WEBVTT Kind: captions Language: en 00:00:06.400 --> 00:00:08.289 align:start position:0% scientists<00:00:07.400> tell<00:00:07.580> us<00:00:07.610> that<00:00:07.730> the<00:00:07.910> world<00:00:08.120> is 00:00:08.289 --> 00:00:08.299 align:start position:0% scientists tell us that the world is 00:00:08.299 --> 00:00:09.970 align:start position:0% scientists tell us that the world is warming<00:00:08.750> and<00:00:08.990> other<00:00:09.559> there's<00:00:09.829> much 00:00:09.970 --> 00:00:09.980 align:start position:0% warming and other there's much 00:00:09.980 --> 00:00:12.249 align:start position:0% warming and other there's much uncertainty<00:00:10.639> regarding<00:00:10.910> the<00:00:11.360> extent<00:00:11.990> of<00:00:12.110> the 00:00:12.249 --> 00:00:12.259 align:start position:0% uncertainty regarding the extent of the 00:00:12.259 --> 00:00:14.859 align:start position:0% uncertainty regarding the extent of the warming<00:00:12.650> at<00:00:12.829> its<00:00:13.039> consequences<00:00:14.030> there<00:00:14.749> is 00:00:14.859 --> 00:00:14.869 align:start position:0% warming at its consequences there is 00:00:14.869 --> 00:00:16.480 align:start position:0% warming at its consequences there is broad<00:00:15.139> agreement<00:00:15.349> that<00:00:15.919> a<00:00:15.949> warmer<00:00:16.340> climate 00:00:16.480 --> 00:00:16.490 align:start position:0% broad agreement that a warmer climate 00:00:16.490 --> 00:00:19.740 align:start position:0% broad agreement that a warmer climate will<00:00:17.000> affect<00:00:17.330> whether<00:00:17.869> sea<00:00:18.859> levels 00:00:19.740 --> 00:00:19.750 align:start position:0% will affect whether sea levels 00:00:19.750 --> 00:00:22.689 align:start position:0% will affect whether sea levels ecosystems<00:00:20.750> and<00:00:21.109> agriculture<00:00:22.009> clearly<00:00:22.580> is<00:00:22.640> a 00:00:22.689 --> 00:00:22.699 align:start position:0% ecosystems and agriculture clearly is a 00:00:22.699 --> 00:00:24.279 align:start position:0% ecosystems and agriculture clearly is a lot<00:00:22.849> of<00:00:22.910> uncertainty<00:00:23.480> about<00:00:23.570> the<00:00:23.689> future<00:00:23.839> and 00:00:24.279 --> 00:00:24.289 align:start position:0% lot of uncertainty about the future and 00:00:24.289 --> 00:00:27.070 align:start position:0% lot of uncertainty about the future and I<00:00:24.800> suppose<00:00:25.220> the<00:00:25.250> uncertainties<00:00:26.029> come<00:00:26.960> from 00:00:27.070 --> 00:00:27.080 align:start position:0% I suppose the uncertainties come from 00:00:27.080 --> 00:00:29.140 align:start position:0% I suppose the uncertainties come from different<00:00:27.259> things<00:00:27.550> uncertain<00:00:28.550> what<00:00:29.029> the 00:00:29.140 --> 00:00:29.150 align:start position:0% different things uncertain what the 00:00:29.150 --> 00:00:30.609 align:start position:0% different things uncertain what the future<00:00:29.449> concentrations<00:00:29.990> a<00:00:30.050> greenhouse<00:00:30.289> gases 00:00:30.609 --> 00:00:30.619 align:start position:0% future concentrations a greenhouse gases 00:00:30.619 --> 00:00:33.700 align:start position:0% future concentrations a greenhouse gases will<00:00:30.769> be<00:00:30.890> and<00:00:31.130> then<00:00:31.759> it's<00:00:32.090> uncertain<00:00:32.870> how<00:00:33.140> the 00:00:33.700 --> 00:00:33.710 align:start position:0% will be and then it's uncertain how the 00:00:33.710 --> 00:00:35.230 align:start position:0% will be and then it's uncertain how the earth<00:00:33.920> if<00:00:34.250> you<00:00:34.280> like<00:00:34.490> as<00:00:34.640> a<00:00:34.670> system<00:00:35.120> will 00:00:35.230 --> 00:00:35.240 align:start position:0% earth if you like as a system will 00:00:35.240 --> 00:00:38.800 align:start position:0% earth if you like as a system will respond<00:00:35.720> to<00:00:36.230> that<00:00:36.350> warming<00:00:37.360> how<00:00:38.360> do<00:00:38.420> we<00:00:38.630> make 00:00:38.800 --> 00:00:38.810 align:start position:0% respond to that warming how do we make 00:00:38.810 --> 00:00:40.900 align:start position:0% respond to that warming how do we make decisions<00:00:38.960> about<00:00:39.470> our<00:00:39.620> environment<00:00:39.920> when 00:00:40.900 --> 00:00:40.910 align:start position:0% decisions about our environment when 00:00:40.910 --> 00:00:43.600 align:start position:0% decisions about our environment when there's<00:00:41.090> so<00:00:41.270> much<00:00:41.390> uncertainty<00:00:42.610> climate 00:00:43.600 --> 00:00:43.610 align:start position:0% there's so much uncertainty climate 00:00:43.610 --> 00:00:45.400 align:start position:0% there's so much uncertainty climate change<00:00:43.850> science<00:00:44.330> offers<00:00:44.630> us<00:00:44.750> no<00:00:45.020> simple 00:00:45.400 --> 00:00:45.410 align:start position:0% change science offers us no simple 00:00:45.410 --> 00:00:48.970 align:start position:0% change science offers us no simple answers<00:00:45.850> however<00:00:46.850> using<00:00:47.480> statistics<00:00:48.230> we<00:00:48.800> can 00:00:48.970 --> 00:00:48.980 align:start position:0% answers however using statistics we can 00:00:48.980 --> 00:00:50.980 align:start position:0% answers however using statistics we can build<00:00:49.220> upon<00:00:49.610> our<00:00:49.640> assumptions<00:00:50.330> using 00:00:50.980 --> 00:00:50.990 align:start position:0% build upon our assumptions using 00:00:50.990 --> 00:00:53.320 align:start position:0% build upon our assumptions using rational<00:00:51.260> methodologies<00:00:52.250> to<00:00:52.400> arrive<00:00:53.120> at 00:00:53.320 --> 00:00:53.330 align:start position:0% rational methodologies to arrive at 00:00:53.330 --> 00:00:55.900 align:start position:0% rational methodologies to arrive at meaningful<00:00:53.930> recommendations<00:00:54.910> climate 00:00:55.900 --> 00:00:55.910 align:start position:0% meaningful recommendations climate 00:00:55.910 --> 00:00:58.840 align:start position:0% meaningful recommendations climate change<00:00:56.150> has<00:00:56.270> been<00:00:56.330> happening<00:00:56.930> for<00:00:57.230> eons<00:00:57.820> so<00:00:58.820> I 00:00:58.840 --> 00:00:58.850 align:start position:0% change has been happening for eons so I 00:00:58.850 --> 00:01:01.450 align:start position:0% change has been happening for eons so I think<00:00:59.000> the<00:00:59.600> question<00:01:00.410> that<00:01:00.440> society<00:01:01.100> probably 00:01:01.450 --> 00:01:01.460 align:start position:0% think the question that society probably 00:01:01.460 --> 00:01:03.400 align:start position:0% think the question that society probably cares<00:01:01.670> about<00:01:01.910> is<00:01:02.090> whether<00:01:02.270> climate<00:01:03.050> change 00:01:03.400 --> 00:01:03.410 align:start position:0% cares about is whether climate change 00:01:03.410 --> 00:01:05.650 align:start position:0% cares about is whether climate change caused<00:01:03.770> by<00:01:04.189> emitting<00:01:04.580> greenhouse<00:01:04.759> gases<00:01:05.480> is 00:01:05.650 --> 00:01:05.660 align:start position:0% caused by emitting greenhouse gases is 00:01:05.660 --> 00:01:07.840 align:start position:0% caused by emitting greenhouse gases is real<00:01:05.840> there's<00:01:06.740> been<00:01:06.950> a<00:01:07.010> lot<00:01:07.250> of<00:01:07.280> research<00:01:07.670> in 00:01:07.840 --> 00:01:07.850 align:start position:0% real there's been a lot of research in 00:01:07.850 --> 00:01:10.630 align:start position:0% real there's been a lot of research in the<00:01:07.940> last<00:01:08.180> two<00:01:08.900> decades<00:01:09.110> that's<00:01:09.710> really<00:01:10.070> been 00:01:10.630 --> 00:01:10.640 align:start position:0% the last two decades that's really been 00:01:10.640 --> 00:01:12.400 align:start position:0% the last two decades that's really been able<00:01:10.820> to<00:01:11.030> say<00:01:11.210> pretty<00:01:11.510> definitively<00:01:12.200> that 00:01:12.400 --> 00:01:12.410 align:start position:0% able to say pretty definitively that 00:01:12.410 --> 00:01:15.700 align:start position:0% able to say pretty definitively that humans<00:01:13.400> are<00:01:13.610> contributing<00:01:13.910> to<00:01:14.390> the<00:01:15.350> climate 00:01:15.700 --> 00:01:15.710 align:start position:0% humans are contributing to the climate 00:01:15.710 --> 00:01:19.020 align:start position:0% humans are contributing to the climate change<00:01:15.980> that<00:01:16.250> we're<00:01:16.430> experiencing<00:01:17.060> today 00:01:19.020 --> 00:01:19.030 align:start position:0% change that we're experiencing today 00:01:19.030 --> 00:01:22.120 align:start position:0% change that we're experiencing today marketers<00:01:20.030> is<00:01:20.659> one<00:01:21.110> of<00:01:21.230> many<00:01:21.409> scientists 00:01:22.120 --> 00:01:22.130 align:start position:0% marketers is one of many scientists 00:01:22.130 --> 00:01:23.950 align:start position:0% marketers is one of many scientists documenting<00:01:22.760> changes<00:01:23.000> in<00:01:23.390> our<00:01:23.480> planet's 00:01:23.950 --> 00:01:23.960 align:start position:0% documenting changes in our planet's 00:01:23.960 --> 00:01:27.120 align:start position:0% documenting changes in our planet's climate<00:01:24.200> and<00:01:24.680> its<00:01:25.070> effect<00:01:25.430> on<00:01:25.550> ecosystems 00:01:27.120 --> 00:01:27.130 align:start position:0% climate and its effect on ecosystems 00:01:27.130 --> 00:01:29.539 align:start position:0% climate and its effect on ecosystems climate<00:01:27.939> change<00:01:27.969> is<00:01:28.390> not<00:01:28.659> a<00:01:28.689> new<00:01:28.990> phenomenon 00:01:29.539 --> 00:01:29.549 align:start position:0% climate change is not a new phenomenon 00:01:29.549 --> 00:01:32.789 align:start position:0% climate change is not a new phenomenon but<00:01:30.549> what<00:01:30.850> is<00:01:31.060> new<00:01:31.390> is<00:01:31.810> the<00:01:31.990> rate<00:01:32.530> at<00:01:32.560> which 00:01:32.789 --> 00:01:32.799 align:start position:0% but what is new is the rate at which 00:01:32.799 --> 00:01:35.190 align:start position:0% but what is new is the rate at which it's<00:01:33.130> changing<00:01:33.850> you<00:01:34.630> know<00:01:34.659> you<00:01:34.780> think<00:01:35.020> of<00:01:35.079> the 00:01:35.190 --> 00:01:35.200 align:start position:0% it's changing you know you think of the 00:01:35.200 --> 00:01:37.529 align:start position:0% it's changing you know you think of the difference<00:01:35.350> between<00:01:35.740> a<00:01:36.280> slowly<00:01:36.820> rising<00:01:37.299> tide 00:01:37.529 --> 00:01:37.539 align:start position:0% difference between a slowly rising tide 00:01:37.539 --> 00:01:40.289 align:start position:0% difference between a slowly rising tide and<00:01:37.810> a<00:01:37.899> tsunami<00:01:38.110> right<00:01:39.039> and<00:01:39.280> that's<00:01:39.970> sort<00:01:40.210> of 00:01:40.289 --> 00:01:40.299 align:start position:0% and a tsunami right and that's sort of 00:01:40.299 --> 00:01:42.389 align:start position:0% and a tsunami right and that's sort of the<00:01:40.360> difference<00:01:40.780> between<00:01:40.960> maybe<00:01:41.439> climate 00:01:42.389 --> 00:01:42.399 align:start position:0% the difference between maybe climate 00:01:42.399 --> 00:01:44.460 align:start position:0% the difference between maybe climate change<00:01:42.670> under<00:01:43.420> natural<00:01:43.630> historical 00:01:44.460 --> 00:01:44.470 align:start position:0% change under natural historical 00:01:44.470 --> 00:01:46.679 align:start position:0% change under natural historical conditions<00:01:44.679> and<00:01:45.130> climate<00:01:45.460> change<00:01:45.729> that<00:01:46.569> we're 00:01:46.679 --> 00:01:46.689 align:start position:0% conditions and climate change that we're 00:01:46.689 --> 00:01:48.899 align:start position:0% conditions and climate change that we're projecting<00:01:47.200> over<00:01:47.770> the<00:01:47.860> coming<00:01:48.069> decades<00:01:48.700> and 00:01:48.899 --> 00:01:48.909 align:start position:0% projecting over the coming decades and 00:01:48.909 --> 00:01:52.350 align:start position:0% projecting over the coming decades and centuries<00:01:50.250> climate<00:01:51.250> change<00:01:51.280> is<00:01:51.610> most<00:01:51.880> visible 00:01:52.350 --> 00:01:52.360 align:start position:0% centuries climate change is most visible 00:01:52.360 --> 00:01:55.050 align:start position:0% centuries climate change is most visible where<00:01:52.539> water<00:01:52.810> meets<00:01:53.229> ice<00:01:53.610> this<00:01:54.610> is<00:01:54.850> where<00:01:55.030> a 00:01:55.050 --> 00:01:55.060 align:start position:0% where water meets ice this is where a 00:01:55.060 --> 00:01:57.330 align:start position:0% where water meets ice this is where a small<00:01:55.360> change<00:01:55.899> in<00:01:56.079> temperature<00:01:56.619> has<00:01:56.799> the 00:01:57.330 --> 00:01:57.340 align:start position:0% small change in temperature has the 00:01:57.340 --> 00:01:59.490 align:start position:0% small change in temperature has the biggest<00:01:57.579> effect<00:01:58.090> we<00:01:58.780> see<00:01:58.990> a<00:01:59.020> lot<00:01:59.229> of<00:01:59.259> evidence 00:01:59.490 --> 00:01:59.500 align:start position:0% biggest effect we see a lot of evidence 00:01:59.500 --> 00:02:00.960 align:start position:0% biggest effect we see a lot of evidence of<00:01:59.860> climate<00:02:00.039> change<00:02:00.220> in<00:02:00.610> these<00:02:00.729> cold 00:02:00.960 --> 00:02:00.970 align:start position:0% of climate change in these cold 00:02:00.970 --> 00:02:02.580 align:start position:0% of climate change in these cold environments<00:02:01.599> and<00:02:01.689> we've<00:02:01.840> seen<00:02:02.049> it<00:02:02.200> early 00:02:02.580 --> 00:02:02.590 align:start position:0% environments and we've seen it early 00:02:02.590 --> 00:02:04.199 align:start position:0% environments and we've seen it early there<00:02:02.799> and<00:02:03.069> we've<00:02:03.250> seen<00:02:03.490> it<00:02:03.640> very<00:02:03.849> strongly 00:02:04.199 --> 00:02:04.209 align:start position:0% there and we've seen it very strongly 00:02:04.209 --> 00:02:06.690 align:start position:0% there and we've seen it very strongly there<00:02:04.619> nowhere<00:02:05.619> is<00:02:05.770> this<00:02:05.920> effect<00:02:06.369> more 00:02:06.690 --> 00:02:06.700 align:start position:0% there nowhere is this effect more 00:02:06.700 --> 00:02:09.139 align:start position:0% there nowhere is this effect more visible<00:02:07.270> than<00:02:07.450> in<00:02:07.959> retreat<00:02:08.349> inglesias 00:02:09.139 --> 00:02:09.149 align:start position:0% visible than in retreat inglesias 00:02:09.149 --> 00:02:11.339 align:start position:0% visible than in retreat inglesias retreating<00:02:10.149> and<00:02:10.330> shrinking<00:02:10.780> glaciers<00:02:10.869> are 00:02:11.339 --> 00:02:11.349 align:start position:0% retreating and shrinking glaciers are 00:02:11.349 --> 00:02:13.770 align:start position:0% retreating and shrinking glaciers are the<00:02:11.560> single<00:02:11.920> most<00:02:12.130> tangible<00:02:12.970> evidence<00:02:13.390> of 00:02:13.770 --> 00:02:13.780 align:start position:0% the single most tangible evidence of 00:02:13.780 --> 00:02:15.330 align:start position:0% the single most tangible evidence of climate<00:02:13.989> change<00:02:14.200> in<00:02:14.530> the<00:02:14.620> world<00:02:14.799> today<00:02:15.010> and 00:02:15.330 --> 00:02:15.340 align:start position:0% climate change in the world today and 00:02:15.340 --> 00:02:19.170 align:start position:0% climate change in the world today and that's<00:02:15.459> what<00:02:15.760> our<00:02:15.790> cameras<00:02:16.239> are<00:02:16.330> capturing<00:02:18.180> we 00:02:19.170 --> 00:02:19.180 align:start position:0% that's what our cameras are capturing we 00:02:19.180 --> 00:02:21.300 align:start position:0% that's what our cameras are capturing we have<00:02:19.360> cameras<00:02:19.750> in<00:02:19.780> Alaska<00:02:20.410> in<00:02:20.560> the<00:02:20.620> Rockies<00:02:21.099> in 00:02:21.300 --> 00:02:21.310 align:start position:0% have cameras in Alaska in the Rockies in 00:02:21.310 --> 00:02:22.920 align:start position:0% have cameras in Alaska in the Rockies in Greenland<00:02:21.730> and<00:02:21.849> Iceland<00:02:22.299> we've<00:02:22.750> been 00:02:22.920 --> 00:02:22.930 align:start position:0% Greenland and Iceland we've been 00:02:22.930 --> 00:02:24.960 align:start position:0% Greenland and Iceland we've been watching<00:02:23.110> glaciers<00:02:23.680> in<00:02:23.920> the<00:02:24.220> Alps<00:02:24.549> and<00:02:24.760> in 00:02:24.960 --> 00:02:24.970 align:start position:0% watching glaciers in the Alps and in 00:02:24.970 --> 00:02:27.990 align:start position:0% watching glaciers in the Alps and in Bolivia<00:02:25.390> and<00:02:25.630> so<00:02:26.530> we're<00:02:26.769> seeing<00:02:27.069> the<00:02:27.730> same 00:02:27.990 --> 00:02:28.000 align:start position:0% Bolivia and so we're seeing the same 00:02:28.000 --> 00:02:30.600 align:start position:0% Bolivia and so we're seeing the same story<00:02:28.480> everywhere<00:02:29.040> ninety-five<00:02:30.040> percent<00:02:30.280> of 00:02:30.600 --> 00:02:30.610 align:start position:0% story everywhere ninety-five percent of 00:02:30.610 --> 00:02:32.130 align:start position:0% story everywhere ninety-five percent of the<00:02:30.670> glaciers<00:02:31.030> in<00:02:31.239> the<00:02:31.329> world<00:02:31.510> outside 00:02:32.130 --> 00:02:32.140 align:start position:0% the glaciers in the world outside 00:02:32.140 --> 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levels have been rising at one point two millimeters<00:02:50.239> per<00:02:50.269> year<00:02:50.480> since<00:02:51.140> the<00:02:51.290> 