08:37.469> bit<00:08:37.729> yeah<00:08:38.729> I<00:08:38.789> think<00:08:38.939> it's<00:08:39.329> a 00:08:39.409 --> 00:08:39.419 align:start position:0% letter quite a bit yeah I think it's a 00:08:39.419 --> 00:08:40.969 align:start position:0% letter quite a bit yeah I think it's a sort<00:08:39.629> of<00:08:39.689> debt<00:08:39.959> that<00:08:40.110> you're<00:08:40.409> gonna<00:08:40.589> be<00:08:40.740> paying 00:08:40.969 --> 00:08:40.979 align:start position:0% sort of debt that you're gonna be paying 00:08:40.979 --> 00:08:42.679 align:start position:0% sort of debt that you're gonna be paying off<00:08:41.250> for<00:08:41.399> the<00:08:41.459> next<00:08:41.610> 30<00:08:41.969> odd<00:08:42.209> years<00:08:42.240> of<00:08:42.599> your 00:08:42.679 --> 00:08:42.689 align:start position:0% off for the next 30 odd years of your 00:08:42.689 --> 00:08:45.079 align:start position:0% off for the next 30 odd years of your life<00:08:42.839> including<00:08:43.229> the<00:08:43.740> like<00:08:44.219> the<00:08:44.490> interest<00:08:44.910> and 00:08:45.079 --> 00:08:45.089 align:start position:0% life including the like the interest and 00:08:45.089 --> 00:08:47.600 align:start position:0% life including the like the interest and everything<00:08:45.800> some<00:08:46.800> people<00:08:47.069> believe<00:08:47.370> that 00:08:47.600 --> 00:08:47.610 align:start position:0% everything some people believe that 00:08:47.610 --> 00:08:49.910 align:start position:0% everything some people believe that higher<00:08:48.120> education<00:08:48.839> should<00:08:48.870> be<00:08:49.050> subsidized<00:08:49.680> by 00:08:49.910 --> 00:08:49.920 align:start position:0% higher education should be subsidized by 00:08:49.920 --> 00:08:52.340 align:start position:0% higher education should be subsidized by the<00:08:49.949> taxpayers<00:08:50.579> and<00:08:51.420> this<00:08:51.720> is<00:08:51.839> the<00:08:51.959> case<00:08:52.170> in 00:08:52.340 --> 00:08:52.350 align:start position:0% the taxpayers and this is the case in 00:08:52.350 --> 00:08:55.490 align:start position:0% the taxpayers and this is the case in many<00:08:52.529> European<00:08:53.160> countries<00:08:54.139> others<00:08:55.139> believe 00:08:55.490 --> 00:08:55.500 align:start position:0% many European countries others believe 00:08:55.500 --> 00:08:57.170 align:start position:0% many European countries others believe that<00:08:55.529> since<00:08:55.920> students<00:08:56.339> get<00:08:56.550> the<00:08:56.699> benefit<00:08:57.149> of 00:08:57.170 --> 00:08:57.180 align:start position:0% that since students get the benefit of 00:08:57.180 --> 00:08:59.240 align:start position:0% that since students get the benefit of enhanced<00:08:57.779> earnings<00:08:58.139> with<00:08:58.350> a<00:08:58.379> degree<00:08:58.769> they 00:08:59.240 --> 00:08:59.250 align:start position:0% enhanced earnings with a degree they 00:08:59.250 --> 00:09:02.509 align:start position:0% enhanced earnings with a degree they should<00:08:59.490> also<00:08:59.639> pay<00:08:59.939> the<00:09:00.120> costs<00:09:01.370> you're<00:09:02.370> the 00:09:02.509 --> 00:09:02.519 align:start position:0% should also pay the costs you're the 00:09:02.519 --> 00:09:03.980 align:start position:0% should also pay the costs you're the ones<00:09:02.699> that<00:09:02.819> are<00:09:03.000> gaining<00:09:03.240> out<00:09:03.480> of<00:09:03.629> it<00:09:03.750> in<00:09:03.839> terms 00:09:03.980 --> 00:09:03.990 align:start position:0% ones that are gaining out of it in terms 00:09:03.990 --> 00:09:06.050 align:start position:0% ones that are gaining out of it in terms of<00:09:04.199> a<00:09:04.319> higher<00:09:04.560> salary<00:09:04.980> do<00:09:05.430> you<00:09:05.490> not<00:09:05.670> think<00:09:05.850> that 00:09:06.050 --> 00:09:06.060 align:start position:0% of a higher salary do you not think that 00:09:06.060 --> 00:09:10.490 align:start position:0% of a higher salary do you not think that you're<00:09:06.300> the<00:09:06.449> ones<00:09:06.629> ought<00:09:06.870> to<00:09:06.959> pay<00:09:07.110> for<00:09:07.350> it<00:09:09.500> when 00:09:10.490 --> 00:09:10.500 align:start position:0% you're the ones ought to pay for it when 00:09:10.500 --> 00:09:14.809 align:start position:0% you're the ones ought to pay for it when you<00:09:10.589> put<00:09:10.740> it<00:09:10.829> that<00:09:10.920> way<00:09:12.439> yeah<00:09:13.439> I<00:09:13.670> don't<00:09:14.670> think 00:09:14.809 --> 00:09:14.819 align:start position:0% you put it that way yeah I don't think 00:09:14.819 --> 00:09:16.009 align:start position:0% you put it that way yeah I don't think there's<00:09:14.970> a<00:09:15.029> problem<00:09:15.300> about<00:09:15.389> student<00:09:15.959> debt 00:09:16.009 --> 00:09:16.019 align:start position:0% there's a problem about student debt 00:09:16.019 --> 00:09:19.550 align:start position:0% there's a problem about student debt generally<00:09:16.680> I<00:09:16.709> think<00:09:17.000> students<00:09:18.319> complain<00:09:19.319> too 00:09:19.550 --> 00:09:19.560 align:start position:0% generally I think students complain too 00:09:19.560 --> 00:09:22.040 align:start position:0% generally I think students complain too much<00:09:19.769> about<00:09:20.069> their<00:09:20.339> debt<00:09:20.610> on<00:09:21.360> the<00:09:21.600> average 00:09:22.040 --> 00:09:22.050 align:start position:0% much about their debt on the average 00:09:22.050 --> 00:09:24.199 align:start position:0% much about their debt on the average people<00:09:22.470> go<00:09:22.769> to<00:09:22.829> college<00:09:23.100> do<00:09:23.490> a<00:09:23.519> heck<00:09:23.850> of<00:09:23.879> a<00:09:24.060> lot 00:09:24.199 --> 00:09:24.209 align:start position:0% people go to college do a heck of a lot 00:09:24.209 --> 00:09:25.819 align:start position:0% people go to college do a heck of a lot better<00:09:24.509> than<00:09:24.629> people<00:09:24.870> don't<00:09:25.199> go<00:09:25.350> to<00:09:25.379> college 00:09:25.819 --> 00:09:25.829 align:start position:0% better than people don't go to college 00:09:25.829 --> 00:09:27.559 align:start position:0% better than people don't go to college in<00:09:25.949> every<00:09:26.250> country<00:09:26.459> that<00:09:26.850> we<00:09:26.970> have<00:09:27.120> any<00:09:27.300> data 00:09:27.559 --> 00:09:27.569 align:start position:0% in every country that we have any data 00:09:27.569 --> 00:09:31.280 align:start position:0% in every country that we have any data