WEBVTT
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in<00:00:05.310> the<00:00:05.460> last<00:00:05.609> film<00:00:05.910> we<00:00:06.480> looked<00:00:06.690> at<00:00:06.839> variations
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in the last film we looked at variations
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in the last film we looked at variations
in<00:00:07.710> people's<00:00:08.099> weight<00:00:08.400> and<00:00:08.730> discovered<00:00:09.570> that
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in people's weight and discovered that
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in people's weight and discovered that
we<00:00:09.780> could<00:00:09.809> represent<00:00:10.230> a<00:00:10.710> whole<00:00:10.920> population<00:00:11.700> of
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we could represent a whole population of
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we could represent a whole population of
people<00:00:11.969> by<00:00:12.570> a<00:00:12.599> normal<00:00:13.110> distribution<00:00:13.849> we<00:00:14.849> can
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people by a normal distribution we can
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people by a normal distribution we can
explore<00:00:15.480> more<00:00:15.630> the<00:00:15.690> statistics<00:00:16.289> of<00:00:16.410> many
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explore more the statistics of many
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explore more the statistics of many
phenomena<00:00:17.520> using<00:00:17.910> this<00:00:18.060> concept<00:00:19.010> if<00:00:20.010> we've
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phenomena using this concept if we've
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phenomena using this concept if we've
measured<00:00:20.430> the<00:00:20.609> diameter<00:00:20.880> of<00:00:21.330> all<00:00:21.600> the<00:00:21.810> trees
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measured the diameter of all the trees
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measured the diameter of all the trees
in<00:00:22.080> the<00:00:22.380> wood<00:00:22.560> and<00:00:22.800> then<00:00:23.100> plotted<00:00:23.760> that
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in the wood and then plotted that
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in the wood and then plotted that
information<00:00:25.080> as<00:00:25.230> a<00:00:25.260> frequency<00:00:25.740> distribution
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information as a frequency distribution
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information as a frequency distribution
what<00:00:27.359> would<00:00:27.480> it<00:00:27.570> look<00:00:27.689> like<00:00:28.429> it<00:00:29.429> would<00:00:29.640> conform
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what would it look like it would conform
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what would it look like it would conform
to<00:00:30.480> something<00:00:30.960> like<00:00:31.140> a<00:00:31.199> normal<00:00:31.800> distribution
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to something like a normal distribution
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to something like a normal distribution
you<00:00:32.730> have<00:00:33.480> a<00:00:33.600> few<00:00:33.899> very<00:00:34.079> small<00:00:34.200> trees<00:00:34.920> a<00:00:35.270> few
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you have a few very small trees a few
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you have a few very small trees a few
very<00:00:36.690> large<00:00:37.140> ones<00:00:37.380> and<00:00:38.030> lots<00:00:39.030> and<00:00:39.270> lots<00:00:39.450> of
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very large ones and lots and lots of
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very large ones and lots and lots of
them
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them
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them
somewhere<00:00:40.950> in<00:00:41.040> between<00:00:42.290> we<00:00:43.290> can<00:00:43.469> use<00:00:43.649> these
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somewhere in between we can use these
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somewhere in between we can use these
principles<00:00:44.070> to<00:00:44.670> consider<00:00:45.120> the<00:00:45.539> probability
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principles to consider the probability
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principles to consider the probability
of<00:00:46.289> shares<00:00:46.710> making<00:00:47.219> a<00:00:47.340> given<00:00:47.610> return<00:00:48.860> the<00:00:49.860> way
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of shares making a given return the way
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of shares making a given return the way
in<00:00:50.129> which<00:00:50.280> wealth<00:00:50.579> and<00:00:50.850> income<00:00:50.940> is
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in which wealth and income is
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in which wealth and income is
distributed<00:00:52.129> order<00:00:53.129> likely<00:00:53.430> intelligence
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distributed order likely intelligence
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distributed order likely intelligence
quotient<00:00:54.570> of<00:00:54.629> any<00:00:54.840> person<00:00:55.410> or<00:00:55.590> group<00:00:55.620> of
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quotient of any person or group of
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quotient of any person or group of
people<00:00:56.600> the<00:00:57.600> list<00:00:57.840> is<00:00:57.989> endless<00:00:58.170> the<00:00:58.730> normal
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people the list is endless the normal
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people the list is endless the normal
distribution<00:01:00.359> is<00:01:00.840> one<00:01:01.289> of<00:01:01.410> the<00:01:01.500> most
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distribution is one of the most
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distribution is one of the most
important<00:01:02.309> concepts<00:01:02.730> and<00:01:02.940> statistics
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shoplifting<00:01:07.860> is<00:01:08.369> a<00:01:08.430> problem<00:01:09.030> for<00:01:09.210> retailers
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shoplifting is a problem for retailers
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shoplifting is a problem for retailers