1930s<00:02:51.650> in 00:02:52.180 --> 00:02:52.190 align:start position:0% millimeters per year since the 1930s in 00:02:52.190 --> 00:02:54.070 align:start position:0% millimeters per year since the 1930s in fact<00:02:52.400> the<00:02:52.519> last<00:02:52.730> two<00:02:53.269> decades<00:02:53.480> they've<00:02:53.959> been 00:02:54.070 --> 00:02:54.080 align:start position:0% fact the last two decades they've been 00:02:54.080 --> 00:02:56.380 align:start position:0% fact the last two decades they've been rising<00:02:54.290> rather<00:02:54.980> more<00:02:55.220> rapidly<00:02:55.640> than<00:02:55.760> that<00:02:56.060> but 00:02:56.380 --> 00:02:56.390 align:start position:0% rising rather more rapidly than that but 00:02:56.390 --> 00:02:58.660 align:start position:0% rising rather more rapidly than that but we<00:02:56.480> do<00:02:56.630> see<00:02:56.840> a<00:02:56.870> definite<00:02:57.230> rising<00:02:57.709> trend<00:02:57.980> in<00:02:58.220> sea 00:02:58.660 --> 00:02:58.670 align:start position:0% we do see a definite rising trend in sea 00:02:58.670 --> 00:03:00.490 align:start position:0% we do see a definite rising trend in sea level<00:02:58.910> here<00:02:59.120> in<00:02:59.239> Southampton<00:02:59.420> and<00:02:59.930> we<00:03:00.260> see 00:03:00.490 --> 00:03:00.500 align:start position:0% level here in Southampton and we see 00:03:00.500 --> 00:03:03.339 align:start position:0% level here in Southampton and we see rising<00:03:00.739> sea<00:03:01.040> levels<00:03:01.340> around<00:03:01.610> most<00:03:02.150> of<00:03:02.540> the<00:03:02.630> UK 00:03:03.339 --> 00:03:03.349 align:start position:0% rising sea levels around most of the UK 00:03:03.349 --> 00:03:05.170 align:start position:0% rising sea levels around most of the UK and<00:03:03.680> the<00:03:03.739> explanation<00:03:04.310> for<00:03:04.760> that<00:03:04.790> is<00:03:05.000> that<00:03:05.090> the 00:03:05.170 --> 00:03:05.180 align:start position:0% and the explanation for that is that the 00:03:05.180 --> 00:03:07.270 align:start position:0% and the explanation for that is that the ocean<00:03:05.269> volume<00:03:05.900> is<00:03:06.230> growing<00:03:06.830> and<00:03:07.010> the<00:03:07.069> way<00:03:07.220> to 00:03:07.270 --> 00:03:07.280 align:start position:0% ocean volume is growing and the way to 00:03:07.280 --> 00:03:10.089 align:start position:0% ocean volume is growing and the way to explain<00:03:07.760> that<00:03:08.000> is<00:03:08.299> that<00:03:08.750> the<00:03:09.500> oceans<00:03:09.980> are 00:03:10.089 --> 00:03:10.099 align:start position:0% explain that is that the oceans are 00:03:10.099 --> 00:03:12.130 align:start position:0% explain that is that the oceans are expanding<00:03:10.670> as<00:03:10.790> they<00:03:10.910> warm<00:03:11.209> and<00:03:11.420> also<00:03:11.959> that 00:03:12.130 --> 00:03:12.140 align:start position:0% expanding as they warm and also that 00:03:12.140 --> 00:03:13.990 align:start position:0% expanding as they warm and also that land-based<00:03:12.530> ice<00:03:12.799> is<00:03:13.040> melting<00:03:13.489> and<00:03:13.610> flowing 00:03:13.990 --> 00:03:14.000 align:start position:0% land-based ice is melting and flowing 00:03:14.000 --> 00:03:15.610 align:start position:0% land-based ice is melting and flowing into<00:03:14.180> the<00:03:14.390> sea<00:03:14.599> and<00:03:14.840> increasing<00:03:15.410> the<00:03:15.470> volume 00:03:15.610 --> 00:03:15.620 align:start position:0% into the sea and increasing the volume 00:03:15.620 --> 00:03:21.610 align:start position:0% into the sea and increasing the volume of<00:03:15.860> the<00:03:15.950> ocean<00:03:19.239> how<00:03:20.239> much<00:03:20.660> will<00:03:20.989> the<00:03:21.140> sea<00:03:21.319> level 00:03:21.610 --> 00:03:21.620 align:start position:0% of the ocean how much will the sea level 00:03:21.620 --> 00:03:25.270 align:start position:0% of the ocean how much will the sea level rise<00:03:22.480> the<00:03:23.480> estimates<00:03:23.930> vary<00:03:24.019> but<00:03:24.590> it<00:03:24.799> could<00:03:25.099> be 00:03:25.270 --> 00:03:25.280 align:start position:0% rise the estimates vary but it could be 00:03:25.280 --> 00:03:29.020 align:start position:0% rise the estimates vary but it could be as<00:03:25.430> little<00:03:25.670> as<00:03:25.970> half<00:03:26.599> a<00:03:26.840> meter<00:03:27.610> but<00:03:28.610> it<00:03:28.700> could 00:03:29.020 --> 00:03:29.030 align:start position:0% as little as half a meter but it could 00:03:29.030 --> 00:03:31.240 align:start position:0% as little as half a meter but it could be<00:03:29.299> that<00:03:30.019> if<00:03:30.140> the<00:03:30.290> whole<00:03:30.530> of<00:03:30.739> the<00:03:30.860> polar<00:03:31.130> ice 00:03:31.240 --> 00:03:31.250 align:start position:0% be that if the whole of the polar ice 00:03:31.250 --> 00:03:33.699 align:start position:0% be that if the whole of the polar ice cap<00:03:31.700> melts<00:03:32.150> the<00:03:32.720> water<00:03:32.989> could<00:03:33.319> be<00:03:33.470> lapping 00:03:33.699 --> 00:03:33.709 align:start position:0% cap melts the water could be lapping 00:03:33.709 --> 00:03:35.949 align:start position:0% cap melts the water could be lapping around<00:03:34.220> on<00:03:34.430> the<00:03:35.000> road<00:03:35.209> of<00:03:35.390> the<00:03:35.420> Golden<00:03:35.810> Gate 00:03:35.949 --> 00:03:35.959 align:start position:0% around on the road of the Golden Gate 00:03:35.959 --> 00:03:39.380 align:start position:0% around on the road of the Golden Gate Bridge 00:03:39.380 --> 00:03:39.390 align:start position:0% 00:03:39.390 --> 00:03:41.450 align:start position:0% but<00:03:39.960> studying<00:03:40.319> the<00:03:40.560> visible<00:03:40.980> effects<00:03:41.280> of 00:03:41.450 --> 00:03:41.460 align:start position:0% but studying the visible effects of 00:03:41.460 --> 00:03:43.550 align:start position:0% but studying the visible effects of climate<00:03:41.580> change<00:03:41.910> are<00:03:42.510> only<00:03:43.020> part<00:03:43.350> of<00:03:43.500> the 00:03:43.550 --> 00:03:43.560 align:start position:0% climate change are only part of the 00:03:43.560 --> 00:03:46.790 align:start position:0% climate change are only part of the story<00:03:44.660> many<00:03:45.660> scientists<00:03:46.319> are<00:03:46.410> trying<00:03:46.620> to 00:03:46.790 --> 00:03:46.800 align:start position:0% story many scientists are trying to 00:03:46.800 --> 00:03:49.070 align:start position:0% story many scientists are trying to understand<00:03:47.280> how<00:03:47.459> a<00:03:47.490> changing<00:03:48.120> climate<00:03:48.150> will 00:03:49.070 --> 00:03:49.080 align:start position:0% understand how a changing climate will 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forest<00:03:59.940> gives<00:04:00.120> way<00:04:00.270> to<00:04:00.420> a<00:04:00.600> community<00:04:01.170> of 00:04:01.190 --> 00:04:01.200 align:start position:0% forest gives way to a community of 00:04:01.200 --> 00:04:04.430 align:start position:0% forest gives way to a community of plants<00:04:01.860> that<00:04:02.040> makes<00:04:02.910> up<00:04:03.090> alpine<00:04:03.510> tundra<00:04:03.840> what 00:04:04.430 --> 00:04:04.440 align:start position:0% plants that makes up alpine tundra what 00:04:04.440 --> 00:04:06.590 align:start position:0% plants that makes up alpine tundra what we're<00:04:04.620> really<00:04:04.770> interested<00:04:05.190> in<00:04:05.580> is<00:04:05.790> how<00:04:06.540> the 00:04:06.590 --> 00:04:06.600 align:start position:0% we're really interested in is how the 00:04:06.600 --> 00:04:08.660 align:start position:0% we're really interested in is how the overall<00:04:07.140> landscape<00:04:07.440> is<00:04:07.920> going<00:04:08.130> to<00:04:08.220> change<00:04:08.489> and 00:04:08.660 --> 00:04:08.670 align:start position:0% overall landscape is going to change and 00:04:08.670 --> 00:04:11.360 align:start position:0% overall landscape is going to change and with<00:04:09.180> warming<00:04:09.540> temperatures<00:04:09.980> we<00:04:10.980> think<00:04:11.280> that 00:04:11.360 --> 00:04:11.370 align:start position:0% with warming temperatures we think that 00:04:11.370 --> 00:04:14.390 align:start position:0% with warming temperatures we think that they<00:04:12.030> may<00:04:12.209> be<00:04:12.270> forced<00:04:12.810> to<00:04:13.350> move<00:04:13.500> upward<00:04:14.130> and 00:04:14.390 --> 00:04:14.400 align:start position:0% they may be forced to move upward and 00:04:14.400 --> 00:04:16.250 align:start position:0% they may be forced to move upward and elevation<00:04:14.940> but<00:04:15.480> we're<00:04:15.630> at<00:04:15.720> the<00:04:15.810> top<00:04:16.019> of<00:04:16.049> the 00:04:16.250 --> 00:04:16.260 align:start position:0% elevation but we're at the top of the 00:04:16.260 --> 00:04:18.349 align:start position:0% elevation but we're at the top of the mountain<00:04:16.380> nearly<00:04:16.950> a<00:04:17.070> number<00:04:17.669> of<00:04:17.760> people<00:04:18.120> have 00:04:18.349 --> 00:04:18.359 align:start position:0% mountain nearly a number of people have 00:04:18.359 --> 00:04:20.449 align:start position:0% mountain nearly a number of people have developed<00:04:18.510> computer<00:04:19.230> models<00:04:19.590> that<00:04:20.040> predict 00:04:20.449 --> 00:04:20.459 align:start position:0% developed computer models that predict 00:04:20.459 --> 00:04:22.039 align:start position:0% developed computer models that predict that<00:04:20.669> a<00:04:20.730> lot<00:04:20.940> of<00:04:21.060> these<00:04:21.180> species<00:04:21.510> that<00:04:21.989> are 00:04:22.039 --> 00:04:22.049 align:start position:0% that a lot of these species that are 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their<00:04:30.600> habitat<00:04:31.110> might<00:04:31.320> be<00:04:31.470> pushed<00:04:31.770> sort<00:04:32.130> of<00:04:32.190> up 00:04:32.330 --> 00:04:32.340 align:start position:0% their habitat might be pushed sort of up 00:04:32.340 --> 00:04:34.610 align:start position:0% their habitat might be pushed sort of up and<00:04:32.610> off<00:04:32.700> the<00:04:32.880> tops<00:04:33.120> of<00:04:33.330> the<00:04:33.450> mountains<00:04:33.570> and<00:04:33.990> so 00:04:34.610 --> 00:04:34.620 align:start position:0% and off the tops of the mountains and so 00:04:34.620 --> 00:04:37.760 align:start position:0% and off the tops of the mountains and so we're<00:04:35.460> experimentally<00:04:36.390> essentially<00:04:37.260> testing 00:04:37.760 --> 00:04:37.770 align:start position:0% we're experimentally essentially testing 00:04:37.770 --> 00:04:39.230 align:start position:0% we're experimentally essentially testing some<00:04:37.980> of<00:04:38.100> those<00:04:38.190> models<00:04:38.669> that<00:04:38.730> people<00:04:39.120> have 00:04:39.230 --> 00:04:39.240 align:start position:0% some of those models that people have 00:04:39.240 --> 00:04:42.290 align:start position:0% some of those models that people have developed<00:04:39.830> Larry<00:04:40.830> Cooper's<00:04:41.340> researchers<00:04:42.060> are 00:04:42.290 --> 00:04:42.300 align:start position:0% developed Larry Cooper's researchers are 00:04:42.300 --> 00:04:44.750 align:start position:0% developed Larry Cooper's researchers are heating<00:04:42.960> small<00:04:43.290> plots<00:04:43.680> of<00:04:43.919> seedlings<00:04:44.490> through 00:04:44.750 --> 00:04:44.760 align:start position:0% heating small plots of seedlings through 00:04:44.760 --> 00:04:47.210 align:start position:0% heating small plots of seedlings through the<00:04:44.910> winter<00:04:45.240> and<00:04:45.390> summer<00:04:45.660> to<00:04:46.100> document<00:04:47.100> the 00:04:47.210 --> 00:04:47.220 align:start position:0% the winter and summer to document the 00:04:47.220 --> 00:04:49.280 align:start position:0% the winter and summer to document the effect<00:04:47.520> of<00:04:47.700> future<00:04:48.150> temperature<00:04:48.630> changes<00:04:49.110> on 00:04:49.280 --> 00:04:49.290 align:start position:0% effect of future temperature changes on 00:04:49.290 --> 00:04:53.450 align:start position:0% effect of future temperature changes on pine<00:04:50.040> tree<00:04:50.340> germination<00:04:50.880> and<00:04:51.150> growth<00:04:52.130> so<00:04:53.130> the 00:04:53.450 --> 00:04:53.460 align:start position:0% pine tree germination and growth so the 00:04:53.460 --> 00:04:57.260 align:start position:0% pine tree germination and growth so the infrared<00:04:53.880> heaters<00:04:54.300> here<00:04:55.169> are<00:04:56.150> causing<00:04:57.150> the 00:04:57.260 --> 00:04:57.270 align:start position:0% infrared heaters here are causing the 00:04:57.270 --> 00:04:59.810 align:start position:0% infrared heaters here are causing the snow<00:04:57.600> to<00:04:58.380> melt<00:04:58.500> earlier<00:04:58.979> there<00:04:59.430> are<00:04:59.580> plots 00:04:59.810 --> 00:04:59.820 align:start position:0% snow to melt earlier there are plots 00:04:59.820 --> 00:05:02.450 align:start position:0% snow to melt earlier there are plots right<00:05:00.330> nearby<00:05:00.570> around<00:05:01.260> this<00:05:01.440> one<00:05:01.680> that<00:05:02.250> don't 00:05:02.450 --> 00:05:02.460 align:start position:0% right nearby around this one that don't 00:05:02.460 --> 00:05:04.670 align:start position:0% right nearby around this one that don't have<00:05:02.669> infrared<00:05:03.030> heater<00:05:03.330> arrays<00:05:03.660> and<00:05:03.930> they're 00:05:04.670 --> 00:05:04.680 align:start position:0% have infrared heater arrays and they're 00:05:04.680 --> 00:05:06.740 align:start position:0% have infrared heater arrays and they're still<00:05:04.979> covered<00:05:05.310> in<00:05:05.370> snow<00:05:05.729> if<00:05:06.000> they<00:05:06.479> had<00:05:06.630> the 00:05:06.740 --> 00:05:06.750 align:start position:0% still covered in snow if they had the 00:05:06.750 --> 00:05:08.270 align:start position:0% still covered in snow if they had the heater<00:05:06.870> raised<00:05:07.169> they'd<00:05:07.440> also<00:05:07.590> be<00:05:07.830> melted<00:05:08.160> out 00:05:08.270 --> 00:05:08.280 align:start position:0% heater raised they'd also be melted out 00:05:08.280 --> 00:05:09.500 align:start position:0% heater raised they'd also be melted out but<00:05:08.460> because<00:05:08.729> they<00:05:08.880> don't<00:05:09.120> they're<00:05:09.330> still 00:05:09.500 --> 00:05:09.510 align:start position:0% but because they don't they're still 00:05:09.510 --> 00:05:12.770 align:start position:0% but because they don't they're still covered<00:05:10.700> basically<00:05:11.700> we've<00:05:12.060> sown<00:05:12.330> these<00:05:12.479> seeds 00:05:12.770 --> 00:05:12.780 align:start position:0% covered basically we've sown these seeds 00:05:12.780 --> 00:05:15.590 align:start position:0% covered basically we've sown these seeds into<00:05:13.050> these<00:05:13.380> garden<00:05:13.860> plots<00:05:14.310> and<00:05:14.610> some<00:05:15.419> of<00:05:15.510> the 00:05:15.590 --> 00:05:15.600 align:start position:0% into these garden plots and some of the 00:05:15.600 --> 00:05:17.659 align:start position:0% into these garden plots and some of the plots<00:05:15.840> were<00:05:16.560> experimentally<00:05:16.860> warming<00:05:17.550> with 00:05:17.659 --> 00:05:17.669 align:start position:0% plots were experimentally warming with 00:05:17.669 --> 00:05:20.630 align:start position:0% plots were experimentally warming with these<00:05:17.850> overhead<00:05:18.270> heater<00:05:18.510> arrays<00:05:18.870> and<00:05:19.640> others 00:05:20.630 --> 00:05:20.640 align:start position:0% these overhead heater arrays and others 00:05:20.640 --> 00:05:23.450 align:start position:0% these overhead heater arrays and others were<00:05:21.120> just<00:05:21.360> leaving<00:05:21.680> to<00:05:22.680> be<00:05:22.950> what<00:05:23.310> we<00:05:23.430> call 00:05:23.450 --> 00:05:23.460 align:start position:0% were just leaving to be what we call 00:05:23.460 --> 00:05:25.610 align:start position:0% were just leaving to be what we call control<00:05:23.970> plots<00:05:24.150> to<00:05:24.810> get<00:05:24.960> out<00:05:25.080> the<00:05:25.229> key 00:05:25.610 --> 00:05:25.620 align:start position:0% control plots to get out the key 00:05:25.620 --> 00:05:28.940 align:start position:0% control plots to get out the key question<00:05:26.160> of<00:05:26.400> whether<00:05:27.320> climate<00:05:28.320> change<00:05:28.770> is 00:05:28.940 --> 00:05:28.950 align:start position:0% question of whether climate change is 00:05:28.950 --> 00:05:31.670 align:start position:0% question of whether climate change is going<00:05:29.190> to<00:05:29.250> going<00:05:29.729> to<00:05:29.850> affect<00:05:30.810> the<00:05:31.020> ability<00:05:31.110> of 00:05:31.670 --> 00:05:31.680 align:start position:0% going to going to affect the ability of 00:05:31.680 --> 00:05:34.279 align:start position:0% going to going to affect the ability of tree<00:05:32.220> species<00:05:32.460> to<00:05:33.090> get<00:05:33.479> established<00:05:33.780> in<00:05:34.260> the 00:05:34.279 --> 00:05:34.289 align:start position:0% tree species to get established in the 00:05:34.289 --> 00:05:35.810 align:start position:0% tree species to get established in the tree<00:05:34.560> line 00:05:35.810 --> 00:05:35.820 align:start position:0% tree line 00:05:35.820 --> 00:05:37.820 align:start position:0% tree line but<00:05:36.660> there<00:05:36.840> are<00:05:36.870> some<00:05:37.080> really<00:05:37.320> healthy 00:05:37.820 --> 00:05:37.830 align:start position:0% but there are some really healthy 00:05:37.830 --> 00:05:40.070 align:start position:0% but there are some really healthy