for<00:09:27.870> if<00:09:28.259> they're<00:09:28.470> going<00:09:28.620> to<00:09:28.709> do<00:09:28.860> that<00:09:29.069> well<00:09:30.290> why 00:09:31.280 --> 00:09:31.290 align:start position:0% for if they're going to do that well why 00:09:31.290 --> 00:09:33.650 align:start position:0% for if they're going to do that well why should<00:09:31.529> the<00:09:32.129> state<00:09:32.430> be<00:09:32.459> paying<00:09:33.089> for<00:09:33.389> a<00:09:33.449> why 00:09:33.650 --> 00:09:33.660 align:start position:0% should the state be paying for a why 00:09:33.660 --> 00:09:36.740 align:start position:0% should the state be paying for a why shouldn't<00:09:33.959> they<00:09:34.050> have<00:09:34.259> to<00:09:35.149> pay<00:09:36.149> for<00:09:36.480> it<00:09:36.600> take 00:09:36.740 --> 00:09:36.750 align:start position:0% shouldn't they have to pay for it take 00:09:36.750 --> 00:09:38.329 align:start position:0% shouldn't they have to pay for it take out<00:09:36.870> debt<00:09:37.230> the<00:09:37.379> way<00:09:37.500> they<00:09:37.680> do<00:09:37.740> when<00:09:38.009> they<00:09:38.129> buy<00:09:38.309> a 00:09:38.329 --> 00:09:38.339 align:start position:0% out debt the way they do when they buy a 00:09:38.339 --> 00:09:40.160 align:start position:0% out debt the way they do when they buy a house<00:09:38.610> and<00:09:39.059> then<00:09:39.180> pay<00:09:39.389> it<00:09:39.509> back<00:09:39.720> over<00:09:39.750> their 00:09:40.160 --> 00:09:40.170 align:start position:0% house and then pay it back over their 00:09:40.170 --> 00:09:42.769 align:start position:0% house and then pay it back over their higher<00:09:40.319> earnings<00:09:40.910> so<00:09:41.910> I<00:09:41.939> think<00:09:42.120> overall 00:09:42.769 --> 00:09:42.779 align:start position:0% higher earnings so I think overall 00:09:42.779 --> 00:09:46.579 align:start position:0% higher earnings so I think overall that's<00:09:43.110> fine<00:09:44.509> for<00:09:45.509> people<00:09:45.809> from<00:09:46.350> poorer 00:09:46.579 --> 00:09:46.589 align:start position:0% that's fine for people from poorer 00:09:46.589 --> 00:09:50.809 align:start position:0% that's fine for people from poorer families<00:09:47.089> it's<00:09:48.089> also<00:09:48.360> fine<00:09:49.199> as<00:09:49.709> long<00:09:50.339> as<00:09:50.610> we 00:09:50.809 --> 00:09:50.819 align:start position:0% families it's also fine as long as we 00:09:50.819 --> 00:09:54.470 align:start position:0% families it's also fine as long as we enable<00:09:51.269> them<00:09:51.449> to<00:09:52.040> borrow<00:09:53.040> enough<00:09:53.579> so<00:09:54.300> that 00:09:54.470 --> 00:09:54.480 align:start position:0% enable them to borrow enough so that 00:09:54.480 --> 00:09:56.259 align:start position:0% enable them to borrow enough so that they<00:09:54.629> can<00:09:54.899> finance<00:09:55.410> their<00:09:55.829> education 00:09:56.259 --> 00:09:56.269 align:start position:0% they can finance their education 00:09:56.269 --> 00:09:59.809 align:start position:0% they can finance their education reasonably<00:09:57.269> and<00:09:57.829> you<00:09:58.829> may<00:09:59.069> want<00:09:59.339> to<00:09:59.430> think<00:09:59.550> of 00:09:59.809 --> 00:09:59.819 align:start position:0% reasonably and you may want to think of 00:09:59.819 --> 00:10:02.420 align:start position:0% reasonably and you may want to think of you<00:09:59.939> know<00:10:00.059> more<00:10:01.100> sophisticated<00:10:02.100> financial 00:10:02.420 --> 00:10:02.430 align:start position:0% you know more sophisticated financial 00:10:02.430 --> 00:10:04.819 align:start position:0% you know more sophisticated financial instruments<00:10:03.389> so<00:10:03.480> you<00:10:03.540> pay<00:10:03.839> back<00:10:04.050> not<00:10:04.290> a<00:10:04.319> fixed 00:10:04.819 --> 00:10:04.829 align:start position:0% instruments so you pay back not a fixed 00:10:04.829 --> 00:10:06.980 align:start position:0% instruments so you pay back not a fixed amount<00:10:04.949> but<00:10:05.459> a<00:10:05.490> fraction<00:10:05.850> of<00:10:06.240> your<00:10:06.389> income<00:10:06.809> up 00:10:06.980 --> 00:10:06.990 align:start position:0% amount but a fraction of your income up 00:10:06.990 --> 00:10:08.990 align:start position:0% amount but a fraction of your income up to<00:10:07.019> a<00:10:07.139> certain<00:10:07.439> point<00:10:07.620> and<00:10:08.160> then<00:10:08.670> some 00:10:08.990 --> 00:10:09.000 align:start position:0% to a certain point and then some 00:10:09.000 --> 00:10:10.730 align:start position:0% to a certain point and then some countries<00:10:09.360> do<00:10:09.569> things<00:10:10.019> like<00:10:10.230> that<00:10:10.470> so<00:10:10.620> you<00:10:10.709> can 00:10:10.730 --> 00:10:10.740 align:start position:0% countries do things like that so you can 00:10:10.740 --> 00:10:13.429 align:start position:0% countries do things like that so you can make<00:10:10.860> it<00:10:11.129> more<00:10:11.279> sophisticated<00:10:12.110> but<00:10:13.110> that 00:10:13.429 --> 00:10:13.439 align:start position:0% make it more sophisticated but that 00:10:13.439 --> 00:10:15.980 align:start position:0% make it more sophisticated but that students<00:10:14.040> who<00:10:14.579> are<00:10:14.879> going<00:10:15.120> to<00:10:15.240> benefit<00:10:15.839> from 00:10:15.980 --> 00:10:15.990 align:start position:0% students who are going to benefit from 00:10:15.990 --> 00:10:18.230 align:start position:0% students who are going to benefit from their<00:10:16.199> education<00:10:16.980> should<00:10:17.579> have<00:10:17.759> to<00:10:17.970> pay<00:10:18.180> for 00:10:18.230 --> 00:10:18.240 align:start position:0% their education should have to pay for 00:10:18.240 --> 00:10:18.799 align:start position:0% their education should have to pay for it 00:10:18.799 --> 00:10:18.809 align:start position:0% it 00:10:18.809 --> 00:10:21.499 align:start position:0% it either<00:10:19.019> through<00:10:19.670> directly<00:10:20.670> out<00:10:20.819> of<00:10:20.850> with 00:10:21.499 --> 00:10:21.509 align:start position:0% either through directly out of with 00:10:21.509 --> 00:10:23.780 align:start position:0% either through directly out of with their<00:10:21.689> parental<00:10:22.470> their<00:10:22.769> own<00:10:22.920> money<00:10:23.189> or<00:10:23.309> all 00:10:23.780 --> 00:10:23.790 align:start position:0% their parental their own money or all 00:10:23.790 --> 00:10:25.460 align:start position:0% their parental their own money or all right<00:10:24.000> borrowing<00:10:24.600> I<00:10:24.839> think<00:10:25.050> is<00:10:25.139> absolutely 