everywhere<00:01:10.590> but<00:01:11.369> the<00:01:11.490> problem<00:01:11.909> is<00:01:12.360> not<00:01:12.900> taking
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everywhere but the problem is not taking
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everywhere but the problem is not taking
one<00:01:13.590> once<00:01:14.010> one<00:01:14.549> pieces<00:01:15.000> a<00:01:15.150> one<00:01:16.080> piece<00:01:16.380> of
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one once one pieces a one piece of
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one once one pieces a one piece of
merchandise<00:01:17.009> apparently<00:01:17.909> taking<00:01:18.270> the<00:01:18.390> whole
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merchandise apparently taking the whole
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merchandise apparently taking the whole
stack<00:01:19.049> and<00:01:19.350> running<00:01:19.680> that's<00:01:19.890> all<00:01:20.420> you<00:01:21.420> know
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stack and running that's all you know
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stack and running that's all you know
they<00:01:21.720> comment<00:01:23.000> every<00:01:24.000> retailer<00:01:24.720> suffers<00:01:25.110> from
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they comment every retailer suffers from
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they comment every retailer suffers from
it<00:01:25.759> what's<00:01:26.759> often<00:01:26.970> happened<00:01:27.390> with<00:01:27.540> I<00:01:27.720> mean
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it what's often happened with I mean
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it what's often happened with I mean
thieves<00:01:28.170> nowadays<00:01:28.619> is<00:01:28.860> you<00:01:29.009> steal<00:01:29.250> to<00:01:29.430> order
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thieves nowadays is you steal to order
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thieves nowadays is you steal to order
and<00:01:29.939> you<00:01:30.420> will<00:01:30.570> find<00:01:30.810> that<00:01:30.990> you<00:01:31.110> lose<00:01:31.350> a<00:01:31.380> lot<00:01:31.650> of
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and you will find that you lose a lot of
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and you will find that you lose a lot of
books<00:01:32.009> say<00:01:32.250> you<00:01:32.670> would<00:01:32.820> spot<00:01:33.090> that<00:01:33.390> and
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books say you would spot that and
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books say you would spot that and
because<00:01:34.200> we<00:01:34.350> know<00:01:34.530> what<00:01:34.740> should<00:01:34.890> be<00:01:35.040> on<00:01:35.159> our
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because we know what should be on our
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because we know what should be on our
shelves<00:01:36.799> news<00:01:37.799> agents<00:01:38.250> also<00:01:38.579> suffer<00:01:38.939> from
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shelves news agents also suffer from
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shelves news agents also suffer from
shoplifting<00:01:39.360> people<00:01:40.350> come<00:01:40.590> in<00:01:40.770> steal
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shoplifting people come in steal
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shoplifting people come in steal
magazines<00:01:42.020> newspapers<00:01:43.020> etc<00:01:44.090> how<00:01:45.090> do<00:01:45.149> they
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magazines newspapers etc how do they
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magazines newspapers etc how do they
control<00:01:45.750> it<00:01:46.520> at<00:01:47.520> one<00:01:47.700> thing<00:01:47.820> they<00:01:47.970> can<00:01:48.119> do<00:01:48.270> is
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control it at one thing they can do is
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control it at one thing they can do is
install<00:01:49.020> security<00:01:49.619> devices<00:01:49.950> like<00:01:50.310> this<00:01:50.490> one
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install security devices like this one
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install security devices like this one
but<00:01:51.659> it<00:01:51.750> costs<00:01:52.340> and<00:01:53.340> so<00:01:53.490> whatever<00:01:53.670> they<00:01:53.939> do
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but it costs and so whatever they do
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but it costs and so whatever they do
it's<00:01:54.600> going<00:01:54.750> to<00:01:54.810> reduce<00:01:55.020> their<00:01:55.380> profits
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it's going to reduce their profits
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it's going to reduce their profits
preventing<00:01:57.329> a<00:01:57.420> discouraging<00:01:58.049> theft<00:01:58.409> is
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preventing a discouraging theft is
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preventing a discouraging theft is
costly<00:01:59.479> businesses<00:02:00.479> respond<00:02:00.930> to<00:02:01.020> shoplifting
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costly businesses respond to shoplifting
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costly businesses respond to shoplifting
in<00:02:01.680> many<00:02:01.890> ways<00:02:02.159> with<00:02:02.549> security<00:02:03.479> systems<00:02:03.869> with
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in many ways with security systems with
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in many ways with security systems with
item<00:02:04.979> tags<00:02:05.280> and<00:02:05.610> with<00:02:06.299> trained<00:02:06.719> staff<00:02:07.079> and
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item tags and with trained staff and
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item tags and with trained staff and
surveillance
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surveillance
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surveillance
even<00:02:09.220> University<00:02:09.850> Libraries<00:02:10.390> lose<00:02:10.660> books<00:02:10.990> to
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even University Libraries lose books to
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even University Libraries lose books to
thieves
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thieves