seedlings<00:05:38.250> in<00:05:38.460> here<00:05:39.000> that<00:05:39.480> have<00:05:39.660> survived 00:05:40.070 --> 00:05:40.080 align:start position:0% seedlings in here that have survived 00:05:40.080 --> 00:05:42.620 align:start position:0% seedlings in here that have survived over<00:05:40.710> the<00:05:41.070> winter<00:05:41.400> they<00:05:41.850> germinated<00:05:42.420> last 00:05:42.620 --> 00:05:42.630 align:start position:0% over the winter they germinated last 00:05:42.630 --> 00:05:46.100 align:start position:0% over the winter they germinated last year<00:05:42.960> and<00:05:43.370> so<00:05:44.370> it's<00:05:44.730> not<00:05:44.880> surprising<00:05:45.090> you<00:05:45.990> know 00:05:46.100 --> 00:05:46.110 align:start position:0% year and so it's not surprising you know 00:05:46.110 --> 00:05:48.350 align:start position:0% year and so it's not surprising you know that<00:05:46.290> if<00:05:46.380> you<00:05:46.410> sow<00:05:46.740> a<00:05:46.770> seed<00:05:47.130> the<00:05:47.910> plant<00:05:48.180> will 00:05:48.350 --> 00:05:48.360 align:start position:0% that if you sow a seed the plant will 00:05:48.360 --> 00:05:51.260 align:start position:0% that if you sow a seed the plant will grow<00:05:49.310> the<00:05:50.310> question<00:05:50.670> is<00:05:50.820> how<00:05:51.030> are<00:05:51.180> the 00:05:51.260 --> 00:05:51.270 align:start position:0% grow the question is how are the 00:05:51.270 --> 00:05:53.510 align:start position:0% grow the question is how are the probabilities<00:05:51.720> changing<00:05:52.590> across<00:05:52.950> the<00:05:53.250> sites 00:05:53.510 --> 00:05:53.520 align:start position:0% probabilities changing across the sites 00:05:53.520 --> 00:05:59.330 align:start position:0% probabilities changing across the sites and<00:05:53.760> with<00:05:54.390> the<00:05:54.710> with<00:05:55.710> a<00:05:55.740> warming<00:05:56.160> climate<00:05:58.340> one 00:05:59.330 --> 00:05:59.340 align:start position:0% and with the with a warming climate one 00:05:59.340 --> 00:06:00.890 align:start position:0% and with the with a warming climate one of<00:05:59.460> the<00:05:59.520> problems<00:05:59.910> for<00:06:00.120> scientists<00:06:00.600> try<00:06:00.840> to 00:06:00.890 --> 00:06:00.900 align:start position:0% of the problems for scientists try to 00:06:00.900 --> 00:06:02.450 align:start position:0% of the problems for scientists try to understand<00:06:01.500> the<00:06:01.620> effects<00:06:01.890> of<00:06:02.040> climate<00:06:02.190> change 00:06:02.450 --> 00:06:02.460 align:start position:0% understand the effects of climate change 00:06:02.460 --> 00:06:05.180 align:start position:0% understand the effects of climate change is<00:06:03.240> that<00:06:03.630> this<00:06:03.870> change<00:06:04.260> occurs<00:06:04.650> over<00:06:04.860> long 00:06:05.180 --> 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in 00:06:14.520 --> 00:06:16.730 align:start position:0% scientist who recently found himself in the<00:06:14.610> center<00:06:14.910> of<00:06:14.940> climate<00:06:15.390> change<00:06:15.660> debate<00:06:15.900> is 00:06:16.730 --> 00:06:16.740 align:start position:0% the center of climate change debate is 00:06:16.740 --> 00:06:20.270 align:start position:0% the center of climate change debate is James<00:06:17.070> Thompson<00:06:18.260> for<00:06:19.260> 20<00:06:19.620> years<00:06:19.890> he's<00:06:20.100> been 00:06:20.270 --> 00:06:20.280 align:start position:0% James Thompson for 20 years he's been 00:06:20.280 --> 00:06:22.850 align:start position:0% James Thompson for 20 years he's been studying<00:06:20.760> a<00:06:20.880> small<00:06:21.180> perennial<00:06:21.810> but<00:06:22.290> blooms<00:06:22.620> at 00:06:22.850 --> 00:06:22.860 align:start position:0% studying a small perennial but blooms at 00:06:22.860 --> 00:06:25.940 align:start position:0% studying a small perennial but blooms at high<00:06:23.040> altitudes<00:06:23.670> high<00:06:24.540> elevations<00:06:25.260> pose<00:06:25.590> some 00:06:25.940 --> 00:06:25.950 align:start position:0% high altitudes high elevations pose some 00:06:25.950 --> 00:06:28.130 align:start position:0% high altitudes high elevations pose some special<00:06:26.850> problems<00:06:27.300> this<00:06:27.480> is<00:06:27.540> where<00:06:27.810> we<00:06:27.930> might 00:06:28.130 --> 00:06:28.140 align:start position:0% special problems this is where we might 00:06:28.140 --> 00:06:33.200 align:start position:0% special problems this is where we might first<00:06:28.680> see<00:06:30.020> things<00:06:31.020> like<00:06:31.370> species<00:06:32.370> doing 00:06:33.200 --> 00:06:33.210 align:start position:0% first see things like species doing 00:06:33.210 --> 00:06:35.180 align:start position:0% first see things like species doing poorly<00:06:33.510> because<00:06:33.810> the<00:06:34.140> situations<00:06:35.040> have 00:06:35.180 --> 00:06:35.190 align:start position:0% poorly because the situations have 00:06:35.190 --> 00:06:38.300 align:start position:0% poorly because the situations have changed<00:06:35.840> essentially<00:06:36.840> I've<00:06:37.680> asked<00:06:38.190> a<00:06:38.280> very 00:06:38.300 --> 00:06:38.310 align:start position:0% changed essentially I've asked a very 00:06:38.310 --> 00:06:41.690 align:start position:0% changed essentially I've asked a very simple<00:06:38.580> question<00:06:38.990> what<00:06:39.990> causes<00:06:40.560> a<00:06:40.770> flower<00:06:41.370> to 00:06:41.690 --> 00:06:41.700 align:start position:0% simple question what causes a flower to 00:06:41.700 --> 00:06:45.290 align:start position:0% simple question what causes a flower to be<00:06:42.510> a<00:06:42.540> success<00:06:43.110> does<00:06:43.500> it<00:06:43.680> get<00:06:44.220> pollinated<00:06:44.640> does 00:06:45.290 --> 00:06:45.300 align:start position:0% be a success does it get pollinated does 00:06:45.300 --> 00:06:47.150 align:start position:0% be a success does it get pollinated does it<00:06:45.420> set<00:06:45.630> a<00:06:45.660> fruit<00:06:45.990> does<00:06:46.290> it<00:06:46.440> make<00:06:46.590> seeds<00:06:46.920> how 00:06:47.150 --> 00:06:47.160 align:start position:0% it set a fruit does it make seeds how 00:06:47.160 --> 00:06:49.730 align:start position:0% it set a fruit does it make seeds how many<00:06:47.340> seeds<00:06:47.640> does<00:06:47.910> it<00:06:48.060> make<00:06:48.560> what<00:06:49.560> he's 00:06:49.730 --> 00:06:49.740 align:start position:0% many seeds does it make what he's 00:06:49.740 --> 00:06:52.040 align:start position:0% many seeds does it make what he's discovered<00:06:50.100> is<00:06:51.030> that<00:06:51.090> as<00:06:51.420> the<00:06:51.570> climate<00:06:51.840> warms 00:06:52.040 --> 00:06:52.050 align:start position:0% discovered is that as the climate warms 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animal<00:07:00.990> to<00:07:01.700> succeed<00:07:02.700> but<00:07:03.450> there<00:07:03.690> is 00:07:03.920 --> 00:07:03.930 align:start position:0% animal to succeed but there is 00:07:03.930 --> 00:07:06.110 align:start position:0% animal to succeed but there is unfortunately<00:07:04.440> a<00:07:04.830> deterioration<00:07:05.670> in<00:07:06.030> the 00:07:06.110 --> 00:07:06.120 align:start position:0% unfortunately a deterioration in the 00:07:06.120 --> 00:07:08.660 align:start position:0% unfortunately a deterioration in the pollination<00:07:06.570> service<00:07:07.110> they're<00:07:07.320> getting<00:07:07.670> the 00:07:08.660 --> 00:07:08.670 align:start position:0% pollination service they're getting the 00:07:08.670 --> 00:07:11.510 align:start position:0% pollination service they're getting the flowering<00:07:09.390> is<00:07:09.570> tending<00:07:10.410> to<00:07:10.590> happen<00:07:10.980> earlier 00:07:11.510 --> 00:07:11.520 align:start position:0% flowering is tending to happen earlier 00:07:11.520 --> 00:07:13.430 align:start position:0% flowering is tending to happen earlier in<00:07:11.730> the<00:07:11.760> spring<00:07:12.000> because<00:07:12.960> the<00:07:13.110> snow<00:07:13.170> is 00:07:13.430 --> 00:07:13.440 align:start position:0% in the spring because the snow is 00:07:13.440 --> 00:07:16.730 align:start position:0% in the spring because the snow is melting<00:07:13.980> faster<00:07:14.580> than<00:07:14.760> it<00:07:14.880> used<00:07:15.060> to<00:07:15.210> and<00:07:15.740> I 00:07:16.730 --> 00:07:16.740 align:start position:0% melting faster than it used to and I 00:07:16.740 --> 00:07:18.920 align:start position:0% melting faster than it used to and I think<00:07:16.980> this<00:07:17.130> is<00:07:17.190> some<00:07:17.760> manifestation<00:07:18.180> of<00:07:18.810> a 00:07:18.920 --> 00:07:18.930 align:start position:0% think this is some manifestation of a 00:07:18.930 --> 00:07:21.770 align:start position:0% think this is some manifestation of a climate<00:07:19.380> change<00:07:19.740> effect<00:07:20.340> this<00:07:21.150> is<00:07:21.390> a<00:07:21.420> plant 00:07:21.770 --> 00:07:21.780 align:start position:0% climate change effect this is a plant 00:07:21.780 --> 00:07:24.290 align:start position:0% climate change effect this is a plant that<00:07:21.900> might<00:07:22.380> be<00:07:22.680> subject<00:07:23.190> to<00:07:23.760> getting 00:07:24.290 --> 00:07:24.300 align:start position:0% that might be subject to getting 00:07:24.300 --> 00:07:27.020 align:start position:0% that might be subject to getting dislocated<00:07:25.140> in<00:07:25.350> time<00:07:25.860> from<00:07:26.340> its<00:07:26.550> pollinators 00:07:27.020 --> 00:07:27.030 align:start position:0% dislocated in time from its pollinators 00:07:27.030 --> 00:07:30.700 align:start position:0% dislocated in time from its pollinators and<00:07:27.980> in<00:07:28.980> fact<00:07:29.340> that<00:07:29.520> seems<00:07:29.760> to<00:07:29.910> be<00:07:30.030> happening 00:07:30.700 --> 00:07:30.710 align:start position:0% and in fact that seems to be happening 00:07:30.710 --> 00:07:32.690 align:start position:0% and in fact that seems to be happening scientists<00:07:31.710> not<00:07:31.860> James<00:07:32.160> Thompson<00:07:32.460> the 00:07:32.690 --> 00:07:32.700 align:start position:0% scientists not James Thompson the 00:07:32.700 --> 00:07:34.010 align:start position:0% scientists not James Thompson the finding<00:07:33.090> that<00:07:33.120> the<00:07:33.360> effects<00:07:33.690> of<00:07:33.840> climate 00:07:34.010 --> 00:07:34.020 align:start position:0% finding that the effects of climate 00:07:34.020 --> 00:07:36.520 align:start position:0% finding that the effects of climate change<00:07:34.290> are<00:07:34.710> both<00:07:34.860> subtle<00:07:35.190> and<00:07:35.370> profound 00:07:36.520 --> 00:07:36.530 align:start position:0% change are both subtle and profound 00:07:36.530 --> 00:07:39.290 align:start position:0% change are both subtle and profound affecting<00:07:37.530> many<00:07:37.680> species<00:07:38.070> and<00:07:38.460> ecosystems<00:07:38.520> in 00:07:39.290 --> 00:07:39.300 align:start position:0% affecting many species and ecosystems in 00:07:39.300 --> 00:07:42.320 align:start position:0% affecting many species and ecosystems in ways<00:07:39.780> that<00:07:39.810> as<00:07:40.200> yet<00:07:40.710> we<00:07:40.740> do<00:07:41.190> not<00:07:41.310> understand<00:07:41.940> if 00:07:42.320 --> 00:07:42.330 align:start position:0% ways that as yet we do not understand if 00:07:42.330 --> 00:07:45.170 align:start position:0% ways that as yet we do not understand if climates<00:07:43.140> are<00:07:43.290> changing<00:07:44.180> relationships 00:07:45.170 --> 00:07:45.180 align:start position:0% climates are changing relationships 00:07:45.180 --> 00:07:48.170 align:start position:0% climates are changing relationships between<00:07:45.860> plants<00:07:46.860> and<00:07:47.070> pollinators<00:07:47.550> and<00:07:47.760> other 00:07:48.170 --> 00:07:48.180 align:start position:0% between plants and pollinators and other 00:07:48.180 --> 00:07:49.050 align:start position:0% between plants and pollinators and other new 00:07:49.050 --> 00:07:49.060 align:start position:0% new 00:07:49.060 --> 00:07:50.970 align:start position:0% new beneficial<00:07:49.870> relationships<00:07:50.500> those<00:07:50.740> may<00:07:50.950> be 00:07:50.970 --> 00:07:50.980 align:start position:0% beneficial relationships those may be 00:07:50.980 --> 00:07:54.300 align:start position:0% beneficial relationships those may be disrupting<00:07:51.810> these<00:07:52.810> glacier<00:07:53.290> lilies<00:07:53.500> are<00:07:53.950> a 00:07:54.300 --> 00:07:54.310 align:start position:0% disrupting these glacier lilies are a 00:07:54.310 --> 00:07:57.120 align:start position:0% disrupting these glacier lilies are a cog<00:07:55.090> in<00:07:55.480> a<00:07:55.570> pretty<00:07:55.810> complicated<00:07:56.200> ecosystem 00:07:57.120 --> 00:07:57.130 align:start position:0% cog in a pretty complicated ecosystem 00:07:57.130 --> 00:07:59.640 align:start position:0% cog in a pretty complicated ecosystem and<00:07:57.310> maybe<00:07:57.490> not<00:07:57.730> a<00:07:57.760> trivial<00:07:58.120> one<00:07:58.510> we<00:07:59.500> don't 00:07:59.640 --> 00:07:59.650 align:start position:0% and maybe not a trivial one we don't 00:07:59.650 --> 00:08:01.800 align:start position:0% and maybe not a trivial one we don't know<00:07:59.950> how<00:08:00.250> many<00:08:00.310> species<00:08:00.850> and<00:08:01.330> how<00:08:01.750> many 00:08:01.800 --> 00:08:01.810 align:start position:0% know how many species and how many 00:08:01.810 --> 00:08:04.470 align:start position:0% know how many species and how many ecosystems<00:08:02.380> are<00:08:03.160> affected<00:08:03.700> and<00:08:03.880> we're 00:08:04.470 --> 00:08:04.480 align:start position:0% ecosystems are affected and we're 00:08:04.480 --> 00:08:06.450 align:start position:0% ecosystems are affected and we're uncertain<00:08:04.990> about<00:08:05.350> the<00:08:05.620> consequences<00:08:06.430> of 00:08:06.450 --> 00:08:06.460 align:start position:0% uncertain about the consequences of 00:08:06.460 --> 00:08:09.210 align:start position:0% uncertain about the consequences of these<00:08:06.669> effects<00:08:07.300> little<00:08:08.169> differences<00:08:08.740> in<00:08:08.980> how 00:08:09.210 --> 00:08:09.220 align:start position:0% these effects little differences in how 00:08:09.220 --> 00:08:11.340 align:start position:0% these effects little differences in how individual<00:08:09.880> species<00:08:10.150> respond<00:08:10.960> to<00:08:11.139> climate 00:08:11.340 --> 00:08:11.350 align:start position:0% individual species respond to climate 00:08:11.350 --> 00:08:14.340 align:start position:0% individual species respond to climate change<00:08:11.530> tell<00:08:12.460> us<00:08:12.639> something<00:08:13.060> about<00:08:13.240> how<00:08:13.690> the 00:08:14.340 --> 00:08:14.350 align:start position:0% change tell us something about how the 00:08:14.350 --> 00:08:16.620 align:start position:0% change tell us something about how the whole<00:08:14.560> biosphere<00:08:14.889> is<00:08:15.370> going<00:08:15.730> to<00:08:15.790> respond<00:08:16.450> to 00:08:16.620 --> 00:08:16.630 align:start position:0% whole biosphere is going to respond to 00:08:16.630 --> 00:08:20.100 align:start position:0% whole biosphere is going to respond to climate<00:08:16.840> change<00:08:17.130> and<00:08:18.130> so<00:08:18.490> species<00:08:19.480> here<00:08:19.900> and 00:08:20.100 --> 00:08:20.110 align:start position:0% climate change and so species here and 00:08:20.110 --> 00:08:22.200 align:start position:0% climate change and so species here and there<00:08:20.410> ultimately<00:08:21.310> sort<00:08:21.760> of<00:08:21.820> come<00:08:22.060> together 00:08:22.200 --> 00:08:22.210 align:start position:0% there ultimately sort of come together 00:08:22.210 --> 00:08:26.520 align:start position:0% there ultimately sort of come together to<00:08:22.600> tell<00:08:22.810> a<00:08:22.840> fuller<00:08:23.470> story<00:08:25.110> while<00:08:26.110> this<00:08:26.260> fuller 00:08:26.520 --> 00:08:26.530 align:start position:0% to tell a fuller story while this fuller 00:08:26.530 --> 00:08:28.530 align:start position:0% to tell a fuller story while this fuller story<00:08:26.860> continues<00:08:27.430> to<00:08:27.460> unfold<00:08:27.610> there<00:08:28.210> remains 00:08:28.530 --> 00:08:28.540 align:start position:0% story continues to unfold there remains 00:08:28.540 --> 00:08:30.990 align:start position:0% story continues to unfold there remains much<00:08:28.660> uncertainty<00:08:29.530> for<00:08:29.740> policymakers<00:08:30.430> who 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position:0% global warming or we could try to adapt 00:08:39.520 --> 00:08:41.909 align:start position:0% global warming or we could try to adapt to<00:08:39.940> it<00:08:40.089> we're<00:08:41.020> going<00:08:41.140> to<00:08:41.200> have<00:08:41.409> to<00:08:41.589> be<00:08:41.620> doing 00:08:41.909 --> 00:08:41.919 align:start position:0% to it we're going to have to be doing 00:08:41.919 --> 00:08:45.180 align:start position:0% to it we're going to have to be doing some<00:08:42.219> a<00:08:42.460> tribal<00:08:43.029> court<00:08:43.180> adaptation<00:08:43.839> to<00:08:44.380> to<00:08:45.070> the 00:08:45.180 --> 00:08:45.190 align:start position:0% some a tribal court adaptation to to the 00:08:45.190 --> 00:08:46.650 align:start position:0% some a tribal court adaptation to to the effects<00:08:45.430> of<00:08:45.580> climate<00:08:45.700> inevitable<00:08:46.360> climate 00:08:46.650 --> 00:08:46.660 align:start position:0% effects of climate inevitable climate 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need<00:08:53.620> to<00:08:53.710> do<00:08:53.800> both<00:08:54.040> you<00:08:54.730> know<00:08:54.850> we<00:08:55.030> need<00:08:55.210> we<00:08:55.360> need 