00:10:25.460 --> 00:10:25.470 align:start position:0% right borrowing I think is absolutely 00:10:25.470 --> 00:10:28.400 align:start position:0% right borrowing I think is absolutely the<00:10:25.769> right<00:10:25.920> way<00:10:26.100> for<00:10:26.370> higher<00:10:26.879> education<00:10:27.230> to<00:10:28.230> go 00:10:28.400 --> 00:10:28.410 align:start position:0% the right way for higher education to go 00:10:28.410 --> 00:10:31.429 align:start position:0% the right way for higher education to go and<00:10:28.769> to<00:10:28.889> me<00:10:29.069> it's<00:10:29.759> really<00:10:29.879> an<00:10:30.240> equitable<00:10:30.629> to 00:10:31.429 --> 00:10:31.439 align:start position:0% and to me it's really an equitable to 00:10:31.439 --> 00:10:34.790 align:start position:0% and to me it's really an equitable to have<00:10:31.529> the<00:10:31.680> state<00:10:32.120> pay<00:10:33.120> for<00:10:33.809> people<00:10:34.139> who<00:10:34.709> are 00:10:34.790 --> 00:10:34.800 align:start position:0% have the state pay for people who are 00:10:34.800 --> 00:10:36.019 align:start position:0% have the state pay for people who are going<00:10:34.920> to<00:10:35.069> be<00:10:35.189> among<00:10:35.430> the<00:10:35.490> higher<00:10:35.790> income 00:10:36.019 --> 00:10:36.029 align:start position:0% going to be among the higher income 00:10:36.029 --> 00:10:39.319 align:start position:0% going to be among the higher income numbers<00:10:36.899> of<00:10:37.079> society<00:10:37.709> I<00:10:37.920> mean<00:10:38.339> why<00:10:38.939> should<00:10:38.970> the 00:10:39.319 --> 00:10:39.329 align:start position:0% numbers of society I mean why should the 00:10:39.329 --> 00:10:41.449 align:start position:0% numbers of society I mean why should the lower<00:10:39.600> income<00:10:40.019> people<00:10:40.199> be<00:10:40.529> taxed<00:10:41.009> to<00:10:41.130> pay<00:10:41.279> for 00:10:41.449 --> 00:10:41.459 align:start position:0% lower income people be taxed to pay for 00:10:41.459 --> 00:10:41.970 align:start position:0% lower income people be taxed to pay for the<00:10:41.519> hiring 00:10:41.970 --> 00:10:41.980 align:start position:0% the hiring 00:10:41.980 --> 00:10:44.010 align:start position:0% the hiring people<00:10:42.250> I<00:10:42.280> know<00:10:42.490> I<00:10:42.520> couldn't<00:10:43.060> I<00:10:43.300> can't<00:10:43.690> see<00:10:43.870> the 00:10:44.010 --> 00:10:44.020 align:start position:0% people I know I couldn't I can't see the 00:10:44.020 --> 00:10:47.370 align:start position:0% people I know I couldn't I can't see the sense<00:10:44.260> of<00:10:44.440> doing<00:10:44.650> that<00:10:46.020> the<00:10:47.020> published 00:10:47.370 --> 00:10:47.380 align:start position:0% sense of doing that the published 00:10:47.380 --> 00:10:49.020 align:start position:0% sense of doing that the published figures<00:10:47.710> suggest<00:10:48.220> that<00:10:48.640> as<00:10:48.730> a<00:10:48.760> result 00:10:49.020 --> 00:10:49.030 align:start position:0% figures suggest that as a result 00:10:49.030 --> 00:10:51.090 align:start position:0% figures suggest that as a result students<00:10:49.750> have<00:10:49.870> graduated<00:10:50.020> with<00:10:50.650> increased 00:10:51.090 --> 00:10:51.100 align:start position:0% students have graduated with increased 00:10:51.100 --> 00:10:54.930 align:start position:0% students have graduated with increased dance<00:10:51.430> but<00:10:52.360> can<00:10:52.600> we<00:10:52.720> believe<00:10:53.050> the<00:10:53.230> figures<00:10:53.940> one 00:10:54.930 --> 00:10:54.940 align:start position:0% dance but can we believe the figures one 00:10:54.940 --> 00:10:56.640 align:start position:0% dance but can we believe the figures one way<00:10:55.060> we<00:10:55.210> could<00:10:55.390> check<00:10:55.660> the<00:10:55.870> accuracy<00:10:56.200> of<00:10:56.500> the 00:10:56.640 --> 00:10:56.650 align:start position:0% way we could check the accuracy of the 00:10:56.650 --> 00:10:58.590 align:start position:0% way we could check the accuracy of the figures<00:10:57.010> would<00:10:57.340> be<00:10:57.520> to<00:10:57.670> sample<00:10:58.180> a<00:10:58.270> group<00:10:58.450> of 00:10:58.590 --> 00:10:58.600 align:start position:0% figures would be to sample a group of 00:10:58.600 --> 00:11:01.800 align:start position:0% figures would be to sample a group of students<00:10:59.550> and<00:11:00.550> suppose<00:11:00.880> we<00:11:01.030> do<00:11:01.150> this<00:11:01.330> and<00:11:01.600> find 00:11:01.800 --> 00:11:01.810 align:start position:0% students and suppose we do this and find 00:11:01.810 --> 00:11:03.930 align:start position:0% students and suppose we do this and find that<00:11:02.020> our<00:11:02.140> sample<00:11:02.560> of<00:11:02.590> students<00:11:03.070> has<00:11:03.550> higher 00:11:03.930 --> 00:11:03.940 align:start position:0% that our sample of students has higher 00:11:03.940 --> 00:11:07.080 align:start position:0% that our sample of students has higher debt<00:11:04.360> than<00:11:04.630> the<00:11:04.720> published<00:11:05.140> figures<00:11:06.090> does 00:11:07.080 --> 00:11:07.090 align:start position:0% debt than the published figures does 00:11:07.090 --> 00:11:09.870 align:start position:0% debt than the published figures does this<00:11:07.210> mean<00:11:07.480> that<00:11:07.510> the<00:11:07.750> figures<00:11:08.050> are<00:11:08.200> wrong<00:11:08.880> we 00:11:09.870 --> 00:11:09.880 align:start position:0% this mean that the figures are wrong we 00:11:09.880 --> 00:11:11.720 align:start position:0% this mean that the figures are wrong we can<00:11:10.060> answer<00:11:10.240> this<00:11:10.540> question<00:11:11.050> using 00:11:11.720 --> 00:11:11.730 align:start position:0% can answer this question using 00:11:11.730 --> 00:11:15.360 align:start position:0% can answer this question using hypothesis<00:11:12.730> testing<00:11:13.710> here's<00:11:14.710> the<00:11:14.890> particular 00:11:15.360 --> 00:11:15.370 align:start position:0% hypothesis testing here's the particular 00:11:15.370 --> 00:11:16.890 align:start position:0% hypothesis testing here's the particular problem<00:11:15.760> that<00:11:15.790> we'll<00:11:16.090> solve<00:11:16.390> using 00:11:16.890 --> 00:11:16.900 align:start position:0% problem that we'll solve using 00:11:16.900 --> 00:11:20.550 align:start position:0% problem that we'll solve using hypothesis<00:11:17.740> testing<00:11:18.750> the<00:11:19.750> data<00:11:19.990> suggests 00:11:20.550 --> 00:11:20.560 align:start position:0% hypothesis