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thieves
in<00:02:12.850> response<00:02:13.390> this<00:02:14.020> library<00:02:14.290> has<00:02:14.590> installed
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in response this library has installed
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in response this library has installed
electronic<00:02:15.790> item<00:02:16.120> tanks<00:02:16.540> and<00:02:16.690> electronic
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electronic item tanks and electronic
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electronic item tanks and electronic
gates<00:02:18.660> most<00:02:19.660> businesses<00:02:20.200> simply<00:02:20.470> accept<00:02:21.010> that
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gates most businesses simply accept that
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gates most businesses simply accept that
some<00:02:21.430> theft<00:02:21.670> is<00:02:21.850> going<00:02:22.060> to<00:02:22.150> take<00:02:22.330> place<00:02:22.510> and
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some theft is going to take place and
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some theft is going to take place and
include<00:02:23.590> such<00:02:23.800> losses<00:02:24.250> in<00:02:24.430> their<00:02:24.550> business
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include such losses in their business
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include such losses in their business
calculations<00:02:25.800> these<00:02:26.800> self-service<00:02:27.520> things
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calculations these self-service things
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calculations these self-service things
saves<00:02:28.840> the<00:02:28.990> shop<00:02:29.200> quite<00:02:29.470> a<00:02:29.500> lot<00:02:29.680> of<00:02:29.709> money<00:02:29.920> it
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saves the shop quite a lot of money it
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saves the shop quite a lot of money it
saves<00:02:30.700> them<00:02:30.910> on<00:02:31.030> library<00:02:31.390> costs<00:02:31.810> the<00:02:32.680> trouble
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saves them on library costs the trouble
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saves them on library costs the trouble
is<00:02:33.160> it<00:02:33.760> also<00:02:34.030> makes<00:02:34.240> it<00:02:34.360> much<00:02:34.510> easier<00:02:34.780> for
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is it also makes it much easier for
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is it also makes it much easier for
people<00:02:35.230> to<00:02:35.470> shoplift<00:02:36.660> so<00:02:37.660> why<00:02:37.840> do<00:02:37.900> they<00:02:38.110> have
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people to shoplift so why do they have
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people to shoplift so why do they have
these<00:02:38.500> things<00:02:38.860> here<00:02:41.130> because<00:02:42.130> the<00:02:42.340> savings<00:02:42.940> on
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these things here because the savings on
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these things here because the savings on
the<00:02:43.300> labor<00:02:43.510> costs<00:02:44.140> are<00:02:44.260> greater<00:02:44.680> than<00:02:45.130> the
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the labor costs are greater than the
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the labor costs are greater than the
losses<00:02:45.820> on<00:02:45.970> the<00:02:46.060> shoplifting<00:02:46.660> shoplifting
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losses on the shoplifting shoplifting
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losses on the shoplifting shoplifting
adds<00:02:48.280> to<00:02:48.520> the<00:02:48.610> cost<00:02:48.880> of<00:02:49.060> running<00:02:49.209> a<00:02:49.420> retail
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adds to the cost of running a retail
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adds to the cost of running a retail
business<00:02:50.250> this<00:02:51.250> cost<00:02:51.550> is<00:02:51.730> estimated<00:02:52.360> at<00:02:52.480> about
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business this cost is estimated at about
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business this cost is estimated at about
1/3<00:02:53.620> of<00:02:53.890> 1%<00:02:54.130> of<00:02:54.700> sales
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1/3 of 1% of sales
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1/3 of 1% of sales
it<00:02:55.989> doesn't<00:02:56.350> sound<00:02:56.590> much<00:02:56.770> but<00:02:57.430> it<00:02:57.550> has<00:02:57.700> around
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it doesn't sound much but it has around
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it doesn't sound much but it has around
a<00:02:58.239> hundred<00:02:58.390> of<00:02:58.690> thirty<00:02:58.900> pounds<00:02:59.560> to<00:03:00.040> the
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a hundred of thirty pounds to the
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a hundred of thirty pounds to the
average<00:03:00.520> family's<00:03:01.000> annual<00:03:01.270> shopping<00:03:01.989> bill
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average family's annual shopping bill
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average family's annual shopping bill
how<00:03:04.570> big<00:03:04.750> a<00:03:04.840> problem<00:03:05.170> is<00:03:05.890> shoplifting<00:03:06.580> for<00:03:06.880> the
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how big a problem is shoplifting for the
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how big a problem is shoplifting for the
individual<00:03:07.510> store<00:03:07.870> it<00:03:08.860> varies<00:03:09.430> from<00:03:09.640> store<00:03:10.000> to
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individual store it varies from store to
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individual store it varies from store to
store<00:03:10.680> it<00:03:11.680> varies<00:03:12.160> from<00:03:12.400> day<00:03:12.700> to<00:03:12.760> day<00:03:13.590> but<00:03:14.590> the
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store it varies from day to day but the
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store it varies from day to day but the
pattern<00:03:15.250> conforms<00:03:16.209> to<00:03:16.299> a<00:03:16.420> normal
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pattern conforms to a normal