00:08:55.380 --> 00:08:55.390 align:start position:0% need to do both you know we need we need 00:08:55.390 --> 00:08:57.650 align:start position:0% need to do both you know we need we need to<00:08:55.690> try<00:08:55.930> and<00:08:56.110> reduce<00:08:56.620> global<00:08:56.890> warming<00:08:57.070> by 00:08:57.650 --> 00:08:57.660 align:start position:0% to try and reduce global warming by 00:08:57.660 --> 00:09:01.320 align:start position:0% to try and reduce global warming by reducing<00:08:58.660> less<00:08:59.290> greenhouse<00:09:00.130> gases<00:09:00.580> but<00:09:01.210> we'll 00:09:01.320 --> 00:09:01.330 align:start position:0% reducing less greenhouse gases but we'll 00:09:01.330 --> 00:09:03.900 align:start position:0% reducing less greenhouse gases but we'll need<00:09:01.450> to<00:09:01.510> adapt<00:09:01.870> to<00:09:02.200> the<00:09:02.400> changes<00:09:03.400> that<00:09:03.430> result 00:09:03.900 --> 00:09:03.910 align:start position:0% need to adapt to the changes that result 00:09:03.910 --> 00:09:07.260 align:start position:0% need to adapt to the changes that result from<00:09:03.970> those<00:09:04.300> we<00:09:04.510> have<00:09:04.660> a<00:09:04.690> mission<00:09:06.270> preventing 00:09:07.260 --> 00:09:07.270 align:start position:0% from those we have a mission preventing 00:09:07.270 --> 00:09:09.960 align:start position:0% from those we have a mission preventing climate<00:09:07.630> change<00:09:07.900> or<00:09:08.200> mitigation<00:09:08.970> requires 00:09:09.960 --> 00:09:09.970 align:start position:0% climate change or mitigation requires 00:09:09.970 --> 00:09:12.150 align:start position:0% climate change or mitigation requires new<00:09:10.240> technologies<00:09:10.930> and<00:09:10.960> global<00:09:11.589> action<00:09:11.740> to 00:09:12.150 --> 00:09:12.160 align:start position:0% new technologies and global action to 00:09:12.160 --> 00:09:14.760 align:start position:0% new technologies and global action to reduce<00:09:12.339> gas<00:09:12.820> emissions<00:09:13.300> both<00:09:14.260> of<00:09:14.470> which<00:09:14.620> are 00:09:14.760 --> 00:09:14.770 align:start position:0% reduce gas emissions both of which are 00:09:14.770 --> 00:09:17.820 align:start position:0% reduce gas emissions both of which are uncertain<00:09:15.780> so<00:09:16.780> in<00:09:16.900> this<00:09:17.050> film<00:09:17.290> we<00:09:17.350> ask<00:09:17.530> how<00:09:17.770> can 00:09:17.820 --> 00:09:17.830 align:start position:0% uncertain so in this film we ask how can 00:09:17.830 --> 00:09:19.590 align:start position:0% uncertain so in this film we ask how can we<00:09:18.130> make<00:09:18.280> sensible<00:09:18.790> decisions<00:09:18.940> about 00:09:19.590 --> 00:09:19.600 align:start position:0% we make sensible decisions about 00:09:19.600 --> 00:09:23.070 align:start position:0% we make sensible decisions about adaptation<00:09:19.990> to<00:09:20.650> climate<00:09:20.680> change<00:09:21.900> the<00:09:22.900> sea 00:09:23.070 --> 00:09:23.080 align:start position:0% adaptation to climate change the sea 00:09:23.080 --> 00:09:25.260 align:start position:0% adaptation to climate change the sea level<00:09:23.290> is<00:09:23.470> rising<00:09:23.820> weather<00:09:24.820> patterns 00:09:25.260 --> 00:09:25.270 align:start position:0% level is rising weather patterns 00:09:25.270 --> 00:09:28.550 align:start position:0% level is rising weather patterns changing<00:09:26.490> agricultural<00:09:27.490> zones<00:09:27.520> are<00:09:28.060> shifting 00:09:28.550 --> 00:09:28.560 align:start position:0% changing agricultural zones are shifting 00:09:28.560 --> 00:09:31.290 align:start position:0% changing agricultural zones are shifting how<00:09:29.560> can<00:09:29.589> we<00:09:29.890> make<00:09:30.040> sensible<00:09:30.520> decisions<00:09:30.700> about 00:09:31.290 --> 00:09:31.300 align:start position:0% how can we make sensible decisions about 00:09:31.300 --> 00:09:34.500 align:start position:0% how can we make sensible decisions about where<00:09:31.690> to<00:09:31.720> focus<00:09:32.080> our<00:09:32.410> limited<00:09:33.010> resources<00:09:33.510> to 00:09:34.500 --> 00:09:34.510 align:start position:0% where to focus our limited resources to 00:09:34.510 --> 00:09:38.280 align:start position:0% where to focus our limited resources to best<00:09:34.839> adapt<00:09:35.380> to<00:09:35.740> climate<00:09:35.890> change<00:09:36.990> one<00:09:37.990> way<00:09:38.140> of 00:09:38.280 --> 00:09:38.290 align:start position:0% best adapt to climate change one way of 00:09:38.290 --> 00:09:39.990 align:start position:0% best adapt to climate change one way of looking<00:09:38.320> at<00:09:38.650> these<00:09:38.800> problems<00:09:39.310> is<00:09:39.459> to<00:09:39.790> apply 00:09:39.990 --> 00:09:40.000 align:start position:0% looking at these problems is to apply 00:09:40.000 --> 00:09:41.940 align:start position:0% looking at these problems is to apply monetary<00:09:40.690> values<00:09:41.170> to<00:09:41.320> the<00:09:41.350> costs<00:09:41.860> and 00:09:41.940 --> 00:09:41.950 align:start position:0% monetary values to the costs and 00:09:41.950 --> 00:09:44.250 align:start position:0% monetary values to the costs and benefits<00:09:42.010> of<00:09:42.610> adaptation<00:09:43.300> and<00:09:43.510> then<00:09:44.080> use 00:09:44.250 --> 00:09:44.260 align:start position:0% benefits of adaptation and then use 00:09:44.260 --> 00:09:46.140 align:start position:0% benefits of adaptation and then use statistical<00:09:44.950> methods<00:09:45.339> to<00:09:45.520> make<00:09:45.670> sensible 00:09:46.140 --> 00:09:46.150 align:start position:0% statistical methods to make sensible 00:09:46.150 --> 00:09:48.449 align:start position:0% statistical methods to make sensible decisions<00:09:46.330> about<00:09:47.020> where<00:09:47.680> to<00:09:47.709> focus<00:09:48.070> our 00:09:48.449 --> 00:09:48.459 align:start position:0% decisions about where to focus our 00:09:48.459 --> 00:09:50.990 align:start position:0% decisions about where to focus our limited<00:09:48.880> resources 00:09:50.990 --> 00:09:51.000 align:start position:0% 00:09:51.000 --> 00:09:53.310 align:start position:0% but<00:09:52.000> before<00:09:52.270> we<00:09:52.360> can<00:09:52.510> do<00:09:52.690> that<00:09:52.720> we<00:09:52.930> need<00:09:53.110> to 00:09:53.310 --> 00:09:53.320 align:start position:0% but before we can do that we need to 00:09:53.320 --> 00:09:55.910 align:start position:0% but before we can do that we need to consider<00:09:53.590> a<00:09:53.830> concept<00:09:54.460> that<00:09:54.760> we<00:09:55.300> call 00:09:55.910 --> 00:09:55.920 align:start position:0% consider a concept that we call 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rate if interest rates<00:10:07.750> of<00:10:08.020> 5%<00:10:08.640> people<00:10:09.640> are<00:10:09.760> saying<00:10:10.030> I'm 00:10:10.320 --> 00:10:10.330 align:start position:0% rates of 5% people are saying I'm 00:10:10.330 --> 00:10:12.420 align:start position:0% rates of 5% people are saying I'm indifferent<00:10:10.780> between<00:10:11.530> a<00:10:11.830> hundred<00:10:12.280> pounds 00:10:12.420 --> 00:10:12.430 align:start position:0% indifferent between a hundred pounds 00:10:12.430 --> 00:10:15.060 align:start position:0% indifferent between a hundred pounds worth<00:10:12.760> of<00:10:12.940> benefits<00:10:13.090> now<00:10:13.690> and<00:10:14.050> a<00:10:14.590> hundred<00:10:14.800> and 00:10:15.060 --> 00:10:15.070 align:start position:0% worth of benefits now and a hundred and 00:10:15.070 --> 00:10:17.070 align:start position:0% worth of benefits now and a hundred and five<00:10:15.310> pounds<00:10:15.790> worth<00:10:15.940> of<00:10:16.060> benefits<00:10:16.210> in<00:10:16.690> a 00:10:17.070 --> 00:10:17.080 align:start position:0% five pounds worth of benefits in a 00:10:17.080 --> 00:10:21.030 align:start position:0% five pounds worth of benefits in a year's<00:10:17.350> time<00:10:18.090> the<00:10:19.090> future<00:10:19.660> is<00:10:19.930> worth<00:10:20.410> less<00:10:20.800> to 00:10:21.030 --> 00:10:21.040 align:start position:0% year's time the future is worth less to 00:10:21.040 --> 00:10:24.680 align:start position:0% year's time the future is worth less to us<00:10:21.190> than<00:10:21.550> the<00:10:21.670> present<00:10:22.650> we<00:10:23.650> can<00:10:23.800> work<00:10:24.010> out<00:10:24.190> the 00:10:24.680 --> 00:10:24.690 align:start position:0% us than the present we can work out the 00:10:24.690 --> 00:10:27.600 align:start position:0% us than the present we can work out the discounted<00:10:25.690> value<00:10:25.930> of<00:10:26.410> some<00:10:26.680> some<00:10:27.010> the 00:10:27.600 --> 00:10:27.610 align:start position:0% discounted value of some some the 00:10:27.610 --> 00:10:31.770 align:start position:0% discounted value of some some the present<00:10:28.570> value<00:10:28.890> pv<00:10:29.890> for<00:10:30.820> any<00:10:31.090> interest<00:10:31.570> rate 00:10:31.770 --> 00:10:31.780 align:start position:0% present value pv for any interest rate 00:10:31.780 --> 00:10:35.310 align:start position:0% present value pv for any interest rate for<00:10:32.350> any<00:10:32.530> future<00:10:32.830> time<00:10:33.370> period<00:10:33.850> and<00:10:34.110> we<00:10:35.110> use 00:10:35.310 --> 00:10:35.320 align:start position:0% for any future time period and we use 00:10:35.320 --> 00:10:39.810 align:start position:0% for any future time period and we use the<00:10:35.530> formula<00:10:36.010> but<00:10:36.790> pv<00:10:37.590> present<00:10:38.590> value<00:10:38.890> equals 00:10:39.810 --> 00:10:39.820 align:start position:0% the formula but pv present value equals 00:10:39.820 --> 00:10:47.790 align:start position:0% the formula but pv present value equals a<00:10:40.470> over<00:10:42.630> 1<00:10:43.630> plus<00:10:43.900> R<00:10:44.140> to<00:10:45.100> the<00:10:45.130> power<00:10:45.250> n<00:10:46.530> where<00:10:47.530> a 00:10:47.790 --> 00:10:47.800 align:start position:0% a over 1 plus R to the power n where a 00:10:47.800 --> 00:10:50.270 align:start position:0% a over 1 plus R to the power n where a is<00:10:48.130> the<00:10:48.360> sum<00:10:49.360> of<00:10:49.390> money<00:10:49.630> we're<00:10:49.870> talking<00:10:49.900> about 00:10:50.270 --> 00:10:50.280 align:start position:0% is the sum of money we're talking about 00:10:50.280 --> 00:10:55.410 align:start position:0% is the sum of money we're talking about r<00:10:51.300> is<00:10:52.300> the<00:10:52.900> appropriate<00:10:53.470> interest<00:10:54.100> rate<00:10:54.310> and<00:10:54.550> n 00:10:55.410 --> 00:10:55.420 align:start position:0% r is the appropriate interest rate and n 00:10:55.420 --> 00:10:57.390 align:start position:0% r is the appropriate interest rate and n is<00:10:55.870> the<00:10:56.320> number<00:10:56.440> of<00:10:56.620> years<00:10:56.920> into<00:10:57.280> the<00:10:57.370> future 00:10:57.390 --> 00:10:57.400 align:start position:0% is the number of years into the future 00:10:57.400 --> 00:11:01.950 align:start position:0% is the number of years into the future that<00:10:58.210> we're<00:10:58.360> considering<00:11:00.630> suppose<00:11:01.630> we<00:11:01.810> had<00:11:01.930> a 00:11:01.950 --> 00:11:01.960 align:start position:0% that we're considering suppose we had a 00:11:01.960 --> 00:11:04.800 align:start position:0% that we're considering suppose we had a ten<00:11:02.350> percent<00:11:02.470> discount<00:11:02.860> rate<00:11:03.570> we're<00:11:04.570> saying 00:11:04.800 --> 00:11:04.810 align:start position:0% ten percent discount rate we're saying 00:11:04.810 --> 00:11:07.500 align:start position:0% ten percent discount rate we're saying that<00:11:04.990> we're<00:11:05.170> indifferent<00:11:05.530> between<00:11:06.430> a<00:11:06.940> hundred 00:11:07.500 --> 00:11:07.510 align:start position:0% that we're indifferent between a hundred 00:11:07.510 --> 00:11:10.260 align:start position:0% that we're indifferent between a hundred pounds<00:11:07.690> now<00:11:08.140> or<00:11:08.460> 110<00:11:09.460> pounds<00:11:09.850> in<00:11:09.940> a<00:11:10.030> year's 00:11:10.260 --> 00:11:10.270 align:start position:0% pounds now or 110 pounds in a year's 00:11:10.270 --> 00:11:14.400 align:start position:0% pounds now or 110 pounds in a year's time<00:11:10.830> or<00:11:11.830> to<00:11:12.100> put<00:11:12.130> that<00:11:12.520> another<00:11:12.820> way<00:11:13.260> we'd<00:11:14.260> be 00:11:14.400 --> 00:11:14.410 align:start position:0% time or to put that another way we'd be 00:11:14.410 --> 00:11:18.330 align:start position:0% time or to put that another way we'd be indifferent<00:11:14.770> between<00:11:16.110> 82.6<00:11:17.110> pounds<00:11:17.650> now<00:11:17.980> and 00:11:18.330 --> 00:11:18.340 align:start position:0% indifferent between 82.6 pounds now and 00:11:18.340 --> 00:11:21.210 align:start position:0% indifferent between 82.6 pounds now and a<00:11:19.090> hundred<00:11:19.420> pounds<00:11:20.080> in<00:11:20.260> two<00:11:20.620> years<00:11:20.860> time 00:11:21.210 --> 00:11:21.220 align:start position:0% a hundred pounds in two years time 00:11:21.220 --> 00:11:25.050 align:start position:0% a hundred pounds in two years time because<00:11:22.180> if<00:11:22.300> we<00:11:22.450> had<00:11:22.740> 82.6<00:11:23.740> pounds<00:11:24.190> now<00:11:24.400> we 00:11:25.050 --> 00:11:25.060 align:start position:0% because if we had 82.6 pounds now we 00:11:25.060 --> 00:11:27.330 align:start position:0% because if we had 82.6 pounds now we could<00:11:25.240> invest<00:11:25.720> it<00:11:25.990> at<00:11:26.290> a<00:11:26.350> compound<00:11:27.010> interest 00:11:27.330 --> 00:11:27.340 align:start position:0% could invest it at a compound interest 00:11:27.340 --> 00:11:30.030 align:start position:0% could invest it at a compound interest rate<00:11:27.640> of<00:11:27.790> ten<00:11:28.000> percent<00:11:28.390> and<00:11:28.570> turn<00:11:29.260> it<00:11:29.440> into<00:11:29.620> a 00:11:30.030 --> 00:11:30.040 align:start position:0% rate of ten percent and turn it into a 00:11:30.040 --> 00:11:34.990 align:start position:0% rate of ten percent and turn it into a hundred<00:11:30.760> pounds<00:11:31.210> in<00:11:31.330> two<00:11:32.050> years<00:11:32.230> time 00:11:34.990 --> 00:11:35.000 align:start position:0% 00:11:35.000 --> 00:11:37.600 align:start position:0% our<00:11:35.600> table<00:11:35.870> shows<00:11:36.230> us<00:11:36.380> the<00:11:36.530> present<00:11:37.010> value<00:11:37.040> of 00:11:37.600 --> 00:11:37.610 align:start position:0% our table shows us the present value of 00:11:37.610 --> 00:11:40.890 align:start position:0% our table shows us the present value of one<00:11:38.120> pound<00:11:38.420> at<00:11:38.990> various<00:11:39.800> interest<00:11:40.160> rates<00:11:40.400> in 00:11:40.890 --> 00:11:40.900 align:start position:0% one pound at various interest rates in 00:11:40.900 --> 00:11:44.590 align:start position:0% one pound at various interest rates in 200<00:11:41.900> years<00:11:41.930> time<00:11:42.520> we're<00:11:43.520> looking<00:11:43.790> at<00:11:43.910> a<00:11:43.940> period 00:11:44.590 --> 00:11:44.600 align:start position:0% 200 years time we're looking at a period 00:11:44.600 --> 00:11:46.780 align:start position:0% 200 years time we're looking at a period well<00:11:45.080> into<00:11:45.350> the<00:11:45.440> future<00:11:45.620> because<00:11:46.580> global 00:11:46.780 --> 00:11:46.790 align:start position:0% well into the future because global 00:11:46.790 --> 00:11:48.910 align:start position:0% well into the future because global warming<00:11:47.450> policies<00:11:47.930> will<00:11:48.110> continue<00:11:48.590> to<00:11:48.740> have 00:11:48.910 --> 00:11:48.920 align:start position:0% warming policies will continue to have 00:11:48.920 --> 00:11:54.060 align:start position:0% warming policies will continue to have an<00:11:49.040> effect<00:11:49.370> for<00:11:49.880> a<00:11:49.910> very<00:11:50.180> long<00:11:50.420> time<00:11:52.840> given<00:11:53.840> a 00:11:54.060 --> 00:11:54.070 align:start position:0% an effect for a very long time given a 00:11:54.070 --> 00:11:58.180 align:start position:0% an effect for a very long time given a discount<00:11:55.070> rate<00:11:55.370> of<00:11:55.780> five<00:11:56.780> percent<00:11:57.320> the 00:11:58.180 --> 00:11:58.190 align:start position:0% discount rate of five percent the 00:11:58.190 --> 00:12:01.210 align:start position:0% discount rate of five percent the present<00:11:58.730> value<00:11:58.790> of<00:11:59.480> one<00:11:59.900> pound<00:12:00.350> received<00:12:01.010> in 00:12:01.210 --> 00:12:01.220 align:start position:0% present value of one pound received in 00:12:01.220 --> 00:12:05.350 align:start position:0% present value of one pound received in 200<00:12:01.700> years<00:12:01.730> time<00:12:02.180> is<00:12:02.420> only<00:12:03.320> naught<00:12:04.070> point<00:12:04.490> zero 00:12:05.350 --> 00:12:05.360 align:start position:0% 200 years time is only naught point zero 00:12:05.360 --> 00:12:11.710 align:start position:0% 200 years time is only naught point zero zero<00:12:05.480> zero<00:12:06.110> zero<00:12:06.800> five<00:12:07.610> eight<00:12:08.680> pounds<00:12:10.480> on<00:12:11.480> this 00:12:11.710 --> 00:12:11.720 align:start position:0% zero zero zero five eight pounds on this 00:12:11.720 --> 00:12:13.570 align:start position:0% zero zero zero five eight pounds on this basis<00:12:12.140> we<00:12:12.170> might<00:12:12.530> argue<00:12:12.950> that<00:12:12.980> you'd<00:12:13.250> have<00:12:13.280> to 00:12:13.570 --> 00:12:13.580 align:start position:0% basis we might argue that