testing the data suggests 00:11:20.560 --> 00:11:22.350 align:start position:0% hypothesis testing the data suggests that<00:11:20.710> student<00:11:21.130> debt<00:11:21.250> on<00:11:21.460> leaving<00:11:21.820> college<00:11:22.180> or 00:11:22.350 --> 00:11:22.360 align:start position:0% that student debt on leaving college or 00:11:22.360 --> 00:11:24.780 align:start position:0% that student debt on leaving college or university<00:11:23.020> averages<00:11:23.740> eighteen<00:11:24.340> thousand 00:11:24.780 --> 00:11:24.790 align:start position:0% university averages eighteen thousand 00:11:24.790 --> 00:11:28.020 align:start position:0% university averages eighteen thousand pounds<00:11:25.140> we<00:11:26.140> think<00:11:26.380> it<00:11:26.500> may<00:11:26.620> be<00:11:26.650> higher<00:11:27.010> so<00:11:27.310> we 00:11:28.020 --> 00:11:28.030 align:start position:0% pounds we think it may be higher so we 00:11:28.030 --> 00:11:29.430 align:start position:0% pounds we think it may be higher so we interviewed<00:11:28.300> a<00:11:28.510> hundred<00:11:28.840> students<00:11:29.260> on 00:11:29.430 --> 00:11:29.440 align:start position:0% interviewed a hundred students on 00:11:29.440 --> 00:11:31.950 align:start position:0% interviewed a hundred students on leaving<00:11:29.830> University<00:11:30.550> and<00:11:31.240> found<00:11:31.600> that<00:11:31.810> the 00:11:31.950 --> 00:11:31.960 align:start position:0% leaving University and found that the 00:11:31.960 --> 00:11:34.560 align:start position:0% leaving University and found that the mean<00:11:32.260> average<00:11:32.530> of<00:11:32.890> that<00:11:33.010> sample<00:11:33.730> was<00:11:33.940> nineteen 00:11:34.560 --> 00:11:34.570 align:start position:0% mean average of that sample was nineteen 00:11:34.570 --> 00:11:37.020 align:start position:0% mean average of that sample was nineteen thousand<00:11:35.080> five<00:11:35.260> hundred<00:11:35.610> now<00:11:36.610> of<00:11:36.670> course<00:11:36.820> the 00:11:37.020 --> 00:11:37.030 align:start position:0% thousand five hundred now of course the 00:11:37.030 --> 00:11:39.240 align:start position:0% thousand five hundred now of course the debt<00:11:37.240> varied<00:11:37.810> greatly<00:11:38.050> between<00:11:38.440> the<00:11:38.830> students 00:11:39.240 --> 00:11:39.250 align:start position:0% debt varied greatly between the students 00:11:39.250 --> 00:11:42.000 align:start position:0% debt varied greatly between the students in<00:11:39.340> our<00:11:39.430> sample<00:11:39.970> and<00:11:40.290> we<00:11:41.290> subsequently 00:11:42.000 --> 00:11:42.010 align:start position:0% in our sample and we subsequently 00:11:42.010 --> 00:11:44.640 align:start position:0% in our sample and we subsequently calculated<00:11:42.850> that<00:11:43.300> the<00:11:43.480> standard<00:11:43.990> deviation 00:11:44.640 --> 00:11:44.650 align:start position:0% calculated that the standard deviation 00:11:44.650 --> 00:11:48.300 align:start position:0% calculated that the standard deviation of<00:11:44.740> that<00:11:44.920> sample<00:11:45.400> was<00:11:45.910> eight<00:11:46.090> thousand<00:11:46.480> pounds 00:11:48.300 --> 00:11:48.310 align:start position:0% of that sample was eight thousand pounds 00:11:48.310 --> 00:11:50.550 align:start position:0% of that sample was eight thousand pounds is<00:11:48.760> this<00:11:49.150> evidence<00:11:49.390> to<00:11:49.960> suggest<00:11:50.140> that 00:11:50.550 --> 00:11:50.560 align:start position:0% is this evidence to suggest that 00:11:50.560 --> 00:11:55.160 align:start position:0% is this evidence to suggest that reported<00:11:51.460> debt<00:11:51.730> of<00:11:52.020> 18,000<00:11:53.020> is<00:11:53.260> understated 00:11:55.160 --> 00:11:55.170 align:start position:0% reported debt of 18,000 is understated 00:11:55.170 --> 00:11:58.140 align:start position:0% reported debt of 18,000 is understated the<00:11:56.170> first<00:11:56.500> step<00:11:56.800> in<00:11:56.920> hypothesis<00:11:57.520> testing<00:11:57.970> is 00:11:58.140 --> 00:11:58.150 align:start position:0% the first step in hypothesis testing is 00:11:58.150 --> 00:12:01.019 align:start position:0% the first step in hypothesis testing is to<00:11:58.450> specify<00:11:58.690> the<00:11:59.020> null<00:11:59.470> hypothesis<00:12:00.370> H<00:12:00.640> naught 00:12:01.019 --> 00:12:01.029 align:start position:0% to specify the null hypothesis H naught 00:12:01.029 --> 00:12:04.579 align:start position:0% to specify the null hypothesis H naught and<00:12:01.390> the<00:12:02.020> alternative<00:12:02.650> hypothesis<00:12:03.430> H<00:12:03.700> 1<00:12:04.090> H 00:12:04.579 --> 00:12:04.589 align:start position:0% and the alternative hypothesis H 1 H 00:12:04.589 --> 00:12:07.410 align:start position:0% and the alternative hypothesis H 1 H naught<00:12:05.589> is<00:12:05.920> that<00:12:06.100> mu<00:12:06.430> the<00:12:06.940> mean<00:12:07.180> average 00:12:07.410 --> 00:12:07.420 align:start position:0% naught is that mu the mean average 00:12:07.420 --> 00:12:10.650 align:start position:0% naught is that mu the mean average student<00:12:07.990> debt<00:12:08.050> is<00:12:08.440> indeed<00:12:09.400> equal<00:12:09.820> to<00:12:09.850> or<00:12:10.270> less 00:12:10.650 --> 00:12:10.660 align:start position:0% student debt is indeed equal to or less 00:12:10.660 --> 00:12:16.800 align:start position:0% student debt is indeed equal to or less than<00:12:11.460> 18,000<00:12:12.460> pounds<00:12:12.910> and<00:12:13.560> H<00:12:14.560> 1<00:12:14.980> that<00:12:15.600> mu<00:12:16.600> is 00:12:16.800 --> 00:12:16.810 align:start position:0% than 18,000 pounds and H 1 that mu is 00:12:16.810 --> 00:12:20.370 align:start position:0% than 18,000 pounds and H 1 that mu is greater<00:12:17.080> than<00:12:17.380> 18,000 00:12:20.370 --> 00:12:20.380 align:start position:0% 00:12:20.380 --> 00:12:23.100 align:start position:0% and<00:12:20.980> we<00:12:21.130> assume<00:12:21.490> that<00:12:22.030> H<00:12:22.180> naught<00:12:22.450> is<00:12:22.660> true 00:12:23.100 --> 00:12:23.110 align:start position:0% and we assume that H naught is true 00:12:23.110 --> 00:12:27.120 align:start position:0% and we assume that H naught is true unless<00:12:24.070> we<00:12:24.490> found<00:12:24.820> strong<00:12:25.240> evidence<00:12:25.720> that<00:12:25.930> H<00:12:26.650> 1 00:12:27.120 --> 00:12:27.130 align:start position:0% unless we found strong evidence that H 1 00:12:27.130 --> 00:12:30.260 align:start position:0% unless we found strong