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pattern conforms to a normal
distribution<00:03:17.670> and<00:03:18.670> that<00:03:18.850> means<00:03:19.060> that<00:03:19.269> we
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distribution and that means that we
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distribution and that means that we
could<00:03:19.630> say<00:03:19.840> quite<00:03:20.260> a<00:03:20.290> lot<00:03:21.000> because<00:03:22.000> we<00:03:22.330> can<00:03:22.510> use
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could say quite a lot because we can use
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could say quite a lot because we can use
our<00:03:23.110> normal<00:03:23.560> distribution<00:03:23.890> to<00:03:24.730> examine<00:03:25.150> a
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our normal distribution to examine a
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our normal distribution to examine a
whole<00:03:25.450> range<00:03:25.810> of<00:03:26.080> problems<00:03:26.620> about<00:03:27.220> the<00:03:27.459> size
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whole range of problems about the size
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whole range of problems about the size
of<00:03:28.120> the<00:03:28.239> loss<00:03:29.100> but<00:03:30.100> if<00:03:30.220> we're<00:03:30.340> going<00:03:30.489> to<00:03:30.610> do
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of the loss but if we're going to do
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of the loss but if we're going to do
that<00:03:31.030> we<00:03:31.870> first<00:03:32.170> have<00:03:32.440> to<00:03:32.590> transform<00:03:33.459> the
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that we first have to transform the
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that we first have to transform the
normal<00:03:34.390> distribution<00:03:35.049> into<00:03:35.560> the<00:03:35.890> standard
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normal distribution into the standard
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normal distribution into the standard
normal<00:03:36.820> distribution<00:03:38.010> let's<00:03:39.010> see<00:03:39.190> how<00:03:39.310> we<00:03:39.370> do
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normal distribution let's see how we do
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normal distribution let's see how we do
that<00:03:40.739> the<00:03:41.739> standard<00:03:42.190> normal<00:03:42.220> distribution
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that the standard normal distribution
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that the standard normal distribution
has<00:03:43.329> a<00:03:43.360> mean<00:03:43.480> of<00:03:43.720> 0<00:03:44.170> and<00:03:44.260> a<00:03:45.100> standard<00:03:45.130> deviation
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has a mean of 0 and a standard deviation
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has a mean of 0 and a standard deviation
equal<00:03:46.450> to<00:03:46.540> 1<00:03:46.780> we<00:03:47.590> can<00:03:47.709> look<00:03:48.040> at<00:03:48.190> the<00:03:48.280> area<00:03:48.700> under
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equal to 1 we can look at the area under
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equal to 1 we can look at the area under
the<00:03:49.209> curve<00:03:49.239> by<00:03:50.170> converting<00:03:50.680> into<00:03:51.220> what<00:03:51.489> are
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the curve by converting into what are
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the curve by converting into what are
called<00:03:51.870> z-scores<00:03:52.870> an<00:03:53.519> any<00:03:54.519> normal
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called z-scores an any normal
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called z-scores an any normal
distribution<00:03:55.500> can<00:03:56.500> be<00:03:56.530> converted<00:03:57.060> using<00:03:58.060> the
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distribution can be converted using the
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distribution can be converted using the
transformation<00:03:58.959> that<00:03:59.200> Z<00:04:00.100> equals<00:04:00.750> X<00:04:01.750> minus<00:04:01.989> mu
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transformation that Z equals X minus mu
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transformation that Z equals X minus mu
divided<00:04:03.670> by<00:04:03.820> Sigma
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where<00:04:06.380> X<00:04:06.860> is<00:04:07.370> the<00:04:07.670> score<00:04:08.180> of<00:04:08.360> the<00:04:08.480> original
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where X is the score of the original
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where X is the score of the original
normal<00:04:09.410> distribution<00:04:10.180> mu<00:04:11.180> is<00:04:11.480> the<00:04:12.110> mean<00:04:12.590> of
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normal distribution mu is the mean of
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normal distribution mu is the mean of
the<00:04:13.160> original<00:04:13.670> normal<00:04:14.090> distribution<00:04:15.370> Sigma
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the original normal distribution Sigma
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the original normal distribution Sigma
the<00:04:16.910> standard<00:04:17.360> deviation<00:04:17.989> of<00:04:18.200> the<00:04:18.770> original
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the standard deviation of the original
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the standard deviation of the original
normal<00:04:19.640> distribution<00:04:20.270> and<00:04:20.739> Z<00:04:21.739> is<00:04:22.400> the
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normal distribution and Z is the
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normal distribution and Z is the
standardized<00:04:23.240> variable<00:04:24.080> to<00:04:24.620> be<00:04:24.770> found
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standardized variable to be found
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standardized variable to be found
be<00:04:27.730> aware<00:04:28.230> whilst<00:04:29.230> any<00:04:29.620> normal<00:04:30.280> distribution
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be aware whilst any normal distribution
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be aware whilst any normal distribution
can<00:04:31.270> be<00:04:31.300> transformed<00:04:32.170> using<00:04:32.740> this<00:04:32.860> formula