you'd have to 00:12:13.580 --> 00:12:15.400 align:start position:0% basis we might argue that you'd have to love<00:12:13.730> your<00:12:13.850> grandchildren<00:12:14.510> a<00:12:14.600> great<00:12:14.870> deal<00:12:15.170> if 00:12:15.400 --> 00:12:15.410 align:start position:0% love your grandchildren a great deal if 00:12:15.410 --> 00:12:17.920 align:start position:0% love your grandchildren a great deal if you're<00:12:16.070> willing<00:12:16.490> to<00:12:16.520> give<00:12:16.820> up<00:12:16.970> at<00:12:17.300> say<00:12:17.600> a<00:12:17.630> five 00:12:17.920 --> 00:12:17.930 align:start position:0% you're willing to give up at say a five 00:12:17.930 --> 00:12:20.800 align:start position:0% you're willing to give up at say a five percent<00:12:18.230> discount<00:12:18.500> rate<00:12:19.210> 10,000<00:12:20.210> pounds<00:12:20.570> now 00:12:20.800 --> 00:12:20.810 align:start position:0% percent discount rate 10,000 pounds now 00:12:20.810 --> 00:12:24.070 align:start position:0% percent discount rate 10,000 pounds now so<00:12:21.500> that<00:12:21.650> they<00:12:21.770> could<00:12:21.980> have<00:12:22.010> 58<00:12:22.790> pence<00:12:23.210> in<00:12:23.510> 200 00:12:24.070 --> 00:12:24.080 align:start position:0% so that they could have 58 pence in 200 00:12:24.080 --> 00:12:26.590 align:start position:0% so that they could have 58 pence in 200 years<00:12:24.110> time<00:12:25.450> discounting<00:12:26.450> is<00:12:26.570> a 00:12:26.590 --> 00:12:26.600 align:start position:0% years time discounting is a 00:12:26.600 --> 00:12:28.810 align:start position:0% years time discounting is a well-established<00:12:26.960> idea<00:12:27.770> there's<00:12:28.340> useful<00:12:28.700> in 00:12:28.810 --> 00:12:28.820 align:start position:0% well-established idea there's useful in 00:12:28.820 --> 00:12:31.330 align:start position:0% well-established idea there's useful in making<00:12:29.000> investment<00:12:29.720> decisions<00:12:30.070> for<00:12:31.070> instance 00:12:31.330 --> 00:12:31.340 align:start position:0% making investment decisions for instance 00:12:31.340 --> 00:12:33.310 align:start position:0% making investment decisions for instance using<00:12:31.760> discounting<00:12:32.420> to<00:12:32.540> make<00:12:32.720> decisions<00:12:33.200> on 00:12:33.310 --> 00:12:33.320 align:start position:0% using discounting to make decisions on 00:12:33.320 --> 00:12:35.980 align:start position:0% using discounting to make decisions on motorways<00:12:33.890> or<00:12:34.220> high-speed<00:12:34.520> rail<00:12:35.060> lines<00:12:35.360> makes 00:12:35.980 --> 00:12:35.990 align:start position:0% motorways or high-speed rail lines makes 00:12:35.990 --> 00:12:39.340 align:start position:0% motorways or high-speed rail lines makes sense<00:12:37.030> but<00:12:38.030> does<00:12:38.390> it<00:12:38.420> make<00:12:38.630> sense<00:12:39.140> when 00:12:39.340 --> 00:12:39.350 align:start position:0% sense but does it make sense when 00:12:39.350 --> 00:12:41.200 align:start position:0% sense but does it make sense when considering<00:12:39.830> adaptations<00:12:40.640> to<00:12:40.730> climate 00:12:41.200 --> 00:12:41.210 align:start position:0% considering adaptations to climate 00:12:41.210 --> 00:12:45.579 align:start position:0% considering adaptations to climate change<00:12:42.580> some<00:12:43.580> think<00:12:43.880> so<00:12:44.150> but<00:12:44.690> not<00:12:45.020> all<00:12:45.170> would 00:12:45.579 --> 00:12:45.589 align:start position:0% change some think so but not all would 00:12:45.589 --> 00:12:48.250 align:start position:0% change some think so but not all would agree<00:12:45.620> that<00:12:45.890> it<00:12:46.130> does<00:12:46.370> well<00:12:47.330> public<00:12:47.660> policy<00:12:48.110> is 00:12:48.250 --> 00:12:48.260 align:start position:0% agree that it does well public policy is 00:12:48.260 --> 00:12:51.130 align:start position:0% agree that it does well public policy is all<00:12:48.410> about<00:12:48.680> values<00:12:49.160> and<00:12:49.450> it's<00:12:50.450> essentially 00:12:51.130 --> 00:12:51.140 align:start position:0% all about values and it's essentially 00:12:51.140 --> 00:12:54.340 align:start position:0% all about values and it's essentially saying<00:12:51.470> that<00:12:51.920> as<00:12:52.370> people<00:12:52.820> who<00:12:53.240> live<00:12:53.450> now<00:12:53.720> we 00:12:54.340 --> 00:12:54.350 align:start position:0% saying that as people who live now we 00:12:54.350 --> 00:12:56.590 align:start position:0% saying that as people who live now we care<00:12:54.650> more<00:12:54.920> about<00:12:55.250> the<00:12:55.970> wealth<00:12:56.210> that<00:12:56.450> we're 00:12:56.590 --> 00:12:56.600 align:start position:0% care more about the wealth that we're 00:12:56.600 --> 00:12:58.570 align:start position:0% care more about the wealth that we're going<00:12:56.750> to<00:12:56.839> accumulate<00:12:57.530> there<00:12:58.310> are<00:12:58.430> other 00:12:58.570 --> 00:12:58.580 align:start position:0% going to accumulate there are other 00:12:58.580 --> 00:13:01.000 align:start position:0% going to accumulate there are other problems<00:12:58.850> with<00:12:59.150> discounting<00:12:59.930> you<00:13:00.589> might<00:13:00.770> feel 00:13:01.000 --> 00:13:01.010 align:start position:0% problems with discounting you might feel 00:13:01.010 --> 00:13:03.400 align:start position:0% problems with discounting you might feel the<00:13:01.220> climate<00:13:01.880> change<00:13:02.120> raises<00:13:02.570> ethical<00:13:02.810> issues 00:13:03.400 --> 00:13:03.410 align:start position:0% the climate change raises ethical issues 00:13:03.410 --> 00:13:05.320 align:start position:0% the climate change raises ethical issues because<00:13:03.770> costs<00:13:04.190> are<00:13:04.280> not<00:13:04.460> born<00:13:04.790> within<00:13:05.120> an 00:13:05.320 --> 00:13:05.330 align:start position:0% because costs are not born within an 00:13:05.330 --> 00:13:07.630 align:start position:0% because costs are not born within an investment<00:13:05.930> silikal<00:13:06.470> but<00:13:07.010> by<00:13:07.160> future 00:13:07.630 --> 00:13:07.640 align:start position:0% investment silikal but by future 00:13:07.640 --> 00:13:10.960 align:start position:0% investment silikal but by future generations<00:13:09.160> you<00:13:10.160> might<00:13:10.310> be<00:13:10.460> concerned<00:13:10.880> that 00:13:10.960 --> 00:13:10.970 align:start position:0% generations you might be concerned that 00:13:10.970 --> 00:13:13.600 align:start position:0% generations you might be concerned that costs<00:13:11.390> of<00:13:11.480> adaptation<00:13:12.140> are<00:13:12.260> not<00:13:12.710> born<00:13:13.010> evenly 00:13:13.600 --> 00:13:13.610 align:start position:0% costs of adaptation are not born evenly 00:13:13.610 --> 00:13:16.570 align:start position:0% costs of adaptation are not born evenly by<00:13:13.820> also<00:13:14.240> some<00:13:14.450> at<00:13:14.630> ease<00:13:15.310> for<00:13:16.310> instance 00:13:16.570 --> 00:13:16.580 align:start position:0% by also some at ease for instance 00:13:16.580 --> 00:13:18.579 align:start position:0% by also some at ease for instance European<00:13:17.240> nations<00:13:17.600> are<00:13:17.810> already<00:13:18.350> preparing 00:13:18.579 --> 00:13:18.589 align:start position:0% European nations are already preparing 00:13:18.589 --> 00:13:21.070 align:start position:0% European nations are already preparing for<00:13:19.100> sea<00:13:19.280> level<00:13:19.580> rise<00:13:19.790> and<00:13:20.089> will<00:13:20.690> suffer 00:13:21.070 --> 00:13:21.080 align:start position:0% for sea level rise and will suffer 00:13:21.080 --> 00:13:24.010 align:start position:0% for sea level rise and will suffer relatively<00:13:21.740> minor<00:13:22.070> effects<00:13:22.780> whereas<00:13:23.780> some 00:13:24.010 --> 00:13:24.020 align:start position:0% relatively minor effects whereas some 00:13:24.020 --> 00:13:28.240 align:start position:0% relatively minor effects whereas some nations<00:13:24.470> may<00:13:25.040> be<00:13:25.100> completely<00:13:25.700> inundated<00:13:27.250> sea 00:13:28.240 --> 00:13:28.250 align:start position:0% nations may be completely inundated sea 00:13:28.250 --> 00:13:30.730 align:start position:0% nations may be completely inundated sea level<00:13:28.550> rise<00:13:28.790> in<00:13:29.089> Europe<00:13:29.480> is<00:13:29.630> an<00:13:30.230> engineering 00:13:30.730 --> 00:13:30.740 align:start position:0% level rise in Europe is an engineering 00:13:30.740 --> 00:13:33.490 align:start position:0% level rise in Europe is an engineering challenge<00:13:31.630> but<00:13:32.630> for<00:13:32.839> other<00:13:32.960> parts<00:13:33.350> of<00:13:33.440> the 00:13:33.490 --> 00:13:33.500 align:start position:0% challenge but for other parts of the 00:13:33.500 --> 00:13:35.500 align:start position:0% challenge but for other parts of the world<00:13:33.710> it<00:13:33.950> may<00:13:34.130> obliterate<00:13:34.850> nations<00:13:35.330> and 00:13:35.500 --> 00:13:35.510 align:start position:0% world it may obliterate nations and 00:13:35.510 --> 00:13:39.670 align:start position:0% world it may obliterate nations and cultures<00:13:37.180> similarly<00:13:38.180> damage<00:13:39.020> the<00:13:39.200> habitats 00:13:39.670 --> 00:13:39.680 align:start position:0% cultures similarly damage the habitats 00:13:39.680 --> 00:13:41.590 align:start position:0% cultures similarly damage the habitats in<00:13:39.920> mountains<00:13:40.400> and<00:13:40.580> coastal<00:13:41.000> regions<00:13:41.420> will 00:13:41.590 --> 00:13:41.600 align:start position:0% in mountains and coastal regions will 00:13:41.600 --> 00:13:45.510 align:start position:0% in mountains and coastal regions will cause<00:13:42.130> extinction<00:13:43.130> of<00:13:43.310> many<00:13:43.940> species 00:13:45.510 --> 00:13:45.520 align:start position:0% cause extinction of many species 00:13:45.520 --> 00:13:48.390 align:start position:0% cause extinction of many species any<00:13:46.140> value<00:13:47.140> we<00:13:47.290> assigned<00:13:47.680> to<00:13:47.830> this<00:13:47.980> will<00:13:48.190> have 00:13:48.390 --> 00:13:48.400 align:start position:0% any value we assigned to this will have 00:13:48.400 --> 00:13:52.110 align:start position:0% any value we assigned to this will have large<00:13:48.750> uncertainties<00:13:49.750> attached<00:13:50.140> to<00:13:50.380> it<00:13:51.120> there 00:13:52.110 --> 00:13:52.120 align:start position:0% large uncertainties attached to it there 00:13:52.120 --> 00:13:54.060 align:start position:0% large uncertainties attached to it there are<00:13:52.150> further<00:13:52.420> problems<00:13:53.080> when<00:13:53.680> we<00:13:53.770> think<00:13:53.800> about 00:13:54.060 --> 00:13:54.070 align:start position:0% are further problems when we think about 00:13:54.070 --> 00:13:57.510 align:start position:0% are further problems when we think about the<00:13:54.250> distributional<00:13:55.180> effects<00:13:56.520> suppose 00:13:57.510 --> 00:13:57.520 align:start position:0% the distributional effects suppose 00:13:57.520 --> 00:13:59.280 align:start position:0% the distributional effects suppose there's<00:13:57.790> some<00:13:58.000> policy<00:13:58.540> which<00:13:58.720> is<00:13:58.870> going<00:13:59.140> to 00:13:59.280 --> 00:13:59.290 align:start position:0% there's some policy which is going to 00:13:59.290 --> 00:14:03.690 align:start position:0% there's some policy which is going to lose<00:13:59.670> one<00:14:00.670> dollar<00:14:01.090> per<00:14:01.240> day<00:14:01.810> per<00:14:02.260> person<00:14:02.700> it's 00:14:03.690 --> 00:14:03.700 align:start position:0% lose one dollar per day per person it's 00:14:03.700 --> 00:14:06.420 align:start position:0% lose one dollar per day per person it's pretty<00:14:04.180> trivial<00:14:05.190> unless<00:14:06.190> you're<00:14:06.400> a 00:14:06.420 --> 00:14:06.430 align:start position:0% pretty trivial unless you're a 00:14:06.430 --> 00:14:09.720 align:start position:0% pretty trivial unless you're a developing<00:14:07.060> world<00:14:07.330> farmer<00:14:07.960> in<00:14:08.650> which<00:14:08.830> case<00:14:09.130> it 00:14:09.720 --> 00:14:09.730 align:start position:0% developing world farmer in which case it 00:14:09.730 --> 00:14:11.040 align:start position:0% developing world farmer in which case it might<00:14:09.940> mean<00:14:10.210> the<00:14:10.330> difference<00:14:10.450> between<00:14:10.720> life 00:14:11.040 --> 00:14:11.050 align:start position:0% might mean the difference between life 00:14:11.050 --> 00:14:14.850 align:start position:0% might mean the difference between life and<00:14:11.410> death<00:14:12.840> will<00:14:13.840> return<00:14:14.140> to<00:14:14.320> the<00:14:14.410> question<00:14:14.590> of 00:14:14.850 --> 00:14:14.860 align:start position:0% and death will return to the question of 00:14:14.860 --> 00:14:17.010 align:start position:0% and death will return to the question of the<00:14:15.010> distribution<00:14:15.310> of<00:14:15.730> income<00:14:15.850> in<00:14:16.630> a<00:14:16.810> later 00:14:17.010 --> 00:14:17.020 align:start position:0% the distribution of income in a later 00:14:17.020 --> 00:14:21.960 align:start position:0% the distribution of income in a later film<00:14:19.380> there<00:14:20.380> are<00:14:20.500> no<00:14:20.620> right<00:14:20.950> answers<00:14:21.010> here 00:14:21.960 --> 00:14:21.970 align:start position:0% film there are no right answers here 00:14:21.970 --> 00:14:24.630 align:start position:0% film there are no right answers here because<00:14:22.810> we're<00:14:22.990> not<00:14:23.020> always<00:14:23.320> agreed<00:14:23.980> about 00:14:24.630 --> 00:14:24.640 align:start position:0% because we're not always agreed about 00:14:24.640 --> 00:14:28.800 align:start position:0% because we're not always agreed about the<00:14:24.820> costs<00:14:25.420> and<00:14:25.570> the<00:14:25.630> benefits<00:14:25.840> involved<00:14:27.810> but 00:14:28.800 --> 00:14:28.810 align:start position:0% the costs and the benefits involved but 00:14:28.810 --> 00:14:30.990 align:start position:0% the costs and the benefits involved but what<00:14:28.990> we<00:14:29.110> are<00:14:29.290> interested<00:14:29.590> in<00:14:29.980> is<00:14:30.190> the 00:14:30.990 --> 00:14:31.000 align:start position:0% what we are interested in is the 00:14:31.000 --> 00:14:34.350 align:start position:0% what we are interested in is the methodology<00:14:32.130> so<00:14:33.130> let's<00:14:33.370> look<00:14:33.700> at<00:14:33.910> some 00:14:34.350 --> 00:14:34.360 align:start position:0% methodology so let's look at some 00:14:34.360 --> 00:14:37.020 align:start position:0% methodology so let's look at some estimates<00:14:35.230> that<00:14:35.350> have<00:14:35.560> been<00:14:35.770> made<00:14:35.880> but<00:14:36.880> not 00:14:37.020 --> 00:14:37.030 align:start position:0% estimates that have been made but not 00:14:37.030 --> 00:14:39.330 align:start position:0% estimates that have been made but not get<00:14:37.270> too<00:14:37.510> hung<00:14:37.720> up<00:14:37.840> on<00:14:37.990> the<00:14:38.140> numbers<00:14:38.560> let's 00:14:39.330 --> 00:14:39.340 align:start position:0% get too hung up on the numbers let's 00:14:39.340 --> 00:14:43.290 align:start position:0% get too hung up on the numbers let's just<00:14:39.460> understand<00:14:40.450> the<00:14:41.080> methodology<00:14:42.300> given 00:14:43.290 --> 00:14:43.300 align:start position:0% just understand the methodology given 00:14:43.300 --> 00:14:45.030 align:start position:0% just understand the methodology given was<00:14:43.420> so<00:14:43.630> unsure<00:14:43.810> about<00:14:44.350> the<00:14:44.620> risk<00:14:44.830> factors 00:14:45.030 --> 00:14:45.040 align:start position:0% was so unsure about the risk factors 00:14:45.040 --> 00:14:47.400 align:start position:0% was so unsure about the risk factors will<00:14:45.820> proceed<00:14:46.270> here<00:14:46.540> on<00:14:46.660> the<00:14:46.810> basis<00:14:47.230> that 00:14:47.400 --> 00:14:47.410 align:start position:0% will proceed here on the basis that 00:14:47.410 --> 00:14:51.810 align:start position:0% will proceed here on the basis that we're<00:14:47.800> dealing<00:14:48.070> with<00:14:48.100> uncertainty<00:14:50.610> so<00:14:51.610> how<00:14:51.760> do 00:14:51.810 --> 00:14:51.820 align:start position:0% we're dealing with uncertainty so how do 00:14:51.820 --> 00:14:54.930 align:start position:0% we're dealing with uncertainty so how do we<00:14:52.000> make<00:14:52.210> a<00:14:52.240> rational<00:14:52.600> choice<00:14:53.640> when<00:14:54.640> we're<00:14:54.790> so 00:14:54.930 --> 00:14:54.940 align:start position:0% we make a rational choice when we're so 00:14:54.940 --> 00:14:57.390 align:start position:0% we make a rational choice when we're so uncertain<00:14:55.420> about<00:14:55.720> the<00:14:55.990> future<00:14:56.280> there<00:14:57.280> are 00:14:57.390 --> 00:14:57.400 align:start position:0% uncertain about the future there are 00:14:57.400 --> 00:15:00.120 align:start position:0% uncertain about the future there are four<00:14:57.760> possible<00:14:58.420> decision<00:14:58.900> rules<00:14:59.140> and<00:14:59.500> the 00:15:00.120 --> 00:15:00.130 align:start position:0% four possible decision rules and the 00:15:00.130 --> 00:15:02.220 align:start position:0% four possible decision rules and the first<00:15:00.370> one<00:15:00.610> we<00:15:00.730> use<00:15:00.940> is<00:15:01.420> the<00:15:01.690> principle<00:15:02.140> of 00:15:02.220 --> 00:15:02.230 align:start position:0% first one we use is the principle of 00:15:02.230 --> 00:15:05.580 align:start position:0% first one we use is the principle of