evidence that H 1 the<00:12:27.370> alternative<00:12:27.970> hypothesis<00:12:28.660> is<00:12:28.870> correct 00:12:30.260 --> 00:12:30.270 align:start position:0% the alternative hypothesis is correct 00:12:30.270 --> 00:12:33.090 align:start position:0% the alternative hypothesis is correct the<00:12:31.270> second<00:12:31.690> step<00:12:31.870> is<00:12:32.320> to<00:12:32.380> select<00:12:32.800> a 00:12:33.090 --> 00:12:33.100 align:start position:0% the second step is to select a 00:12:33.100 --> 00:12:35.460 align:start position:0% the second step is to select a significance<00:12:33.760> level<00:12:33.850> alpha<00:12:34.360> which<00:12:35.140> is<00:12:35.320> the 00:12:35.460 --> 00:12:35.470 align:start position:0% significance level alpha which is the 00:12:35.470 --> 00:12:37.950 align:start position:0% significance level alpha which is the level<00:12:35.710> of<00:12:35.890> scrutiny<00:12:36.130> used<00:12:36.760> for<00:12:37.060> rejecting<00:12:37.720> or 00:12:37.950 --> 00:12:37.960 align:start position:0% level of scrutiny used for rejecting or 00:12:37.960 --> 00:12:40.050 align:start position:0% level of scrutiny used for rejecting or accepting<00:12:37.990> the<00:12:38.620> hypothesis<00:12:39.280> the 00:12:40.050 --> 00:12:40.060 align:start position:0% accepting the hypothesis the 00:12:40.060 --> 00:12:41.550 align:start position:0% accepting the hypothesis the significance<00:12:40.720> level<00:12:40.810> shows<00:12:41.290> the 00:12:41.550 --> 00:12:41.560 align:start position:0% significance level shows the 00:12:41.560 --> 00:12:43.800 align:start position:0% significance level shows the significance<00:12:42.250> the<00:12:42.310> test<00:12:42.700> will<00:12:42.910> have<00:12:43.240> in<00:12:43.600> terms 00:12:43.800 --> 00:12:43.810 align:start position:0% significance the test will have in terms 00:12:43.810 --> 00:12:47.220 align:start position:0% significance the test will have in terms of<00:12:44.260> chance<00:12:44.530> occurrence<00:12:45.420> for<00:12:46.420> instance<00:12:46.750> if<00:12:46.930> we 00:12:47.220 --> 00:12:47.230 align:start position:0% of chance occurrence for instance if we 00:12:47.230 --> 00:12:49.170 align:start position:0% of chance occurrence for instance if we use<00:12:47.530> a<00:12:47.560> level<00:12:48.010> of<00:12:48.130> naught<00:12:48.460> point<00:12:48.700> zero<00:12:48.910> five 00:12:49.170 --> 00:12:49.180 align:start position:0% use a level of naught point zero five 00:12:49.180 --> 00:12:52.080 align:start position:0% use a level of naught point zero five five<00:12:49.690> percent<00:12:50.140> we're<00:12:51.100> willing<00:12:51.340> to<00:12:51.460> accept<00:12:51.970> a 00:12:52.080 --> 00:12:52.090 align:start position:0% five percent we're willing to accept a 00:12:52.090 --> 00:12:54.810 align:start position:0% five percent we're willing to accept a hypothesis<00:12:52.780> even<00:12:52.990> though<00:12:53.890> it<00:12:54.010> has<00:12:54.160> a<00:12:54.190> five<00:12:54.580> out 00:12:54.810 --> 00:12:54.820 align:start position:0% hypothesis even though it has a five out 00:12:54.820 --> 00:12:58.350 align:start position:0% hypothesis even though it has a five out of<00:12:54.850> a<00:12:55.030> hundred<00:12:55.060> chance<00:12:55.570> of<00:12:55.870> being<00:12:56.080> wrong<00:12:57.360> now 00:12:58.350 --> 00:12:58.360 align:start position:0% of a hundred chance of being wrong now 00:12:58.360 --> 00:12:59.790 align:start position:0% of a hundred chance of being wrong now although<00:12:58.510> the<00:12:58.720> choice<00:12:58.960> of<00:12:59.170> significance 00:12:59.790 --> 00:12:59.800 align:start position:0% although the choice of significance 00:12:59.800 --> 00:13:03.090 align:start position:0% although the choice of significance level<00:13:00.250> is<00:13:00.370> largely<00:13:01.030> subjective<00:13:01.740> the<00:13:02.740> rule<00:13:02.920> of 00:13:03.090 --> 00:13:03.100 align:start position:0% level is largely subjective the rule of 00:13:03.100 --> 00:13:04.710 align:start position:0% level is largely subjective the rule of thumb<00:13:03.340> is<00:13:03.490> to<00:13:03.520> use<00:13:03.640> a<00:13:03.850> five<00:13:04.240> percent 00:13:04.710 --> 00:13:04.720 align:start position:0% thumb is to use a five percent 00:13:04.720 --> 00:13:06.840 align:start position:0% thumb is to use a five percent significance<00:13:04.960> level<00:13:05.380> so<00:13:06.340> that's<00:13:06.460> what<00:13:06.700> we'll 00:13:06.840 --> 00:13:06.850 align:start position:0% significance level so that's what we'll 00:13:06.850 --> 00:13:10.410 align:start position:0% significance level so that's what we'll do<00:13:07.030> here<00:13:08.100> the<00:13:09.100> third<00:13:09.310> step<00:13:09.580> is<00:13:09.760> to<00:13:09.790> calculate<00:13:10.120> a 00:13:10.410 --> 00:13:10.420 align:start position:0% do here the third step is to calculate a 00:13:10.420 --> 00:13:15.570 align:start position:0% do here the third step is to calculate a test<00:13:10.930> statistic<00:13:11.380> Z<00:13:12.660> and<00:13:13.660> to<00:13:13.870> do<00:13:14.020> this<00:13:14.400> we<00:13:15.400> use 00:13:15.570 --> 00:13:15.580 align:start position:0% test statistic Z and to do this we use 00:13:15.580 --> 00:13:19.770 align:start position:0% test statistic Z and to do this we use the<00:13:15.760> following<00:13:15.880> formula<00:13:16.260> the<00:13:17.260> Z<00:13:17.680> equals<00:13:18.460> x<00:13:19.300> bar 00:13:19.770 --> 00:13:19.780 align:start position:0% the following formula the Z equals x bar 00:13:19.780 --> 00:13:24.870 align:start position:0% the following formula the Z equals x bar minus<00:13:20.650> mu<00:13:20.950> naught<00:13:21.810> over<00:13:22.860> Sigma<00:13:23.860> over<00:13:24.520> the 00:13:24.870 --> 00:13:24.880 align:start position:0% minus mu naught over Sigma over the 00:13:24.880 --> 00:13:28.830 align:start position:0% minus mu naught over Sigma over the square<00:13:25.030> root<00:13:25.420> of<00:13:25.510> n<00:13:25.830> where<00:13:26.830> X<00:13:27.640> bar<00:13:28.120> is<00:13:28.480> the 00:13:28.830 --> 00:13:28.840 align:start position:0% square root of n where X bar is the 00:13:28.840 --> 00:13:33.900 align:start position:0% square root of n where X bar is the sample<00:13:29.500> mean<00:13:30.690> mu<00:13:31.690> naught<00:13:32.170> is<00:13:32.590> the<00:13:33.220> originally 00:13:33.900 --> 00:13:33.910 align:start position:0% sample mean mu naught is the originally 00:13:33.910 --> 00:13:38.190 align:start