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can be transformed using this formula
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can be transformed using this formula
the<00:04:34.300> formula<00:04:34.510> will<00:04:35.170> not<00:04:35.680> convert<00:04:36.340> a<00:04:36.670> skewed
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the formula will not convert a skewed
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the formula will not convert a skewed
distribution<00:04:37.590> into<00:04:38.590> one<00:04:38.800> that<00:04:38.950> is<00:04:39.010> not<00:04:39.430> skewed
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distribution into one that is not skewed
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distribution into one that is not skewed
so<00:04:42.010> we're<00:04:42.160> looking<00:04:42.460> at<00:04:42.580> our<00:04:42.700> theft<00:04:43.150> problem
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so we're looking at our theft problem
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so we're looking at our theft problem
because<00:04:44.650> the<00:04:44.860> theft<00:04:45.220> data<00:04:45.690> conforms<00:04:46.690> to<00:04:46.780> a
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because the theft data conforms to a
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because the theft data conforms to a
normal<00:04:47.590> distribution
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as<00:04:52.699> the<00:04:52.819> storm<00:04:53.060> losses<00:04:53.509> on<00:04:54.050> average<00:04:54.590> about<00:04:54.860> 200
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as the storm losses on average about 200
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as the storm losses on average about 200
pounds<00:04:55.729> a<00:04:55.849> day<00:04:56.440> and<00:04:57.440> we<00:04:57.560> know<00:04:57.650> the<00:04:57.860> standard
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pounds a day and we know the standard
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pounds a day and we know the standard
deviation<00:04:59.060> of<00:04:59.180> the<00:04:59.360> daily<00:04:59.810> loss<00:04:59.990> is<00:05:00.620> 30<00:05:01.009> pounds
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deviation of the daily loss is 30 pounds
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deviation of the daily loss is 30 pounds
now<00:05:03.560> let's<00:05:03.770> see<00:05:03.889> if<00:05:03.949> we<00:05:04.069> can<00:05:04.250> solve<00:05:04.490> a<00:05:04.789> number
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now let's see if we can solve a number
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now let's see if we can solve a number
of<00:05:05.150> problems<00:05:05.270> for<00:05:05.960> the<00:05:06.050> store<00:05:06.259> owner<00:05:06.819> first
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of problems for the store owner first
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of problems for the store owner first
what<00:05:08.569> are<00:05:08.660> the<00:05:08.750> chances<00:05:09.289> that<00:05:09.530> the<00:05:09.979> store<00:05:10.250> on
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what are the chances that the store on
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what are the chances that the store on
any<00:05:10.550> given<00:05:10.880> day<00:05:11.000> will<00:05:11.479> lose<00:05:11.690> more<00:05:12.050> than<00:05:12.319> 250
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any given day will lose more than 250
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any given day will lose more than 250
pounds<00:05:15.520> second<00:05:16.930> what<00:05:17.930> are<00:05:18.020> the<00:05:18.080> chances<00:05:18.710> that
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pounds second what are the chances that
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pounds second what are the chances that
the<00:05:19.190> storm<00:05:19.520> will<00:05:19.729> lose<00:05:19.970> between<00:05:21.160> 250<00:05:22.160> and<00:05:22.720> 350
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the storm will lose between 250 and 350
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the storm will lose between 250 and 350
pounds
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pounds
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pounds
third<00:05:27.550> what's<00:05:28.550> the<00:05:28.759> minimum<00:05:29.270> amount<00:05:29.590> that<00:05:30.590> the
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third what's the minimum amount that the
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third what's the minimum amount that the
store<00:05:31.039> can<00:05:31.310> expect<00:05:31.759> to<00:05:31.940> lose<00:05:32.150> the<00:05:33.050> majority<00:05:33.590> of
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store can expect to lose the majority of
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store can expect to lose the majority of
the<00:05:33.800> time<00:05:34.039> let's<00:05:34.490> say<00:05:35.199> 95%<00:05:36.199> of<00:05:36.319> the<00:05:36.440> days<00:05:37.630> we
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the time let's say 95% of the days we
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the time let's say 95% of the days we
want<00:05:38.810> to<00:05:38.900> know<00:05:39.020> the<00:05:39.139> probability<00:05:39.470> P<00:05:40.400> that<00:05:41.330> X<00:05:41.569> is
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want to know the probability P that X is
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want to know the probability P that X is
greater<00:05:42.470> than<00:05:42.740> 250<00:05:43.550> pounds<00:05:44.090> and<00:05:44.409> to<00:05:45.409> find<00:05:45.710> this
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greater than 250 pounds and to find this
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greater than 250 pounds and to find this
we'll<00:05:46.130> have<00:05:46.400> to<00:05:46.580> transform<00:05:47.360> the<00:05:47.690> normal
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we'll have to transform the normal
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we'll have to transform the normal
distribution<00:05:49.240> into<00:05:50.240> a<00:05:50.479> standardized<00:05:51.380> normal
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distribution into a standardized normal
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distribution into a standardized normal
distribution<00:05:52.099> and<00:05:52.819> find<00:05:53.479> the<00:05:53.599> z-score<00:05:55.030> thus