insufficient<00:15:02.830> reason<00:15:03.240> that<00:15:04.240> says<00:15:04.630> we<00:15:05.260> have<00:15:05.380> no 00:15:05.580 --> 00:15:05.590 align:start position:0% insufficient reason that says we have no 00:15:05.590 --> 00:15:08.160 align:start position:0% insufficient reason that says we have no sufficient<00:15:06.130> reason<00:15:06.850> for<00:15:07.300> thinking<00:15:07.450> that<00:15:07.840> one 00:15:08.160 --> 00:15:08.170 align:start position:0% sufficient reason for thinking that one 00:15:08.170 --> 00:15:11.040 align:start position:0% sufficient reason for thinking that one outcome<00:15:08.410> is<00:15:08.890> any<00:15:09.400> more<00:15:09.820> or<00:15:10.120> less<00:15:10.150> likely<00:15:10.690> than 00:15:11.040 --> 00:15:11.050 align:start position:0% outcome is any more or less likely than 00:15:11.050 --> 00:15:14.250 align:start position:0% outcome is any more or less likely than any<00:15:11.200> other<00:15:11.940> so<00:15:12.940> we'll<00:15:13.090> attach<00:15:13.480> an<00:15:13.690> equal 00:15:14.250 --> 00:15:14.260 align:start position:0% any other so we'll attach an equal 00:15:14.260 --> 00:15:17.760 align:start position:0% any other so we'll attach an equal probability<00:15:14.730> to<00:15:15.730> each<00:15:16.030> of<00:15:16.240> the<00:15:16.360> outcomes<00:15:16.840> in 00:15:17.760 --> 00:15:17.770 align:start position:0% probability to each of the outcomes in 00:15:17.770 --> 00:15:19.820 align:start position:0% probability to each of the outcomes in our<00:15:17.950> case<00:15:18.220> we<00:15:18.730> have<00:15:18.880> three<00:15:19.180> possible<00:15:19.360> outcomes 00:15:19.820 --> 00:15:19.830 align:start position:0% our case we have three possible outcomes 00:15:19.830 --> 00:15:23.340 align:start position:0% our case we have three possible outcomes so<00:15:20.830> we'll<00:15:20.980> attach<00:15:21.280> a<00:15:21.490> risk<00:15:22.030> factor<00:15:22.570> of<00:15:22.720> one 00:15:23.340 --> 00:15:23.350 align:start position:0% so we'll attach a risk factor of one 00:15:23.350 --> 00:15:27.600 align:start position:0% so we'll attach a risk factor of one third<00:15:23.890> to<00:15:24.760> each<00:15:25.000> possible<00:15:25.420> outcome<00:15:26.610> to 00:15:27.600 --> 00:15:27.610 align:start position:0% third to each possible outcome to 00:15:27.610 --> 00:15:29.700 align:start position:0% third to each possible outcome to illustrate<00:15:28.030> the<00:15:28.150> approach<00:15:28.510> will<00:15:29.260> simplify 00:15:29.700 --> 00:15:29.710 align:start position:0% illustrate the approach will simplify 00:15:29.710 --> 00:15:31.800 align:start position:0% illustrate the approach will simplify and<00:15:30.160> have<00:15:30.550> just<00:15:30.790> three<00:15:31.060> possible<00:15:31.630> scenarios 00:15:31.800 --> 00:15:31.810 align:start position:0% and have just three possible scenarios 00:15:31.810 --> 00:15:35.520 align:start position:0% and have just three possible scenarios the<00:15:32.770> first<00:15:33.010> we've<00:15:33.250> labeled<00:15:33.840> optimistic<00:15:34.840> where 00:15:35.520 --> 00:15:35.530 align:start position:0% the first we've labeled optimistic where 00:15:35.530 --> 00:15:37.170 align:start position:0% the first we've labeled optimistic where we<00:15:35.650> assume<00:15:35.980> that<00:15:36.010> the<00:15:36.250> effects<00:15:36.640> of<00:15:36.760> global 00:15:37.170 --> 00:15:37.180 align:start position:0% we assume that the effects of global 00:15:37.180 --> 00:15:38.820 align:start position:0% we assume that the effects of global warming<00:15:37.210> will<00:15:37.780> be<00:15:37.900> relatively<00:15:38.320> small<00:15:38.800> and 00:15:38.820 --> 00:15:38.830 align:start position:0% warming will be relatively small and 00:15:38.830 --> 00:15:42.420 align:start position:0% warming will be relatively small and benign<00:15:40.380> pessimistic<00:15:41.380> where<00:15:41.890> we<00:15:41.980> assumed<00:15:42.310> that 00:15:42.420 --> 00:15:42.430 align:start position:0% benign pessimistic where we assumed that 00:15:42.430 --> 00:15:43.980 align:start position:0% benign pessimistic where we assumed that the<00:15:42.520> effects<00:15:42.820> of<00:15:42.940> global<00:15:43.330> warming<00:15:43.360> will<00:15:43.870> be 00:15:43.980 --> 00:15:43.990 align:start position:0% the effects of global warming will be 00:15:43.990 --> 00:15:47.400 align:start position:0% the effects of global warming will be relatively<00:15:44.380> large<00:15:44.830> and<00:15:45.160> damaging<00:15:45.640> and<00:15:46.410> medium 00:15:47.400 --> 00:15:47.410 align:start position:0% relatively large and damaging and medium 00:15:47.410 --> 00:15:49.830 align:start position:0% relatively large and damaging and medium where<00:15:47.650> we<00:15:47.800> assume<00:15:48.190> something<00:15:49.180> between<00:15:49.360> the 00:15:49.830 --> 00:15:49.840 align:start position:0% where we assume something between the 00:15:49.840 --> 00:15:52.750 align:start position:0% where we assume something between the other<00:15:49.960> two<00:15:50.110> possible<00:15:50.770> outcomes 00:15:52.750 --> 00:15:52.760 align:start position:0% other two possible outcomes 00:15:52.760 --> 00:15:56.380 align:start position:0% other two possible outcomes we<00:15:53.390> have<00:15:53.570> three<00:15:54.070> policy<00:15:55.120> possibilities<00:15:56.120> as 00:15:56.380 --> 00:15:56.390 align:start position:0% we have three policy possibilities as 00:15:56.390 --> 00:16:00.040 align:start position:0% we have three policy possibilities as well<00:15:56.860> strong<00:15:57.860> where<00:15:58.850> significant<00:15:59.570> policies 00:16:00.040 --> 00:16:00.050 align:start position:0% well strong where significant policies 00:16:00.050 --> 00:16:02.410 align:start position:0% well strong where significant policies are<00:16:00.230> taken<00:16:00.590> to<00:16:00.620> modify<00:16:01.250> presumed<00:16:01.850> global 00:16:02.410 --> 00:16:02.420 align:start position:0% are taken to modify presumed global 00:16:02.420 --> 00:16:06.430 align:start position:0% are taken to modify presumed global warming<00:16:02.810> damage<00:16:03.820> week<00:16:04.820> where<00:16:05.720> little<00:16:06.080> is<00:16:06.200> done 00:16:06.430 --> 00:16:06.440 align:start position:0% warming damage week where little is done 00:16:06.440 --> 00:16:10.690 align:start position:0% warming damage week where little is done and<00:16:07.630> moderate<00:16:08.630> where<00:16:09.290> some<00:16:09.590> policies<00:16:10.130> have<00:16:10.400> a 00:16:10.690 --> 00:16:10.700 align:start position:0% and moderate where some policies have a 00:16:10.700 --> 00:16:14.080 align:start position:0% and moderate where some policies have a fairly<00:16:10.940> limited<00:16:11.210> nature<00:16:11.630> are<00:16:12.050> undertaken<00:16:13.090> the 00:16:14.080 --> 00:16:14.090 align:start position:0% fairly limited nature are undertaken the 00:16:14.090 --> 00:16:16.510 align:start position:0% fairly limited nature are undertaken the values<00:16:14.540> in<00:16:14.570> the<00:16:14.810> table<00:16:14.840> show<00:16:15.530> the<00:16:15.740> annual 00:16:16.510 --> 00:16:16.520 align:start position:0% values in the table show the annual 00:16:16.520 --> 00:16:19.390 align:start position:0% values in the table show the annual percentage<00:16:17.210> loss<00:16:17.630> of<00:16:17.870> world<00:16:18.140> income<00:16:18.800> gross 00:16:19.390 --> 00:16:19.400 align:start position:0% percentage loss of world income gross 00:16:19.400 --> 00:16:22.000 align:start position:0% percentage loss of world income gross domestic<00:16:19.640> income<00:16:20.680> associated<00:16:21.680> with<00:16:21.860> each 00:16:22.000 --> 00:16:22.010 align:start position:0% domestic income associated with each 00:16:22.010 --> 00:16:24.700 align:start position:0% domestic income associated with each outcome<00:16:23.110> don't<00:16:24.110> be<00:16:24.230> fooled<00:16:24.470> by<00:16:24.560> the 00:16:24.700 --> 00:16:24.710 align:start position:0% outcome don't be fooled by the 00:16:24.710 --> 00:16:27.790 align:start position:0% outcome don't be fooled by the apparently<00:16:25.340> trivial<00:16:25.700> numbers<00:16:26.270> world<00:16:27.080> income 00:16:27.790 --> 00:16:27.800 align:start position:0% apparently trivial numbers world income 00:16:27.800 --> 00:16:30.850 align:start position:0% apparently trivial numbers world income amounts<00:16:28.370> to<00:16:28.520> many<00:16:28.790> trillions<00:16:29.270> of<00:16:29.660> dollars<00:16:29.900> so 00:16:30.850 --> 00:16:30.860 align:start position:0% amounts to many trillions of dollars so 00:16:30.860 --> 00:16:32.950 align:start position:0% amounts to many trillions of dollars so each<00:16:31.160> percentage<00:16:31.820> point<00:16:32.120> represents<00:16:32.870> a 00:16:32.950 --> 00:16:32.960 align:start position:0% each percentage point represents a 00:16:32.960 --> 00:16:36.960 align:start position:0% each percentage point represents a severe<00:16:33.560> loss<00:16:33.890> of<00:16:34.130> well-being 00:16:36.960 --> 00:16:36.970 align:start position:0% 00:16:36.970 --> 00:16:40.230 align:start position:0% notice<00:16:37.569> that<00:16:37.779> on<00:16:37.990> an<00:16:38.350> optimistic<00:16:38.949> scenario<00:16:39.730> it 00:16:40.230 --> 00:16:40.240 align:start position:0% notice that on an optimistic scenario it 00:16:40.240 --> 00:16:41.730 align:start position:0% notice that on an optimistic scenario it would<00:16:40.300> have<00:16:40.540> been<00:16:40.689> better<00:16:40.990> to<00:16:41.230> have<00:16:41.259> a<00:16:41.410> weak 00:16:41.730 --> 00:16:41.740 align:start position:0% would have been better to have a weak 00:16:41.740 --> 00:16:44.189 align:start position:0% would have been better to have a weak policy<00:16:42.310> or<00:16:42.459> maybe<00:16:42.699> do<00:16:42.970> nothing<00:16:43.389> this<00:16:44.050> is 00:16:44.189 --> 00:16:44.199 align:start position:0% policy or maybe do nothing this is 00:16:44.199 --> 00:16:46.019 align:start position:0% policy or maybe do nothing this is because<00:16:44.350> the<00:16:44.680> damage<00:16:44.949> would<00:16:45.310> have<00:16:45.430> been<00:16:45.610> small 00:16:46.019 --> 00:16:46.029 align:start position:0% because the damage would have been small 00:16:46.029 --> 00:16:48.449 align:start position:0% because the damage would have been small anyway<00:16:46.509> and<00:16:46.720> we've<00:16:47.110> wasted<00:16:47.379> scarce<00:16:47.949> resources 00:16:48.449 --> 00:16:48.459 align:start position:0% anyway and we've wasted scarce resources 00:16:48.459 --> 00:16:52.949 align:start position:0% anyway and we've wasted scarce resources dealing<00:16:49.209> with<00:16:49.480> it<00:16:49.680> unnecessarily<00:16:51.779> so<00:16:52.779> how<00:16:52.899> do 00:16:52.949 --> 00:16:52.959 align:start position:0% dealing with it unnecessarily so how do 00:16:52.959 --> 00:16:55.290 align:start position:0% dealing with it unnecessarily so how do we<00:16:53.079> make<00:16:53.290> a<00:16:53.319> rational<00:16:53.709> choice<00:16:54.189> of<00:16:54.430> policy<00:16:54.850> when 00:16:55.290 --> 00:16:55.300 align:start position:0% we make a rational choice of policy when 00:16:55.300 --> 00:16:56.850 align:start position:0% we make a rational choice of policy when we<00:16:55.420> don't<00:16:55.569> know<00:16:55.810> for<00:16:56.019> sure<00:16:56.079> the<00:16:56.439> seriousness 00:16:56.850 --> 00:16:56.860 align:start position:0% we don't know for sure the seriousness 00:16:56.860 --> 00:16:59.939 align:start position:0% we don't know for sure the seriousness of<00:16:57.129> the<00:16:57.279> damage<00:16:57.579> of<00:16:57.699> global<00:16:58.060> warming<00:16:58.949> we're 00:16:59.939 --> 00:16:59.949 align:start position:0% of the damage of global warming we're 00:16:59.949 --> 00:17:01.710 align:start position:0% of the damage of global warming we're looking<00:17:00.189> for<00:17:00.399> possible<00:17:00.699> strategies<00:17:01.480> for 00:17:01.710 --> 00:17:01.720 align:start position:0% looking for possible strategies for 00:17:01.720 --> 00:17:03.990 align:start position:0% looking for possible strategies for making<00:17:01.870> a<00:17:02.170> choice<00:17:02.379> under<00:17:02.680> uncertainty<00:17:03.000> the 00:17:03.990 --> 00:17:04.000 align:start position:0% making a choice under uncertainty the 00:17:04.000 --> 00:17:06.390 align:start position:0% making a choice under uncertainty the first<00:17:04.329> strategy<00:17:04.600> is<00:17:05.140> to<00:17:05.199> use<00:17:05.650> the<00:17:05.829> principle 00:17:06.390 --> 00:17:06.400 align:start position:0% first strategy is to use the principle 00:17:06.400 --> 00:17:09.449 align:start position:0% first strategy is to use the principle of<00:17:06.490> insufficient<00:17:07.209> reason<00:17:07.829> this<00:17:08.829> principle<00:17:09.220> is 00:17:09.449 --> 00:17:09.459 align:start position:0% of insufficient reason this principle is 00:17:09.459 --> 00:17:11.970 align:start position:0% of insufficient reason this principle is that<00:17:10.179> we<00:17:10.329> have<00:17:10.480> no<00:17:10.750> sufficient<00:17:11.199> reason<00:17:11.709> for 00:17:11.970 --> 00:17:11.980 align:start position:0% that we have no sufficient reason for 00:17:11.980 --> 00:17:14.130 align:start position:0% that we have no sufficient reason for thinking<00:17:12.130> one<00:17:12.579> outcome<00:17:12.789> to<00:17:13.510> be<00:17:13.539> any<00:17:13.870> more 00:17:14.130 --> 00:17:14.140 align:start position:0% thinking one outcome to be any more 00:17:14.140 --> 00:17:16.770 align:start position:0% thinking one outcome to be any more likely<00:17:14.620> than<00:17:14.770> any<00:17:14.890> other<00:17:15.039> and<00:17:15.459> on<00:17:16.089> this<00:17:16.270> basis 00:17:16.770 --> 00:17:16.780 align:start position:0% likely than any other and on this basis 00:17:16.780 --> 00:17:19.770 align:start position:0% likely than any other and on this basis we<00:17:16.809> attach<00:17:17.350> an<00:17:17.589> equal<00:17:18.100> probability<00:17:18.539> to<00:17:19.539> each 00:17:19.770 --> 00:17:19.780 align:start position:0% we attach an equal probability to each 00:17:19.780 --> 00:17:23.579 align:start position:0% we attach an equal probability to each outcome<00:17:20.610> in<00:17:21.610> our<00:17:21.789> case<00:17:22.059> it<00:17:22.089> will<00:17:22.390> be<00:17:22.589> one-third 00:17:23.579 --> 00:17:23.589 align:start position:0% outcome in our case it will be one-third 00:17:23.589 --> 00:17:26.549 align:start position:0% outcome in our case it will be one-third and<00:17:23.970> proceed<00:17:24.970> as<00:17:25.569> if<00:17:25.870> we<00:17:26.020> were<00:17:26.140> in<00:17:26.260> a<00:17:26.350> situation 00:17:26.549 --> 00:17:26.559 align:start position:0% and proceed as if we were in a situation 00:17:26.559 --> 00:17:30.660 align:start position:0% and proceed as if we were in a situation of<00:17:27.069> risk<00:17:27.400> with<00:17:27.939> these<00:17:28.120> known<00:17:28.480> possibilities 00:17:30.660 --> 00:17:30.670 align:start position:0% of risk with these known possibilities 00:17:30.670 --> 00:17:34.620 align:start position:0% of risk with these known possibilities so<00:17:31.360> the<00:17:31.510> expected<00:17:32.140> value<00:17:32.560> EV<00:17:33.430> of<00:17:33.670> a<00:17:34.300> strong 00:17:34.620 --> 00:17:34.630 align:start position:0% so the expected value EV of a strong 00:17:34.630 --> 00:17:41.850 align:start position:0% so the expected value EV of a strong policy<00:17:35.200> is<00:17:36.810> EV<00:17:37.810> will<00:17:38.050> be<00:17:38.580> 4.5<00:17:39.580> times<00:17:40.120> a<00:17:40.270> third<00:17:40.860> + 00:17:41.850 --> 00:17:41.860 align:start position:0% policy is EV will be 4.5 times a third + 00:17:41.860 --> 00:17:46.860 align:start position:0% policy is EV will be 4.5 times a third + 3.5<00:17:42.580> times<00:17:43.450> one-third<00:17:44.080> plus<00:17:45.010> 2.5<00:17:45.630> times<00:17:46.630> a 00:17:46.860 --> 00:17:46.870 align:start position:0% 3.5 times one-third plus 2.5 times a 00:17:46.870 --> 00:17:53.340 align:start position:0% 3.5 times one-third plus 2.5 times a third<00:17:48.120> which<00:17:49.120> equals<00:17:49.920> 3.5<00:17:51.840> so<00:17:52.840> with<00:17:52.990> a<00:17:53.020> strong 00:17:53.340 --> 00:17:53.350 align:start position:0% third which equals 3.5 so with a strong 00:17:53.350 --> 00:17:57.290 align:start position:0% third which equals 3.5 so with a strong policy<00:17:54.100> the<00:17:54.790> expected<00:17:55.600> value<00:17:56.230> is 00:17:57.290 --> 00:17:57.300 align:start position:0% policy the expected value is 00:17:57.300 --> 00:18:01.500 align:start position:0% policy the expected value is three-point-five<00:17:58.300> percent<00:17:58.330> of<00:17:59.160> loss<00:18:00.160> of<00:18:00.510> GDI 00:18:01.500 --> 00:18:01.510 align:start position:0% three-point-five percent of loss of GDI 00:18:01.510 --> 00:18:07.860 align:start position:0% three-point-five percent of loss of GDI annually<00:18:04.860> then<00:18:05.860> with<00:18:05.980> a<00:18:06.010> moderate<00:18:06.460> policy<00:18:07.000> the 00:18:07.860 --> 00:18:07.870 align:start position:0% annually then with a moderate policy the 00:18:07.870 --> 00:18:10.740 align:start position:0% annually then with a moderate policy the expected<00:18:08.260> value<00:18:08.830> will<00:18:09.010> be<00:18:09.210> 2.5<00:18:10.210> times<00:18:10.630> the 00:18:10.740 --> 00:18:10.750 align:start position:0% expected value will be 2.5 times the 00:18:10.750 --> 00:18:13.770 align:start position:0% expected value will be 2.5 times the third<00:18:10.990> plus<00:18:11.950> 3<00:18:12.220> point<00:18:12.430> 