position:0% sample mean mu naught is the originally reported<00:13:34.120> mean<00:13:35.790> Sigma<00:13:36.790> is<00:13:37.300> the<00:13:37.840> standard 00:13:38.190 --> 00:13:38.200 align:start position:0% reported mean Sigma is the standard 00:13:38.200 --> 00:13:43.570 align:start position:0% reported mean Sigma is the standard deviation<00:13:38.410> and<00:13:39.600> n<00:13:40.600> is<00:13:40.870> the<00:13:41.410> sample<00:13:41.590> size 00:13:43.570 --> 00:13:43.580 align:start position:0% deviation and n is the sample size 00:13:43.580 --> 00:13:48.579 align:start position:0% deviation and n is the sample size this<00:13:44.269> gives<00:13:44.510> us<00:13:45.670> 19500<00:13:46.670> -<00:13:47.660> eighteen<00:13:48.019> thousand 00:13:48.579 --> 00:13:48.589 align:start position:0% this gives us 19500 - eighteen thousand 00:13:48.589 --> 00:13:52.810 align:start position:0% this gives us 19500 - eighteen thousand over<00:13:50.080> eight<00:13:51.080> thousand<00:13:51.709> divided<00:13:52.100> by<00:13:52.399> the 00:13:52.810 --> 00:13:52.820 align:start position:0% over eight thousand divided by the 00:13:52.820 --> 00:13:55.220 align:start position:0% over eight thousand divided by the square<00:13:53.089> root<00:13:53.120> of<00:13:53.360> a<00:13:53.480> hundred 00:13:55.220 --> 00:13:55.230 align:start position:0% square root of a hundred 00:13:55.230 --> 00:14:00.220 align:start position:0% square root of a hundred which<00:13:55.860> is<00:13:56.660> 1,500<00:13:57.660> over<00:13:58.320> 800 00:14:00.220 --> 00:14:00.230 align:start position:0% which is 1,500 over 800 00:14:00.230 --> 00:14:04.790 align:start position:0% which is 1,500 over 800 which<00:14:00.830> is<00:14:01.060> 1.8<00:14:02.060> 75 00:14:04.790 --> 00:14:04.800 align:start position:0% which is 1.8 75 00:14:04.800 --> 00:14:07.579 align:start position:0% which is 1.8 75 now<00:14:05.429> the<00:14:05.489> fourth<00:14:05.850> step<00:14:06.239> is<00:14:06.540> to<00:14:06.989> set<00:14:07.439> the 00:14:07.579 --> 00:14:07.589 align:start position:0% now the fourth step is to set the 00:14:07.589 --> 00:14:11.840 align:start position:0% now the fourth step is to set the rejection<00:14:08.129> region<00:14:09.139> to<00:14:10.139> do<00:14:10.319> this<00:14:10.610> look<00:14:11.610> at<00:14:11.730> the 00:14:11.840 --> 00:14:11.850 align:start position:0% rejection region to do this look at the 00:14:11.850 --> 00:14:14.770 align:start position:0% rejection region to do this look at the normal<00:14:12.179> distribution<00:14:12.329> diagram 00:14:14.770 --> 00:14:14.780 align:start position:0% normal distribution diagram 00:14:14.780 --> 00:14:17.470 align:start position:0% normal distribution diagram here<00:14:15.500> we<00:14:15.620> have<00:14:15.770> a<00:14:15.800> one-tailed<00:14:16.430> test<00:14:16.910> we'll 00:14:17.470 --> 00:14:17.480 align:start position:0% here we have a one-tailed test we'll 00:14:17.480 --> 00:14:21.070 align:start position:0% here we have a one-tailed test we'll only<00:14:17.810> reject<00:14:18.410> the<00:14:18.590> null<00:14:18.770> hypothesis<00:14:19.550> if<00:14:19.790> Z<00:14:20.750> is 00:14:21.070 --> 00:14:21.080 align:start position:0% only reject the null hypothesis if Z is 00:14:21.080 --> 00:14:24.970 align:start position:0% only reject the null hypothesis if Z is in<00:14:21.710> the<00:14:21.830> shaded<00:14:22.100> region<00:14:22.930> we<00:14:23.930> won't<00:14:24.260> reject<00:14:24.530> it 00:14:24.970 --> 00:14:24.980 align:start position:0% in the shaded region we won't reject it 00:14:24.980 --> 00:14:28.660 align:start position:0% in the shaded region we won't reject it if<00:14:25.280> it's<00:14:25.940> in<00:14:26.150> the<00:14:26.300> other<00:14:26.960> tile<00:14:27.590> where<00:14:28.190> student 00:14:28.660 --> 00:14:28.670 align:start position:0% if it's in the other tile where student 00:14:28.670 --> 00:14:31.600 align:start position:0% if it's in the other tile where student debt<00:14:28.940> would<00:14:29.210> appear<00:14:29.510> to<00:14:29.540> be<00:14:29.780> less<00:14:30.610> than 00:14:31.600 --> 00:14:31.610 align:start position:0% debt would appear to be less than 00:14:31.610 --> 00:14:35.980 align:start position:0% debt would appear to be less than suggested<00:14:32.420> by<00:14:32.540> the<00:14:32.600> official<00:14:33.080> statistics<00:14:34.990> we 00:14:35.980 --> 00:14:35.990 align:start position:0% suggested by the official statistics we 00:14:35.990 --> 00:14:38.050 align:start position:0% suggested by the official statistics we need<00:14:36.200> to<00:14:36.290> put<00:14:36.470> all<00:14:36.770> of<00:14:36.830> alpha<00:14:37.730> in<00:14:37.910> the 00:14:38.050 --> 00:14:38.060 align:start position:0% need to put all of alpha in the 00:14:38.060 --> 00:14:41.280 align:start position:0% need to put all of alpha in the right-hand<00:14:38.600> tile<00:14:38.900> and<00:14:39.520> we'll<00:14:40.520> reject<00:14:41.060> a<00:14:41.240> null 00:14:41.280 --> 00:14:41.290 align:start position:0% right-hand tile and we'll reject a null 00:14:41.290 --> 00:14:45.960 align:start position:0% right-hand tile and we'll reject a null hypothesis<00:14:42.520> only<00:14:43.520> if<00:14:43.700> Z<00:14:44.090> is<00:14:44.360> greater<00:14:44.780> than 00:14:45.960 --> 00:14:45.970 align:start position:0% hypothesis only if Z is greater than 00:14:45.970 --> 00:14:49.460 align:start position:0% hypothesis only if Z is greater than 1.96 00:14:49.460 --> 00:14:49.470 align:start position:0% 00:14:49.470 --> 00:14:52.130 align:start position:0% the<00:14:50.100> fifth<00:14:50.370> and<00:14:50.610> final<00:14:50.820> step<00:14:51.090> is<00:14:51.450> to<00:14:51.840> draw<00:14:52.110> a 00:14:52.130 --> 00:14:52.140 align:start position:0% the fifth and final step is to draw a 00:14:52.140 --> 00:14:56.210 align:start position:0% the fifth and final step is to draw a conclusion<00:14:52.470> about<00:14:53.160> our<00:14:53.370> hypothesis<00:14:54.890> 1.87<00:14:55.890> 5 00:14:56.210 --> 00:14:56.220 align:start position:0% conclusion about our hypothesis 1.87 5 00:14:56.220 --> 00:15:00.500 align:start position:0% conclusion about our hypothesis 1.87 5 is<00:14:56.460> less<00:14:56.790> than<00:14:57.050> 1.96<00:14:58.160> so<00:14:59.160> zed<00:14:59.430> is<00:14:59.460> not<00:15:00.030> in<00:15:00.390> the 00:15:00.500 --> 00:15:00.510 align:start position:0% is less than 1.96 so zed is not in the 00:15:00.510 --> 00:15:03.260 align:start position:0% is less than 1.96 so zed is not in the