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distribution and find the z-score thus
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distribution and find the z-score thus
we<00:05:56.240> look<00:05:56.479> for<00:05:56.690> the<00:05:56.780> probability<00:05:57.259> P<00:05:57.919> of<00:05:58.340> Z<00:05:59.120> being
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we look for the probability P of Z being
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we look for the probability P of Z being
greater<00:05:59.990> than<00:06:00.949> X<00:06:01.340> minus<00:06:01.639> mu<00:06:02.479> over<00:06:03.289> Sigma
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greater than X minus mu over Sigma
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greater than X minus mu over Sigma
which<00:06:05.490> is<00:06:05.639> the<00:06:05.789> probability<00:06:06.030> that<00:06:06.750> Sid<00:06:07.560> is
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which is the probability that Sid is
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which is the probability that Sid is
greater<00:06:08.759> than<00:06:09.530> 250<00:06:11.180> -<00:06:12.180> 200<00:06:12.840> the<00:06:13.020> average<00:06:13.590> store
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greater than 250 - 200 the average store
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greater than 250 - 200 the average store
loss<00:06:14.300> over<00:06:15.300> 30<00:06:15.659> the<00:06:16.379> standard<00:06:16.770> deviation
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loss over 30 the standard deviation
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loss over 30 the standard deviation
which<00:06:19.319> means<00:06:19.710> we<00:06:20.460> want<00:06:20.699> the<00:06:20.909> probability<00:06:21.300> that
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which means we want the probability that
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which means we want the probability that
Z<00:06:22.409> is<00:06:22.680> greater<00:06:23.220> than<00:06:23.490> one<00:06:24.180> point<00:06:24.210> 6<00:06:24.780> 7<00:06:25.940> now<00:06:26.940> if
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Z is greater than one point 6 7 now if
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Z is greater than one point 6 7 now if
we<00:06:27.120> look<00:06:27.300> up<00:06:27.449> one<00:06:27.990> point<00:06:28.319> six<00:06:28.650> seven<00:06:28.919> in<00:06:29.190> our
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we look up one point six seven in our
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we look up one point six seven in our
standardized<00:06:30.060> normal<00:06:30.360> table<00:06:31.050> we<00:06:31.080> get<00:06:31.319> a<00:06:31.379> value
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standardized normal table we get a value
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standardized normal table we get a value
of<00:06:31.940> naught<00:06:32.940> point<00:06:33.409> naught<00:06:34.580> 475<00:06:35.930> that<00:06:36.930> is<00:06:37.080> the
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of naught point naught 475 that is the
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of naught point naught 475 that is the
answer<00:06:38.130> is<00:06:38.250> four<00:06:39.000> point<00:06:39.330> seven<00:06:39.599> five<00:06:39.900> percent
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answer is four point seven five percent
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answer is four point seven five percent
of<00:06:40.470> the<00:06:40.560> time<00:06:40.800> on<00:06:41.310> any<00:06:41.699> given<00:06:41.970> day<00:06:42.349> there's<00:06:43.349> are
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of the time on any given day there's are
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of the time on any given day there's are
just<00:06:43.770> less<00:06:43.979> than<00:06:44.009> five<00:06:44.400> percent<00:06:44.430> chance<00:06:45.060> that
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just less than five percent chance that
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just less than five percent chance that
the<00:06:45.750> store<00:06:46.199> will<00:06:46.440> lose<00:06:46.680> more<00:06:47.069> than<00:06:47.400> two
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the store will lose more than two
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the store will lose more than two
hundred<00:06:48.000> and<00:06:48.240> fifty<00:06:48.539> pounds
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now<00:06:52.440> let's<00:06:52.650> look<00:06:52.770> at<00:06:52.890> the<00:06:53.010> possibility<00:06:53.670> that
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now let's look at the possibility that
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now let's look at the possibility that
the<00:06:54.060> loss<00:06:54.390> in<00:06:54.750> the<00:06:54.900> day<00:06:55.140> will<00:06:56.100> be<00:06:56.310> somewhere
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the loss in the day will be somewhere
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the loss in the day will be somewhere
between<00:06:56.960> 250<00:06:57.960> and<00:06:58.230> 350<00:06:59.040> pounds<00:07:00.290> we'll<00:07:01.290> do<00:07:01.410> this
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between 250 and 350 pounds we'll do this
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between 250 and 350 pounds we'll do this
in<00:07:01.710> three<00:07:01.950> steps<00:07:02.270> step<00:07:03.270> one<00:07:03.920> we<00:07:04.920> know<00:07:05.190> that<00:07:05.550> the
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in three steps step one we know that the
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in three steps step one we know that the
probability<00:07:05.970> of<00:07:06.690> more<00:07:07.650> than<00:07:08.010> 250<00:07:08.730> pounds
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probability of more than 250 pounds
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probability of more than 250 pounds
being<00:07:09.420> lost<00:07:09.720> is<00:07:10.020> naught<00:07:10.740> point<00:07:11.190> naught<00:07:11.930> 475<00:07:12.930> we
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being lost is naught point naught 475 we
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being lost is naught point naught 475 we
just<00:07:13.980> did<00:07:14.250> that<00:07:14.490> in<00:07:14.760> the<00:07:15.210> first<00:07:15.420> problem<00:07:15.630> so
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just did that in the first problem so