8<00:18:12.580> i'ma<00:18:12.910> 3rd<00:18:13.270> +<00:18:13.570> 3.5 00:18:13.770 --> 00:18:13.780 align:start position:0% third plus 3 point 8 i'ma 3rd + 3.5 00:18:13.780 --> 00:18:19.230 align:start position:0% third plus 3 point 8 i'ma 3rd + 3.5 times<00:18:14.560> a<00:18:14.680> third<00:18:14.920> which<00:18:15.700> equals<00:18:16.260> 3.0<00:18:17.260> and<00:18:18.240> with 00:18:19.230 --> 00:18:19.240 align:start position:0% times a third which equals 3.0 and with 00:18:19.240 --> 00:18:25.530 align:start position:0% times a third which equals 3.0 and with a<00:18:19.270> weak<00:18:19.480> policy<00:18:21.540> EV<00:18:22.540> comes<00:18:23.020> to<00:18:24.180> 2<00:18:25.180> point<00:18:25.420> 0 00:18:25.530 --> 00:18:25.540 align:start position:0% a weak policy EV comes to 2 point 0 00:18:25.540 --> 00:18:27.570 align:start position:0% a weak policy EV comes to 2 point 0 times<00:18:25.840> the<00:18:26.020> third<00:18:26.260> plus<00:18:26.620> 3<00:18:26.920> point<00:18:27.130> 8<00:18:27.280> i'ma 00:18:27.570 --> 00:18:27.580 align:start position:0% times the third plus 3 point 8 i'ma 00:18:27.580 --> 00:18:29.670 align:start position:0% times the third plus 3 point 8 i'ma third<00:18:27.970> plus<00:18:28.240> 7<00:18:28.630> point<00:18:28.840> 0<00:18:28.960> times<00:18:29.290> the<00:18:29.440> third 00:18:29.670 --> 00:18:29.680 align:start position:0% third plus 7 point 0 times the third 00:18:29.680 --> 00:18:32.790 align:start position:0% third plus 7 point 0 times the third which<00:18:30.370> equals<00:18:30.760> 4<00:18:31.260> so<00:18:32.260> given<00:18:32.470> that<00:18:32.560> we're 00:18:32.790 --> 00:18:32.800 align:start position:0% which equals 4 so given that we're 00:18:32.800 --> 00:18:35.790 align:start position:0% which equals 4 so given that we're trying<00:18:32.920> to<00:18:33.160> minimize<00:18:33.610> the<00:18:33.850> damage<00:18:34.030> a<00:18:34.800> moderate 00:18:35.790 --> 00:18:35.800 align:start position:0% trying to minimize the damage a moderate 00:18:35.800 --> 00:18:38.970 align:start position:0% trying to minimize the damage a moderate policy<00:18:36.310> is<00:18:36.430> optimal<00:18:36.910> taking<00:18:37.900> some<00:18:38.140> steps<00:18:38.290> but 00:18:38.970 --> 00:18:38.980 align:start position:0% policy is optimal taking some steps but 00:18:38.980 --> 00:18:40.950 align:start position:0% policy is optimal taking some steps but accepting<00:18:39.490> that<00:18:39.580> the<00:18:39.730> cost<00:18:40.000> of<00:18:40.180> some<00:18:40.420> steps<00:18:40.720> is 00:18:40.950 --> 00:18:40.960 align:start position:0% accepting that the cost of some steps is 00:18:40.960 --> 00:18:44.400 align:start position:0% accepting that the cost of some steps is greater<00:18:41.350> than<00:18:41.620> the<00:18:41.740> expected<00:18:42.010> benefits<00:18:43.410> of 00:18:44.400 --> 00:18:44.410 align:start position:0% greater than the expected benefits of 00:18:44.410 --> 00:18:46.410 align:start position:0% greater than the expected benefits of course<00:18:44.650> if<00:18:44.800> the<00:18:44.920> risk<00:18:45.100> factors<00:18:45.340> are<00:18:45.700> known<00:18:45.910> we 00:18:46.410 --> 00:18:46.420 align:start position:0% course if the risk factors are known we 00:18:46.420 --> 00:18:49.160 align:start position:0% course if the risk factors are known we could<00:18:46.600> work<00:18:46.780> out<00:18:46.990> an<00:18:47.200> EV<00:18:47.590> using<00:18:48.400> those<00:18:48.550> values 00:18:49.160 --> 00:18:49.170 align:start position:0% could work out an EV using those values 00:18:49.170 --> 00:18:51.750 align:start position:0% could work out an EV using those values so<00:18:50.170> if<00:18:50.230> it's<00:18:50.410> agreed<00:18:50.740> by<00:18:50.920> the<00:18:50.950> scientists<00:18:51.640> that 00:18:51.750 --> 00:18:51.760 align:start position:0% so if it's agreed by the scientists that 00:18:51.760 --> 00:18:54.150 align:start position:0% so if it's agreed by the scientists that the<00:18:51.910> pessimistic<00:18:52.600> forecasts<00:18:53.140> is<00:18:53.440> much<00:18:53.950> more 00:18:54.150 --> 00:18:54.160 align:start position:0% the pessimistic forecasts is much more 00:18:54.160 --> 00:18:57.720 align:start position:0% the pessimistic forecasts is much more likely<00:18:54.630> we<00:18:55.630> could<00:18:55.830> rework<00:18:56.830> using<00:18:57.550> these 00:18:57.720 --> 00:18:57.730 align:start position:0% likely we could rework using these 00:18:57.730 --> 00:19:03.289 align:start position:0% likely we could rework using these weights<00:18:58.480> to<00:18:59.320> get<00:18:59.500> a<00:18:59.530> new<00:18:59.860> EV 00:19:03.289 --> 00:19:03.299 align:start position:0% 00:19:03.299 --> 00:19:04.759 align:start position:0% and<00:19:03.389> possibility<00:19:03.989> is<00:19:04.110> suitable<00:19:04.499> for<00:19:04.559> the 00:19:04.759 --> 00:19:04.769 align:start position:0% and possibility is suitable for the 00:19:04.769 --> 00:19:07.609 align:start position:0% and possibility is suitable for the optimist<00:19:05.489> this<00:19:06.239> is<00:19:06.389> sometimes<00:19:06.600> called<00:19:06.929> a<00:19:07.169> maxi 00:19:07.609 --> 00:19:07.619 align:start position:0% optimist this is sometimes called a maxi 00:19:07.619 --> 00:19:10.399 align:start position:0% optimist this is sometimes called a maxi max<00:19:07.830> policy<00:19:08.659> assume<00:19:09.659> that<00:19:09.840> the<00:19:09.960> best<00:19:10.200> will 00:19:10.399 --> 00:19:10.409 align:start position:0% max policy assume that the best will 00:19:10.409 --> 00:19:12.919 align:start position:0% max policy assume that the best will always<00:19:10.679> turn<00:19:10.889> up<00:19:10.950> so<00:19:11.909> looking<00:19:12.239> at<00:19:12.360> our<00:19:12.389> table 00:19:12.919 --> 00:19:12.929 align:start position:0% always turn up so looking at our table 00:19:12.929 --> 00:19:16.119 align:start position:0% always turn up so looking at our table again<00:19:13.200> here<00:19:13.950> we<00:19:14.129> presume<00:19:14.610> that<00:19:14.820> if<00:19:15.419> we<00:19:15.539> pick 00:19:16.119 --> 00:19:16.129 align:start position:0% again here we presume that if we pick 00:19:16.129 --> 00:19:20.119 align:start position:0% again here we presume that if we pick strong<00:19:17.129> as<00:19:17.549> our<00:19:17.820> policy<00:19:18.379> then<00:19:19.379> we'll<00:19:19.590> lose<00:19:19.860> the 00:19:20.119 --> 00:19:20.129 align:start position:0% strong as our policy then we'll lose the 00:19:20.129 --> 00:19:27.529 align:start position:0% strong as our policy then we'll lose the least<00:19:20.429> income<00:19:21.210> only<00:19:21.980> 2.5<00:19:24.739> for<00:19:25.739> moderate<00:19:26.539> will 00:19:27.529 --> 00:19:27.539 align:start position:0% least income only 2.5 for moderate will 00:19:27.539 --> 00:19:31.340 align:start position:0% least income only 2.5 for moderate will also<00:19:27.869> lose<00:19:28.789> 2.5<00:19:29.789> because<00:19:30.389> we<00:19:30.629> assume<00:19:31.049> an 00:19:31.340 --> 00:19:31.350 align:start position:0% also lose 2.5 because we assume an 00:19:31.350 --> 00:19:40.669 align:start position:0% also lose 2.5 because we assume an optimistic<00:19:32.009> outcome<00:19:32.840> and<00:19:35.239> for<00:19:36.239> weak<00:19:37.460> 2.0<00:19:39.679> so 00:19:40.669 --> 00:19:40.679 align:start position:0% optimistic outcome and for weak 2.0 so 00:19:40.679 --> 00:19:42.580 align:start position:0% optimistic outcome and for weak 2.0 so given<00:19:40.889> our<00:19:41.100> optimistic<00:19:41.759> assumptions 00:19:42.580 --> 00:19:42.590 align:start position:0% given our optimistic assumptions 00:19:42.590 --> 00:19:44.690 align:start position:0% given our optimistic assumptions minimizing<00:19:43.590> the<00:19:43.679> loss<00:19:43.710> requires<00:19:44.429> us<00:19:44.669> to 00:19:44.690 --> 00:19:44.700 align:start position:0% minimizing the loss requires us to 00:19:44.700 --> 00:19:47.779 align:start position:0% minimizing the loss requires us to choose<00:19:45.029> a<00:19:45.090> week<00:19:45.600> policy<00:19:46.169> option<00:19:46.529> will<00:19:47.340> choose 00:19:47.779 --> 00:19:47.789 align:start position:0% choose a week policy option will choose 00:19:47.789 --> 00:19:51.379 align:start position:0% choose a week policy option will choose that<00:19:48.119> and<00:19:49.190> optimistically<00:19:50.190> hope<00:19:50.580> that<00:19:51.210> we 00:19:51.379 --> 00:19:51.389 align:start position:0% that and optimistically hope that we 00:19:51.389 --> 00:19:57.610 align:start position:0% that and optimistically hope that we only<00:19:51.659> lose<00:19:52.159> two<00:19:53.159> percent<00:19:53.639> of<00:19:53.909> GD<00:19:54.690> I<00:19:54.720> per<00:19:55.169> annum 00:19:57.610 --> 00:19:57.620 align:start position:0% 00:19:57.620 --> 00:19:59.620 align:start position:0% a<00:19:57.680> third<00:19:58.370> possible<00:19:58.850> strategy<00:19:59.360> is<00:19:59.480> suitable 00:19:59.620 --> 00:19:59.630 align:start position:0% a third possible strategy is suitable 00:19:59.630 --> 00:20:02.290 align:start position:0% a third possible strategy is suitable for<00:19:59.900> the<00:20:00.110> pessimist<00:20:01.120> assuming<00:20:02.120> that<00:20:02.210> the 00:20:02.290 --> 00:20:02.300 align:start position:0% for the pessimist assuming that the 00:20:02.300 --> 00:20:06.040 align:start position:0% for the pessimist assuming that the worst<00:20:02.570> will<00:20:02.930> always<00:20:03.200> turn<00:20:03.410> up<00:20:04.630> so<00:20:05.630> looking<00:20:05.930> at 00:20:06.040 --> 00:20:06.050 align:start position:0% worst will always turn up so looking at 00:20:06.050 --> 00:20:08.560 align:start position:0% worst will always turn up so looking at our<00:20:06.080> table<00:20:06.650> again<00:20:06.980> here<00:20:07.309> we<00:20:07.340> assume<00:20:07.550> that<00:20:08.030> if 00:20:08.560 --> 00:20:08.570 align:start position:0% our table again here we assume that if 00:20:08.570 --> 00:20:13.120 align:start position:0% our table again here we assume that if we<00:20:08.690> pick<00:20:08.930> strong<00:20:09.460> then<00:20:10.460> we<00:20:10.610> may<00:20:10.880> lose<00:20:11.800> 4.5<00:20:12.800> that 00:20:13.120 --> 00:20:13.130 align:start position:0% we pick strong then we may lose 4.5 that 00:20:13.130 --> 00:20:16.110 align:start position:0% we pick strong then we may lose 4.5 that would<00:20:13.309> be<00:20:13.430> the<00:20:13.610> worst<00:20:14.030> possible<00:20:14.470> loss<00:20:15.470> of 00:20:16.110 --> 00:20:16.120 align:start position:0% would be the worst possible loss of 00:20:16.120 --> 00:20:20.770 align:start position:0% would be the worst possible loss of income<00:20:17.120> for<00:20:18.280> moderate<00:20:19.280> we<00:20:19.460> might<00:20:19.640> lose<00:20:19.880> 3.5 00:20:20.770 --> 00:20:20.780 align:start position:0% income for moderate we might lose 3.5 00:20:20.780 --> 00:20:26.710 align:start position:0% income for moderate we might lose 3.5 and<00:20:21.340> for<00:20:22.340> week<00:20:22.580> as<00:20:22.850> much<00:20:23.090> as<00:20:23.270> seven<00:20:23.690> percent<00:20:25.720> so 00:20:26.710 --> 00:20:26.720 align:start position:0% and for week as much as seven percent so 00:20:26.720 --> 00:20:29.380 align:start position:0% and for week as much as seven percent so minimizing<00:20:27.380> the<00:20:27.740> loss<00:20:28.120> requires<00:20:29.120> us<00:20:29.360> to 00:20:29.380 --> 00:20:29.390 align:start position:0% minimizing the loss requires us to 00:20:29.390 --> 00:20:33.790 align:start position:0% minimizing the loss requires us to choose<00:20:29.809> in<00:20:30.290> this<00:20:30.980> case<00:20:31.250> a<00:20:31.660> moderate<00:20:32.800> policy 00:20:33.790 --> 00:20:33.800 align:start position:0% choose in this case a moderate policy 00:20:33.800 --> 00:20:37.360 align:start position:0% choose in this case a moderate policy option<00:20:35.050> because<00:20:36.050> the<00:20:36.260> worst<00:20:36.559> we<00:20:36.950> can<00:20:37.160> then 00:20:37.360 --> 00:20:37.370 align:start position:0% option because the worst we can then 00:20:37.370 --> 00:20:43.900 align:start position:0% option because the worst we can then lose<00:20:37.670> is<00:20:38.740> 3.5<00:20:39.740> percent<00:20:40.220> of<00:20:40.460> annual<00:20:40.910> GDI 00:20:43.900 --> 00:20:43.910 align:start position:0% 00:20:43.910 --> 00:20:47.890 align:start position:0% so<00:20:44.630> that's<00:20:44.810> our<00:20:45.130> maximum<00:20:46.210> strategy<00:20:47.210> as<00:20:47.360> it's 00:20:47.890 --> 00:20:47.900 align:start position:0% so that's our maximum strategy as it's 00:20:47.900 --> 00:20:52.610 align:start position:0% so that's our maximum strategy as it's called 00:20:52.610 --> 00:20:52.620 align:start position:0% 00:20:52.620 --> 00:20:54.790 align:start position:0% this<00:20:53.520> one<00:20:53.760> more 00:20:54.790 --> 00:20:54.800 align:start position:0% this one more 00:20:54.800 --> 00:20:57.880 align:start position:0% this one more to<00:20:54.860> consider<00:20:55.810> with<00:20:56.810> an<00:20:56.930> issue<00:20:57.080> like<00:20:57.350> climate 00:20:57.880 --> 00:20:57.890 align:start position:0% to consider with an issue like climate 00:20:57.890 --> 00:21:00.490 align:start position:0% to consider with an issue like climate change<00:20:57.920> if<00:20:58.490> we<00:20:59.330> get<00:20:59.540> it<00:20:59.660> wrong<00:20:59.960> it<00:21:00.200> could<00:21:00.350> be 00:21:00.490 --> 00:21:00.500 align:start position:0% change if we get it wrong it could be 00:21:00.500 --> 00:21:02.980 align:start position:0% change if we get it wrong it could be extremely<00:21:00.830> serious<00:21:01.490> so<00:21:02.150> we<00:21:02.300> may<00:21:02.540> want<00:21:02.870> a 00:21:02.980 --> 00:21:02.990 align:start position:0% extremely serious so we may want a 00:21:02.990 --> 00:21:07.120 align:start position:0% extremely serious so we may want a particularly<00:21:03.620> cautious<00:21:04.070> approach<00:21:05.950> then<00:21:06.950> we 00:21:07.120 --> 00:21:07.130 align:start position:0% particularly cautious approach then we 00:21:07.130 --> 00:21:09.760 align:start position:0% particularly cautious approach then we might<00:21:07.280> want<00:21:07.520> to<00:21:07.640> use<00:21:07.820> the<00:21:08.140> minimax<00:21:09.140> regret 00:21:09.760 --> 00:21:09.770 align:start position:0% might want to use the minimax regret 00:21:09.770 --> 00:21:13.090 align:start position:0% might want to use the minimax regret approach<00:21:10.780> the<00:21:11.780> essence<00:21:12.110> of<00:21:12.230> this<00:21:12.380> approach<00:21:12.710> is 00:21:13.090 --> 00:21:13.100 align:start position:0% approach the essence of this approach is 00:21:13.100 --> 00:21:16.120 align:start position:0% approach the essence of this approach is to<00:21:14.030> look<00:21:14.300> at<00:21:14.510> the<00:21:14.690> extent<00:21:15.230> to<00:21:15.350> which<00:21:15.470> we<00:21:15.890> might 00:21:16.120 --> 00:21:16.130 align:start position:0% to look at the extent to which we might 00:21:16.130 --> 00:21:19.000 align:start position:0% to look at the extent to which we might regret<00:21:16.700> any<00:21:17.410> particular<00:21:18.410> choice<00:21:18.650> we've<00:21:18.980> made 00:21:19.000 --> 00:21:19.010 align:start position:0% regret any particular choice we've made 00:21:19.010 --> 00:21:24.010 align:start position:0% regret any particular choice we've made and<00:21:19.760> then<00:21:20.690> pick<00:21:21.110> the<00:21:21.140> option<00:21:21.710> which<00:21:23.020> minimizes 00:21:24.010 --> 00:21:24.020 align:start position:0% and then pick the option which minimizes 00:21:24.020 --> 00:21:29.320 align:start position:0% and then pick the option which minimizes the<00:21:24.530> regret<00:21:24.950> that<00:21:25.190> will<00:21:25.430> have<00:21:28.030> you're<00:21:29.030> turning 00:21:29.320 --> 00:21:29.330 align:start position:0% the regret that will have you're turning 00:21:29.330 --> 00:21:32.290 align:start position:0% the regret that will have you're turning to<00:21:29.420> our<00:21:29.450> table<00:21:29.900> we<00:21:30.020> first<00:21:30.290> construct<00:21:30.770> a<00:21:31.300> regret 00:21:32.290 --> 00:21:32.300 align:start position:0% to our table we first construct a regret 00:21:32.300 --> 00:21:38.470 align:start position:0% to our table we first construct a regret matrix<00:21:33.280> for<00:21:34.280> each<00:21:34.460> policy<00:21:36.160> we<00:21:37.160> ask<00:21:37.400> once<00:21:38.210> the 00:21:38.470 --> 00:21:38.480 align:start position:0% matrix for each policy we ask once the 00:21:38.480 --> 00:21:43.600 align:start position:0% matrix for each policy we ask once the maximum<00:21:39.320> regret<00:21:39.890> that<00:21:40.850> we<00:21:41.090> could<00:21:41.390> have<00:21:42.520> if<00:21:43.520> we 00:21:43.600 --> 00:21:43.610 align:start position:0% maximum regret that we could have if we 00:21:43.610 --> 00:21:46.120 align:start position:0% maximum regret that we could have if we pick<00:21:43.910> a<00:21:43.940> strong<00:21:44.330> option<00:21:44.750> and<00:21:44.960> the<00:21:45.710> optimistic 00:21:46.120 --> 00:21:46.130 align:start position:0% pick a strong option and the optimistic 00:21:46.130 --> 00:21:49.870 align:start position:0% pick a strong option and the optimistic forecast<00:21:46.820> is<00:21:47.060> correct<00:21:47.290> we<00:21:48.290> lose<00:21:48.620> four<00:21:49.520> point 00:21:49.870 --> 00:21:49.880 align:start position:0% forecast is correct we lose four point 00:21:49.880 --> 00:21:52.690 align:start position:0% forecast is correct we lose four point five<00:21:50.180> percent<00:21:50.690> of<00:21:50.840> GD<00:21:51.170> I<00:21:51.200> when<00:21:52.100> by<00:21:52.280> picking 