rejection<00:15:00.900> region<00:15:01.370> therefore<00:15:02.370> we<00:15:02.820> fail<00:15:03.240> to 00:15:03.260 --> 00:15:03.270 align:start position:0% rejection region therefore we fail to 00:15:03.270 --> 00:15:06.680 align:start position:0% rejection region therefore we fail to reject<00:15:03.840> the<00:15:04.350> null<00:15:04.380> hypothesis<00:15:05.340> we<00:15:06.210> cannot 00:15:06.680 --> 00:15:06.690 align:start position:0% reject the null hypothesis we cannot 00:15:06.690 --> 00:15:08.530 align:start position:0% reject the null hypothesis we cannot conclude<00:15:06.960> that<00:15:07.380> the<00:15:07.530> official<00:15:07.890> statistics 00:15:08.530 --> 00:15:08.540 align:start position:0% conclude that the official statistics 00:15:08.540 --> 00:15:10.820 align:start position:0% conclude that the official statistics understate<00:15:09.540> the<00:15:09.570> problem<00:15:10.140> of<00:15:10.260> student<00:15:10.620> debt 00:15:10.820 --> 00:15:10.830 align:start position:0% understate the problem of student debt 00:15:10.830 --> 00:15:14.960 align:start position:0% understate the problem of student debt in<00:15:11.240> terms<00:15:12.240> of<00:15:12.420> our<00:15:12.570> analogy<00:15:13.070> we<00:15:14.070> declare<00:15:14.730> the 00:15:14.960 --> 00:15:14.970 align:start position:0% in terms of our analogy we declare the 00:15:14.970 --> 00:15:17.480 align:start position:0% in terms of our analogy we declare the prisoner<00:15:15.450> still<00:15:15.750> to<00:15:15.930> be<00:15:16.050> innocent<00:15:16.290> we<00:15:17.160> can't 00:15:17.480 --> 00:15:17.490 align:start position:0% prisoner still to be innocent we can't 00:15:17.490 --> 00:15:22.290 align:start position:0% prisoner still to be innocent we can't be<00:15:17.760> sure<00:15:17.790> enough<00:15:18.660> that<00:15:19.050> he's<00:15:19.230> guilty 00:15:22.290 --> 00:15:22.300 align:start position:0% 00:15:22.300 --> 00:15:25.860 align:start position:0% now<00:15:23.050> look<00:15:23.320> again<00:15:23.560> at<00:15:23.740> the<00:15:23.860> formula<00:15:24.870> notice 00:15:25.860 --> 00:15:25.870 align:start position:0% now look again at the formula notice 00:15:25.870 --> 00:15:29.850 align:start position:0% now look again at the formula notice that<00:15:26.440> if<00:15:26.620> our<00:15:26.740> sample<00:15:27.160> n<00:15:27.790> was<00:15:28.150> bigger<00:15:28.480> or<00:15:28.870> the 00:15:29.850 --> 00:15:29.860 align:start position:0% that if our sample n was bigger or the 00:15:29.860 --> 00:15:32.250 align:start position:0% that if our sample n was bigger or the standard<00:15:30.310> deviation<00:15:30.940> of<00:15:31.030> our<00:15:31.180> sample<00:15:31.780> Sigma 00:15:32.250 --> 00:15:32.260 align:start position:0% standard deviation of our sample Sigma 00:15:32.260 --> 00:15:35.520 align:start position:0% standard deviation of our sample Sigma was<00:15:32.440> smaller<00:15:33.150> z<00:15:34.150> might<00:15:34.840> have<00:15:35.020> been<00:15:35.230> greater 00:15:35.520 --> 00:15:35.530 align:start position:0% was smaller z might have been greater 00:15:35.530 --> 00:15:37.970 align:start position:0% was smaller z might have been greater than<00:15:35.700> 1.96 00:15:37.970 --> 00:15:37.980 align:start position:0% than 1.96 00:15:37.980 --> 00:15:40.560 align:start position:0% than 1.96 you<00:15:38.980> might<00:15:39.160> try<00:15:39.340> to<00:15:39.460> find<00:15:39.880> Zed 00:15:40.560 --> 00:15:40.570 align:start position:0% you might try to find Zed 00:15:40.570 --> 00:15:45.780 align:start position:0% you might try to find Zed if<00:15:40.860> Sigma<00:15:41.860> had<00:15:42.070> been<00:15:42.600> 7,000<00:15:44.010> or<00:15:45.010> alternatively 00:15:45.780 --> 00:15:45.790 align:start position:0% if Sigma had been 7,000 or alternatively 00:15:45.790 --> 00:15:48.570 align:start position:0% if Sigma had been 7,000 or alternatively if<00:15:46.510> the<00:15:47.140> sample<00:15:47.650> had<00:15:47.860> been<00:15:47.890> a<00:15:48.070> hundred<00:15:48.460> and 00:15:48.570 --> 00:15:48.580 align:start position:0% if the sample had been a hundred and 00:15:48.580 --> 00:15:52.950 align:start position:0% if the sample had been a hundred and forty-four<00:15:49.620> in<00:15:50.620> each<00:15:50.980> case<00:15:51.400> your<00:15:52.360> answer 00:15:52.950 --> 00:15:52.960 align:start position:0% forty-four in each case your answer 00:15:52.960 --> 00:15:56.970 align:start position:0% forty-four in each case your answer should<00:15:53.650> be<00:15:53.710> greater<00:15:54.280> than<00:15:54.600> 1.96<00:15:55.600> and<00:15:55.930> we<00:15:56.740> would 00:15:56.970 --> 00:15:56.980 align:start position:0% should be greater than 1.96 and we would 00:15:56.980 --> 00:15:59.480 align:start position:0% should be greater than 1.96 and we would then<00:15:57.250> have<00:15:57.490> rejected<00:15:57.940> the<00:15:58.300> null<00:15:58.480> hypothesis 00:15:59.480 --> 00:15:59.490 align:start position:0% then have rejected the null hypothesis 00:15:59.490 --> 00:16:01.980 align:start position:0% then have rejected the null hypothesis concluding<00:16:00.490> that<00:16:00.640> mean<00:16:00.940> average<00:16:01.540> student 00:16:01.980 --> 00:16:01.990 align:start position:0% concluding that mean average student 00:16:01.990 --> 00:16:05.340 align:start position:0% concluding that mean average student debt<00:16:02.250> really<00:16:03.250> was<00:16:03.460> greater<00:16:03.940> than<00:16:04.350> 18,000 00:16:05.340 --> 00:16:05.350 align:start position:0% debt really was greater than 18,000 00:16:05.350 --> 00:16:08.220 align:start position:0% debt really was greater than 18,000 pounds<00:16:06.090> now<00:16:07.090> think<00:16:07.300> about<00:16:07.390> the<00:16:07.630> hotel<00:16:07.810> chain 00:16:08.220 --> 00:16:08.230 align:start position:0% pounds now think about the hotel chain 00:16:08.230 --> 00:16:09.270 align:start position:0% pounds now think about the hotel chain that<00:16:08.410> we<00:16:08.560> looked<00:16:08.770> at 00:16:09.270 --> 00:16:09.280 align:start position:0% that we looked at 00:16:09.280 --> 00:16:12.030 align:start position:0% that we looked at they<00:16:10.060> thought<00:16:10.390> that<00:16:10.750> customers<00:16:11.590> would<00:16:11.740> pay 00:16:12.030 --> 00:16:12.040 align:start position:0% they thought that customers would pay 00:16:12.040 --> 00:16:15.000 align:start position:0% they thought that customers would pay $20<00:16:12.850> a<00:16:12.880> night<00:16:12.970> on<00:16:13.330> average<00:16:13.620> for<00:16:14.620> a<00:16:14.650> large 