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just did that in the first problem so
the<00:07:16.320> probability<00:07:17.040> of<00:07:17.310> a<00:07:18.210> loss<00:07:18.510> of<00:07:18.690> less<00:07:19.110> than
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the probability of a loss of less than
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the probability of a loss of less than
250<00:07:20.010> is<00:07:20.340> 1<00:07:21.300> minus<00:07:21.930> the<00:07:21.960> probability<00:07:22.290> that<00:07:23.250> X<00:07:23.520> is
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250 is 1 minus the probability that X is
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250 is 1 minus the probability that X is
greater<00:07:24.090> than<00:07:24.360> 250<00:07:25.130> 1<00:07:26.130> minus<00:07:26.640> naught<00:07:27.030> point
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greater than 250 1 minus naught point
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greater than 250 1 minus naught point
zero<00:07:27.660> four<00:07:27.990> seventy<00:07:28.440> five<00:07:28.700> equals<00:07:29.700> naught
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zero four seventy five equals naught
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zero four seventy five equals naught
point<00:07:30.960> nine<00:07:31.500> five<00:07:31.800> two<00:07:32.160> five
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step<00:07:35.410> two<00:07:35.620> now<00:07:36.270> find<00:07:37.270> the<00:07:37.450> probability<00:07:38.230> of<00:07:38.500> the
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step two now find the probability of the
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step two now find the probability of the
loss<00:07:39.130> being<00:07:39.400> more<00:07:39.880> than<00:07:40.240> 350<00:07:41.820> which<00:07:42.820> is<00:07:43.000> the
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loss being more than 350 which is the
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loss being more than 350 which is the
probability<00:07:43.800> that<00:07:44.800> Z<00:07:45.220> is<00:07:45.520> greater<00:07:46.210> than<00:07:46.650> X
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probability that Z is greater than X
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probability that Z is greater than X
minus<00:07:48.760> mu<00:07:49.060> over<00:07:49.570> Sigma<00:07:49.600> in<00:07:50.320> our<00:07:50.560> case<00:07:51.630> 350
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minus mu over Sigma in our case 350
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minus mu over Sigma in our case 350
minus<00:07:53.410> 200<00:07:54.010> over<00:07:54.220> 30<00:07:55.500> which<00:07:56.500> is<00:07:56.530> the
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minus 200 over 30 which is the
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minus 200 over 30 which is the
probability<00:07:57.130> that<00:07:57.580> said<00:07:57.880> is<00:07:58.060> greater<00:07:58.390> than<00:07:58.630> 5
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probability that said is greater than 5
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probability that said is greater than 5
which<00:08:01.240> is<00:08:01.300> someone<00:08:01.840> likely<00:08:02.080> that
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which is someone likely that
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which is someone likely that
approximates<00:08:03.760> to<00:08:03.880> 0<00:08:05.790> so<00:08:06.790> step<00:08:07.060> 3<00:08:08.250> the
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approximates to 0 so step 3 the
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approximates to 0 so step 3 the
probability<00:08:09.720> that<00:08:10.720> X<00:08:10.990> will<00:08:11.290> lie<00:08:11.470> between<00:08:11.910> 250
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probability that X will lie between 250
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probability that X will lie between 250
and<00:08:12.940> 350
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and 350
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and 350
is<00:08:16.080> one<00:08:17.080> minus<00:08:17.830> the<00:08:18.760> probability<00:08:18.790> of<00:08:19.510> X<00:08:19.930> being
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is one minus the probability of X being
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is one minus the probability of X being
less<00:08:20.350> than<00:08:20.830> 250<00:08:21.570> plus<00:08:22.570> the<00:08:22.800> probability<00:08:23.800> of<00:08:23.830> X
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less than 250 plus the probability of X
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less than 250 plus the probability of X
being<00:08:24.460> more<00:08:25.240> than<00:08:25.450> 350<00:08:26.640> which<00:08:27.640> is<00:08:28.080> 1<00:08:29.080> minus
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being more than 350 which is 1 minus
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being more than 350 which is 1 minus
naught<00:08:30.520> point<00:08:30.790> 5<00:08:31.120> 2<00:08:31.330> 5<00:08:31.650> plus<00:08:32.650> 0<00:08:33.300> which<00:08:34.300> equals
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naught point 5 2 5 plus 0 which equals
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naught point 5 2 5 plus 0 which equals
naught<00:08:35.650> point<00:08:35.950> naught<00:08:36.540> 475
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in<00:08:42.440> this<00:08:42.560> last<00:08:42.800> problem<00:08:43.099> were<00:08:43.339> interested<00:08:43.789> in
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in this last problem were interested in
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in this last problem were interested in
the<00:08:44.060> left<00:08:44.300> hand<00:08:44.630> tail<00:08:45.050> of<00:08:45.380> the<00:08:45.560> normal
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the left hand tail of the normal
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the left hand tail of the normal
distribution<00:08:46.180> the<00:08:47.180> lowest<00:08:47.630> 5%<00:08:49.330> now<00:08:50.330> given
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distribution the lowest 5% now given
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distribution the lowest 5% now given
that<00:08:50.750> a<00:08:50.839> lower<00:08:51.110> tail<00:08:51.529> value<00:08:52.100> of<00:08:52.270> minus<00:08:53.270> one
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that a lower tail value of minus one