00:16:15.000 --> 00:16:15.010 align:start position:0% $20 a night on average for a large 00:16:15.010 --> 00:16:19.110 align:start position:0% $20 a night on average for a large flat-screen<00:16:15.910> TV<00:16:16.980> now<00:16:17.980> they<00:16:18.130> had<00:16:18.280> a<00:16:18.310> sample<00:16:18.700> of 00:16:19.110 --> 00:16:19.120 align:start position:0% flat-screen TV now they had a sample of 00:16:19.120 --> 00:16:28.740 align:start position:0% flat-screen TV now they had a sample of 400<00:16:20.370> where<00:16:21.420> x-bar<00:16:22.420> was<00:16:22.770> $25<00:16:23.770> and<00:16:24.540> Sigma<00:16:25.740> $10<00:16:27.750> so 00:16:28.740 --> 00:16:28.750 align:start position:0% 400 where x-bar was $25 and Sigma $10 so 00:16:28.750 --> 00:16:30.870 align:start position:0% 400 where x-bar was $25 and Sigma $10 so try<00:16:28.990> to<00:16:29.020> use<00:16:29.320> the<00:16:29.560> values<00:16:30.040> to<00:16:30.280> test<00:16:30.580> whether 00:16:30.870 --> 00:16:30.880 align:start position:0% try to use the values to test whether 00:16:30.880 --> 00:16:32.730 align:start position:0% try to use the values to test whether the<00:16:31.150> mean<00:16:31.480> amount<00:16:31.990> that<00:16:32.200> they<00:16:32.350> would<00:16:32.380> be 00:16:32.730 --> 00:16:32.740 align:start position:0% the mean amount that they would be 00:16:32.740 --> 00:16:35.460 align:start position:0% the mean amount that they would be willing<00:16:32.980> to<00:16:33.280> pay<00:16:33.930> differs<00:16:34.930> from<00:16:35.110> what<00:16:35.350> the 00:16:35.460 --> 00:16:35.470 align:start position:0% willing to pay differs from what the 00:16:35.470 --> 00:16:39.810 align:start position:0% willing to pay differs from what the hotel<00:16:35.920> chain<00:16:36.280> thought<00:16:37.830> but<00:16:38.830> be<00:16:39.070> careful 00:16:39.810 --> 00:16:39.820 align:start position:0% hotel chain thought but be careful 00:16:39.820 --> 00:16:42.690 align:start position:0% hotel chain thought but be careful unlike<00:16:40.690> the<00:16:40.870> student<00:16:41.290> debt<00:16:41.560> example<00:16:42.370> that<00:16:42.520> we 00:16:42.690 --> 00:16:42.700 align:start position:0% unlike the student debt example that we 00:16:42.700 --> 00:16:49.989 align:start position:0% unlike the student debt example that we solved<00:16:43.240> this<00:16:44.050> is<00:16:44.350> a<00:16:44.740> two-tailed<00:16:45.520> test 00:16:49.989 --> 00:16:49.999 align:start position:0% 00:16:49.999 --> 00:16:52.489 align:start position:0% when<00:16:50.999> we<00:16:51.119> ask<00:16:51.300> what<00:16:51.449> should<00:16:51.990> be<00:16:52.199> done<00:16:52.379> about 00:16:52.489 --> 00:16:52.499 align:start position:0% when we ask what should be done about 00:16:52.499 --> 00:16:54.949 align:start position:0% when we ask what should be done about student<00:16:53.129> debt<00:16:53.189> there<00:16:53.850> are<00:16:53.970> no<00:16:54.119> universally 00:16:54.949 --> 00:16:54.959 align:start position:0% student debt there are no universally 00:16:54.959 --> 00:16:57.920 align:start position:0% student debt there are no universally agreed<00:16:55.319> right<00:16:55.619> answers<00:16:56.279> it's<00:16:57.089> expensive 00:16:57.920 --> 00:16:57.930 align:start position:0% agreed right answers it's expensive 00:16:57.930 --> 00:17:01.249 align:start position:0% agreed right answers it's expensive someone<00:16:58.619> has<00:16:58.800> to<00:16:58.949> fund<00:16:59.189> it<00:17:00.110> subsidizing<00:17:01.110> any 00:17:01.249 --> 00:17:01.259 align:start position:0% someone has to fund it subsidizing any 00:17:01.259 --> 00:17:03.230 align:start position:0% someone has to fund it subsidizing any student<00:17:01.800> involves<00:17:02.279> redistributing<00:17:03.029> income 00:17:03.230 --> 00:17:03.240 align:start position:0% student involves redistributing income 00:17:03.240 --> 00:17:05.380 align:start position:0% student involves redistributing income is<00:17:03.720> it<00:17:04.079> right<00:17:04.350> to<00:17:04.559> do<00:17:04.740> so 00:17:05.380 --> 00:17:05.390 align:start position:0% is it right to do so 00:17:05.390 --> 00:17:07.939 align:start position:0% is it right to do so but<00:17:06.390> if<00:17:06.480> we<00:17:06.630> understand<00:17:07.110> the<00:17:07.230> principles<00:17:07.799> of 00:17:07.939 --> 00:17:07.949 align:start position:0% but if we understand the principles of 00:17:07.949 --> 00:17:10.970 align:start position:0% but if we understand the principles of hypothesis<00:17:08.669> testing<00:17:09.120> we<00:17:09.779> can<00:17:10.110> at<00:17:10.260> least<00:17:10.289> see 00:17:10.970 --> 00:17:10.980 align:start position:0% hypothesis testing we can at least see 00:17:10.980 --> 00:17:13.370 align:start position:0% hypothesis testing we can at least see the<00:17:11.159> size<00:17:11.490> of<00:17:11.730> the<00:17:11.850> problem<00:17:12.059> and<00:17:12.539> get<00:17:13.079> some 00:17:13.370 --> 00:17:13.380 align:start position:0% the size of the problem and get some 00:17:13.380 --> 00:17:17.480 align:start position:0% the size of the problem and get some idea<00:17:13.860> of<00:17:14.069> how<00:17:14.669> reliable<00:17:15.449> the<00:17:15.569> data<00:17:15.779> is<00:17:16.079> I<00:17:16.490> think 00:17:17.480 --> 00:17:17.490 align:start position:0% idea of how reliable the data is I think 00:17:17.490 --> 00:17:19.419 align:start position:0% idea of how reliable the data is I think otherwise<00:17:17.880> you're<00:17:18.240> just<00:17:18.270> going<00:17:18.539> on<00:17:18.720> gut<00:17:18.899> field 00:17:19.419 --> 00:17:19.429 align:start position:0% otherwise you're just going on gut field 00:17:19.429 --> 00:17:22.189 align:start position:0% otherwise you're just going on gut field but<00:17:20.429> if<00:17:20.520> you<00:17:20.640> really<00:17:20.909> want<00:17:21.120> a<00:17:21.299> robust<00:17:21.750> measure 00:17:22.189 --> 00:17:22.199 align:start position:0% but if you really want a robust measure 00:17:22.199 --> 00:17:25.939 align:start position:0% but if you really want a robust measure something<00:17:22.980> defendable<00:17:24.169> then<00:17:25.169> statistics 00:17:25.939 --> 00:17:25.949 align:start position:0% something defendable then statistics 00:17:25.949 --> 00:17:41.210 align:start position:0% something defendable then statistics becomes<00:17:26.279> important 00:17:41.210 --> 00:17:41.220 align:start position:0% 00:17:41.220 --> 00:17:43.280 align:start position:0% you