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that a lower tail value of minus one
point<00:08:53.870> six<00:08:54.290> five<00:08:54.560> gives<00:08:55.370> a<00:08:55.490> tail<00:08:55.730> area<00:08:56.270> of<00:08:56.510> five
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point six five gives a tail area of five
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point six five gives a tail area of five
percent<00:08:57.380> we<00:08:58.130> have<00:08:58.810> minus<00:08:59.810> one<00:08:59.990> point<00:09:00.230> six<00:09:00.589> five
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percent we have minus one point six five
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percent we have minus one point six five
equals<00:09:02.300> x<00:09:03.170> minus<00:09:04.100> 200<00:09:04.700> over<00:09:05.150> thirty<00:09:07.420> minus
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equals x minus 200 over thirty minus
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equals x minus 200 over thirty minus
forty<00:09:09.440> nine<00:09:09.589> point<00:09:09.860> five<00:09:10.190> is<00:09:10.810> therefore<00:09:11.810> X
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forty nine point five is therefore X
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forty nine point five is therefore X
minus<00:09:12.860> 200
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minus 200
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minus 200
x<00:09:15.270> equals<00:09:15.690> a<00:09:16.680> hundred<00:09:17.640> and<00:09:17.730> fifty<00:09:18.120> point<00:09:19.020> five
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x equals a hundred and fifty point five
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x equals a hundred and fifty point five
oh<00:09:20.360> so<00:09:21.360> the<00:09:21.510> store<00:09:21.750> can<00:09:22.020> expect<00:09:22.440> to<00:09:22.650> lose<00:09:22.860> at
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oh so the store can expect to lose at
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oh so the store can expect to lose at
least<00:09:23.880> a<00:09:24.150> hundred<00:09:24.600> and<00:09:24.810> fifty<00:09:25.140> pounds<00:09:25.350> and
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least a hundred and fifty pounds and
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least a hundred and fifty pounds and
fifty<00:09:26.010> pence<00:09:26.220> on<00:09:26.600> 95<00:09:27.600> percent<00:09:27.990> of<00:09:28.080> the<00:09:28.170> days<00:09:31.550> if
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fifty pence on 95 percent of the days if
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fifty pence on 95 percent of the days if
we<00:09:32.730> know<00:09:32.850> the<00:09:33.000> data<00:09:33.150> conforms<00:09:33.750> to<00:09:33.840> a<00:09:33.960> normal
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we know the data conforms to a normal
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we know the data conforms to a normal
distribution<00:09:34.670> and<00:09:35.670> we<00:09:35.730> know<00:09:35.970> the<00:09:36.090> mean<00:09:36.330> and
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distribution and we know the mean and
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distribution and we know the mean and
the<00:09:37.290> standard<00:09:37.320> deviation<00:09:37.730> we<00:09:38.730> can<00:09:38.910> derive
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the standard deviation we can derive
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the standard deviation we can derive
considerable<00:09:40.050> volumes<00:09:40.500> of<00:09:40.680> information
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considerable volumes of information
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considerable volumes of information
about<00:09:41.490> losses<00:09:41.850> in<00:09:42.300> libraries<00:09:43.170> or<00:09:43.470> shops<00:09:44.070> or<00:09:44.550> a
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about losses in libraries or shops or a
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about losses in libraries or shops or a
book<00:09:45.240> store<00:09:45.540> and<00:09:45.810> so<00:09:46.200> on<00:09:46.910> but<00:09:47.910> it's<00:09:48.060> not<00:09:48.390> just
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book store and so on but it's not just
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book store and so on but it's not just
information<00:09:50.040> about<00:09:50.130> losses<00:09:50.840> we<00:09:51.840> can<00:09:52.050> also<00:09:52.230> see
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information about losses we can also see
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information about losses we can also see
many<00:09:53.700> other<00:09:53.850> things<00:09:54.350> the<00:09:55.350> distribution<00:09:56.040> of
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many other things the distribution of
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many other things the distribution of
wealth<00:09:56.400> and<00:09:56.670> income<00:09:57.200> the<00:09:58.200> probability<00:09:59.010> of
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wealth and income the probability of
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wealth and income the probability of
returns<00:09:59.610> for<00:10:00.480> some<00:10:00.690> investment<00:10:01.290> in<00:10:01.380> the<00:10:01.530> stock
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returns for some investment in the stock
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returns for some investment in the stock
market<00:10:02.340> the<00:10:03.210> amount<00:10:03.300> of<00:10:03.630> intelligence<00:10:04.350> that
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market the amount of intelligence that
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market the amount of intelligence that
people<00:10:04.890> have<00:10:05.070> the<00:10:05.520> list<00:10:05.790> is<00:10:06.060> endless<00:10:07.820> the
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people have the list is endless the
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people have the list is endless the
normal<00:10:09.330> distribution<00:10:09.510> then<00:10:10.110> is<00:10:10.350> one<00:10:11.070> of<00:10:11.190> the
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normal distribution then is one of the
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normal distribution then is one of the
most<00:10:11.550> important<00:10:12.210> concepts<00:10:12.810> its<00:10:13.380> statistics
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you