00:21:52.690 --> 00:21:52.700 align:start position:0% five percent of GD I when by picking 00:21:52.700 --> 00:21:56.670 align:start position:0% five percent of GD I when by picking week<00:21:52.940> we<00:21:53.900> could<00:21:54.110> have<00:21:54.230> lost<00:21:54.440> only<00:21:54.920> two<00:21:55.430> percent 00:21:56.670 --> 00:21:56.680 align:start position:0% week we could have lost only two percent 00:21:56.680 --> 00:22:00.490 align:start position:0% week we could have lost only two percent the<00:21:57.680> regret<00:21:58.130> we<00:21:58.340> have<00:21:58.550> is<00:21:58.730> their<00:21:58.970> poor<00:21:59.500> 2.5% 00:22:00.490 --> 00:22:00.500 align:start position:0% the regret we have is their poor 2.5% 00:22:00.500 --> 00:22:03.280 align:start position:0% the regret we have is their poor 2.5% the<00:22:01.400> difference<00:22:01.940> between<00:22:02.360> what<00:22:02.570> we<00:22:02.720> got<00:22:03.020> and 00:22:03.280 --> 00:22:03.290 align:start position:0% the difference between what we got and 00:22:03.290 --> 00:22:07.570 align:start position:0% the difference between what we got and what<00:22:03.890> we<00:22:04.070> could<00:22:04.340> have<00:22:04.460> had<00:22:05.860> if<00:22:06.860> average<00:22:07.250> turns 00:22:07.570 --> 00:22:07.580 align:start position:0% what we could have had if average turns 00:22:07.580 --> 00:22:10.720 align:start position:0% what we could have had if average turns up<00:22:07.880> we<00:22:08.450> regret<00:22:08.660> picking<00:22:09.140> strong<00:22:09.740> but<00:22:10.280> only<00:22:10.550> by 00:22:10.720 --> 00:22:10.730 align:start position:0% up we regret picking strong but only by 00:22:10.730 --> 00:22:15.180 align:start position:0% up we regret picking strong but only by one<00:22:11.330> half<00:22:11.750> of<00:22:12.050> one<00:22:12.260> percent<00:22:12.290> of<00:22:12.770> GD<00:22:13.070> I<00:22:13.420> if 00:22:15.180 --> 00:22:15.190 align:start position:0% one half of one percent of GD I if 00:22:15.190 --> 00:22:17.530 align:start position:0% one half of one percent of GD I if pessimistic<00:22:16.190> turns<00:22:16.430> up<00:22:16.640> there'll<00:22:17.270> be<00:22:17.300> no 00:22:17.530 --> 00:22:17.540 align:start position:0% pessimistic turns up there'll be no 00:22:17.540 --> 00:22:21.280 align:start position:0% pessimistic turns up there'll be no regret<00:22:17.900> at<00:22:18.050> all<00:22:18.200> I<00:22:19.510> can<00:22:20.510> perform<00:22:20.840> that<00:22:21.020> same 00:22:21.280 --> 00:22:21.290 align:start position:0% regret at all I can perform that same 00:22:21.290 --> 00:22:24.550 align:start position:0% regret at all I can perform that same operation<00:22:22.070> for<00:22:22.730> moderate<00:22:23.180> and<00:22:23.390> weak<00:22:23.960> policies 00:22:24.550 --> 00:22:24.560 align:start position:0% operation for moderate and weak policies 00:22:24.560 --> 00:22:29.760 align:start position:0% operation for moderate and weak policies and<00:22:25.240> then<00:22:26.240> that<00:22:26.390> gives<00:22:26.600> us<00:22:26.870> our<00:22:27.080> regret<00:22:28.070> matrix 00:22:29.760 --> 00:22:29.770 align:start position:0% and then that gives us our regret matrix 00:22:29.770 --> 00:22:33.970 align:start position:0% and then that gives us our regret matrix our<00:22:31.030> policy<00:22:32.030> strategy<00:22:32.750> is<00:22:32.870> now<00:22:33.080> to<00:22:33.140> minimize 00:22:33.970 --> 00:22:33.980 align:start position:0% our policy strategy is now to minimize 00:22:33.980 --> 00:22:37.120 align:start position:0% our policy strategy is now to minimize the<00:22:34.310> maximum<00:22:34.520> regret<00:22:35.270> if<00:22:35.510> we<00:22:36.440> choose<00:22:36.650> strong 00:22:37.120 --> 00:22:37.130 align:start position:0% the maximum regret if we choose strong 00:22:37.130 --> 00:22:40.000 align:start position:0% the maximum regret if we choose strong our<00:22:37.460> greatest<00:22:38.150> regret<00:22:38.750> would<00:22:39.500> be<00:22:39.710> that<00:22:39.890> it's 00:22:40.000 --> 00:22:40.010 align:start position:0% our greatest regret would be that it's 00:22:40.010 --> 00:22:42.510 align:start position:0% our greatest regret would be that it's cost<00:22:40.280> us<00:22:40.460> two<00:22:40.760> point<00:22:41.030> five<00:22:41.210> percent<00:22:41.660> of<00:22:41.780> GD<00:22:42.140> I 00:22:42.510 --> 00:22:42.520 align:start position:0% cost us two point five percent of GD I 00:22:42.520 --> 00:22:47.200 align:start position:0% cost us two point five percent of GD I for<00:22:43.520> moderate<00:22:44.170> one<00:22:45.170> percent<00:22:45.590> and<00:22:46.000> for<00:22:47.000> week 00:22:47.200 --> 00:22:47.210 align:start position:0% for moderate one percent and for week 00:22:47.210 --> 00:22:51.250 align:start position:0% for moderate one percent and for week four<00:22:48.200> point<00:22:48.470> five<00:22:48.680> percent<00:22:49.570> so<00:22:50.570> minimizing 00:22:51.250 --> 00:22:51.260 align:start position:0% four point five percent so minimizing 00:22:51.260 --> 00:22:54.220 align:start position:0% four point five percent so minimizing the<00:22:51.650> maximum<00:22:52.160> regret<00:22:52.580> requires<00:22:53.510> us<00:22:53.750> to<00:22:53.780> choose 00:22:54.220 --> 00:22:54.230 align:start position:0% the maximum regret requires us to choose 00:22:54.230 --> 00:22:56.740 align:start position:0% the maximum regret requires us to choose in<00:22:54.620> this<00:22:54.890> case<00:22:55.160> and<00:22:55.430> under<00:22:56.030> these<00:22:56.360> assumptions 00:22:56.740 --> 00:22:56.750 align:start position:0% in this case and under these assumptions 00:22:56.750 --> 00:23:01.840 align:start position:0% in this case and under these assumptions a<00:22:57.310> moderate<00:22:58.310> policy 00:23:01.840 --> 00:23:01.850 align:start position:0% 00:23:01.850 --> 00:23:05.029 align:start position:0% of<00:23:02.850> course<00:23:03.780> the<00:23:03.900> policy<00:23:04.289> recommendations 00:23:05.029 --> 00:23:05.039 align:start position:0% of course the policy recommendations 00:23:05.039 --> 00:23:07.360 align:start position:0% of course the policy recommendations we've<00:23:05.220> come<00:23:05.460> up<00:23:05.490> with<00:23:05.720> depend<00:23:06.720> upon<00:23:06.840> the 00:23:07.360 --> 00:23:07.370 align:start position:0% we've come up with depend upon the 00:23:07.370 --> 00:23:10.690 align:start position:0% we've come up with depend upon the uncertain<00:23:08.370> assumptions<00:23:09.059> that<00:23:09.330> we've<00:23:09.510> made 00:23:10.690 --> 00:23:10.700 align:start position:0% uncertain assumptions that we've made 00:23:10.700 --> 00:23:14.860 align:start position:0% uncertain assumptions that we've made there<00:23:11.700> isn't<00:23:11.970> a<00:23:12.090> right<00:23:12.440> answer<00:23:13.440> that<00:23:14.010> we<00:23:14.160> found 00:23:14.860 --> 00:23:14.870 align:start position:0% there isn't a right answer that we found 00:23:14.870 --> 00:23:18.320 align:start position:0% there isn't a right answer that we found but<00:23:15.870> if<00:23:15.960> we<00:23:16.110> understand<00:23:16.650> the<00:23:16.799> statistics<00:23:17.429> we 00:23:18.320 --> 00:23:18.330 align:start position:0% but if we understand the statistics we 00:23:18.330 --> 00:23:21.020 align:start position:0% but if we understand the statistics we have<00:23:18.510> an<00:23:18.630> approach<00:23:19.169> an<00:23:19.559> approach<00:23:20.340> which<00:23:20.850> is 00:23:21.020 --> 00:23:21.030 align:start position:0% have an approach an approach which is 00:23:21.030 --> 00:23:23.810 align:start position:0% have an approach an approach which is suitable<00:23:21.360> for<00:23:21.809> examining<00:23:22.710> problems<00:23:23.220> either 00:23:23.810 --> 00:23:23.820 align:start position:0% suitable for examining problems either 00:23:23.820 --> 00:23:27.110 align:start position:0% suitable for examining problems either in<00:23:24.179> the<00:23:24.299> public<00:23:24.780> or<00:23:24.929> the<00:23:24.990> private<00:23:25.620> sector<00:23:26.429> when 00:23:27.110 --> 00:23:27.120 align:start position:0% in the public or the private sector when 00:23:27.120 --> 00:23:31.570 align:start position:0% in the public or the private sector when there<00:23:27.299> are<00:23:27.419> issues<00:23:27.450> of<00:23:27.780> uncertainty<00:23:28.590> involved 00:23:31.570 --> 00:23:31.580 align:start position:0% 00:23:31.580 --> 00:23:34.159 align:start position:0% scientists<00:23:32.580> continue<00:23:33.030> to<00:23:33.179> refine<00:23:33.539> climate 00:23:34.159 --> 00:23:34.169 align:start position:0% scientists continue to refine climate 00:23:34.169 --> 00:23:37.010 align:start position:0% scientists continue to refine climate change<00:23:34.409> models<00:23:35.059> the<00:23:36.059> evidence<00:23:36.330> for<00:23:36.539> global 00:23:37.010 --> 00:23:37.020 align:start position:0% change models the evidence for global 00:23:37.020 --> 00:23:39.169 align:start position:0% change models the evidence for global changes<00:23:37.470> continues<00:23:38.340> to<00:23:38.490> mount<00:23:38.700> and 00:23:39.169 --> 00:23:39.179 align:start position:0% changes continues to mount and 00:23:39.179 --> 00:23:41.659 align:start position:0% changes continues to mount and scientists<00:23:40.049> are<00:23:40.140> beginning<00:23:40.230> to<00:23:40.650> document<00:23:41.220> not 00:23:41.659 --> 00:23:41.669 align:start position:0% scientists are beginning to document not 00:23:41.669 --> 00:23:44.120 align:start position:0% scientists are beginning to document not just<00:23:41.940> the<00:23:42.090> global<00:23:42.480> effects<00:23:43.020> but<00:23:43.710> the<00:23:43.860> small 00:23:44.120 --> 00:23:44.130 align:start position:0% just the global effects but the small 00:23:44.130 --> 00:23:45.799 align:start position:0% just the global effects but the small local<00:23:44.549> changes<00:23:44.789> that<00:23:45.179> enhance<00:23:45.539> our 00:23:45.799 --> 00:23:45.809 align:start position:0% local changes that enhance our 00:23:45.809 --> 00:23:47.630 align:start position:0% local changes that enhance our understanding<00:23:45.840> of<00:23:46.620> locally<00:23:47.070> effects<00:23:47.490> and 00:23:47.630 --> 00:23:47.640 align:start position:0% understanding of locally effects and 00:23:47.640 --> 00:23:51.460 align:start position:0% understanding of locally effects and consequences<00:23:47.820> as<00:23:49.460> our<00:23:50.460> knowledge<00:23:50.880> improves 00:23:51.460 --> 00:23:51.470 align:start position:0% consequences as our knowledge improves 00:23:51.470 --> 00:23:55.430 align:start position:0% consequences as our knowledge improves the<00:23:52.470> uncertainty<00:23:53.159> may<00:23:53.370> well<00:23:53.640> diminish<00:23:54.150> and<00:23:54.440> it 00:23:55.430 --> 00:23:55.440 align:start position:0% the uncertainty may well diminish and it 00:23:55.440 --> 00:23:57.260 align:start position:0% the uncertainty may well diminish and it will<00:23:55.620> be<00:23:55.740> possible<00:23:55.980> to<00:23:56.370> make<00:23:56.549> more<00:23:56.760> precise 00:23:57.260 --> 00:23:57.270 align:start position:0% will be possible to make more precise 00:23:57.270 --> 00:24:00.770 align:start position:0% will be possible to make more precise policy<00:23:57.870> recommendations<00:23:59.059> using<00:24:00.059> statistical 00:24:00.770 --> 00:24:00.780 align:start position:0% policy recommendations using statistical 00:24:00.780 --> 00:24:03.529 align:start position:0% policy recommendations using statistical methods<00:24:01.230> like<00:24:01.919> these<00:24:02.159> we've<00:24:02.400> examined<00:24:02.850> and 00:24:03.529 --> 00:24:03.539 align:start position:0% methods like these we've examined and 00:24:03.539 --> 00:24:05.210 align:start position:0% methods like these we've examined and there's<00:24:04.020> always<00:24:04.169> the<00:24:04.409> possibility<00:24:04.559> that<00:24:05.070> we 00:24:05.210 --> 00:24:05.220 align:start position:0% there's always the possibility that we 00:24:05.220 --> 00:24:07.640 align:start position:0% there's always the possibility that we might<00:24:05.370> seem<00:24:05.640> really<00:24:06.030> very<00:24:06.299> large<00:24:06.720> changes<00:24:07.380> and 00:24:07.640 --> 00:24:07.650 align:start position:0% might seem really very large changes and 00:24:07.650 --> 00:24:08.659 align:start position:0% might seem really very large changes and I<00:24:07.710> think<00:24:07.919> it<00:24:08.010> is<00:24:08.039> sort<00:24:08.220> of<00:24:08.250> risk<00:24:08.549> management 00:24:08.659 --> 00:24:08.669 align:start position:0% I think it is sort of risk management 00:24:08.669 --> 00:24:11.690 align:start position:0% I think it is sort of risk management sense<00:24:09.650> those<00:24:10.650> large<00:24:10.919> changes<00:24:11.370> are<00:24:11.549> worth 00:24:11.690 --> 00:24:11.700 align:start position:0% sense those large changes are worth 00:24:11.700 --> 00:24:13.820 align:start position:0% sense those large changes are worth avoiding<00:24:11.909> and<00:24:12.450> the<00:24:12.990> worlds<00:24:13.289> of<00:24:13.350> stress<00:24:13.620> system 00:24:13.820 --> 00:24:13.830 align:start position:0% avoiding and the worlds of stress system 00:24:13.830 --> 00:24:15.680 align:start position:0% avoiding and the worlds of stress system already<00:24:14.070> I<00:24:14.250> think<00:24:14.490> like<00:24:14.669> it's<00:24:15.210> not<00:24:15.390> just 00:24:15.680 --> 00:24:15.690 align:start position:0% already I think like it's not just 00:24:15.690 --> 00:24:18.409 align:start position:0% already I think like it's not just climate<00:24:15.870> change<00:24:16.340> impacting<00:24:17.340> a<00:24:17.490> world<00:24:18.270> without 00:24:18.409 --> 00:24:18.419 align:start position:0% climate change impacting a world without 00:24:18.419 --> 00:24:20.570 align:start position:0% climate change impacting a world without other<00:24:18.750> problems<00:24:19.169> it<00:24:19.559> could<00:24:19.830> be<00:24:20.039> the<00:24:20.190> straw 00:24:20.570 --> 00:24:20.580 align:start position:0% other problems it could be the straw 00:24:20.580 --> 00:24:22.730 align:start position:0% other problems it could be the straw that<00:24:20.610> breaks<00:24:21.000> the<00:24:21.090> camel's<00:24:21.510> back<00:24:21.740> I'm 00:24:22.730 --> 00:24:22.740 align:start position:0% that breaks the camel's back I'm 00:24:22.740 --> 00:24:27.289 align:start position:0% that breaks the camel's back I'm regularly<00:24:23.460> surprised<00:24:23.940> by<00:24:24.929> how<00:24:25.559> sensitive<00:24:26.299> the 00:24:27.289 --> 00:24:27.299 align:start position:0% regularly surprised by how sensitive the 00:24:27.299 --> 00:24:31.520 align:start position:0% regularly surprised by how sensitive the Earth<00:24:27.450> system<00:24:28.169> the<00:24:28.559> biosphere<00:24:29.159> is<00:24:29.429> to<00:24:30.390> what<00:24:31.380> we 00:24:31.520 --> 00:24:31.530 align:start position:0% Earth system the biosphere is to what we 00:24:31.530 --> 00:24:33.799 align:start position:0% Earth system the biosphere is to what we might<00:24:31.710> think<00:24:31.770> of<00:24:32.130> as<00:24:32.250> pretty<00:24:32.760> small<00:24:33.179> changes 00:24:33.799 --> 00:24:33.809 align:start position:0% might think of as pretty small changes 00:24:33.809 --> 00:24:36.770 align:start position:0% might think of as pretty small changes in<00:24:34.049> the<00:24:34.380> climate<00:24:34.500> I<00:24:34.919> see<00:24:35.820> these<00:24:36.030> as<00:24:36.210> important 00:24:36.770 --> 00:24:36.780 align:start position:0% in the climate I see these as important 00:24:36.780 --> 00:24:38.840 align:start position:0% in the climate I see these as important challenges<00:24:37.260> that<00:24:37.440> if<00:24:37.620> we<00:24:37.860> if<00:24:38.100> we<00:24:38.159> ignore<00:24:38.429> them 00:24:38.840 --> 00:24:38.850 align:start position:0% challenges that if we if we ignore them 00:24:38.850 --> 00:24:40.549 align:start position:0% challenges that if we if we ignore them and<00:24:38.909> put<00:24:39.090> our<00:24:39.179> head<00:24:39.360> in<00:24:39.390> the<00:24:39.539> sand<00:24:39.750> then<00:24:40.409> we're 00:24:40.549 --> 00:24:40.559 align:start position:0% and put our head in the sand then we're 00:24:40.559 --> 00:24:41.600 align:start position:0% and put our head in the sand then we're going<00:24:40.679> to<00:24:40.740> live<00:24:40.890> in<00:24:41.010> a<00:24:41.070> pretty<00:24:41.250> frightening 00:24:41.600 --> 00:24:41.610 align:start position:0% going to live in a pretty frightening 00:24:41.610 --> 00:24:44.810 align:start position:0% going to live in a pretty frightening world<00:24:42.000> but<00:24:42.929> as<00:24:43.140> long<00:24:43.470> as<00:24:43.500> we<00:24:44.100> keep<00:24:44.370> our<00:24:44.580> eye<00:24:44.730> on 00:24:44.810 --> 00:24:44.820 align:start position:0% world but as long as we keep our eye on 00:24:44.820 --> 00:24:47.720 align:start position:0% world but as long as we keep our eye on these<00:24:45.390> issues<00:24:45.570> and<00:24:45.990> we<00:24:46.409> don't<00:24:46.679> ignore<00:24:47.250> them 00:24:47.720 --> 00:24:47.730 align:start position:0% these issues and we don't ignore them 00:24:47.730 --> 00:24:51.049 align:start position:0% these issues and we don't ignore them then<00:24:48.240> I<00:24:48.270> think<00:24:48.390> society<00:24:49.340> should<00:24:50.340> be<00:24:50.520> able<00:24:50.700> to 00:24:51.049 --> 00:24:51.059 align:start position:0% then I think society should be able to 00:24:51.059 --> 00:24:54.380 align:start position:0% then I think society should be able to to<00:24:51.690> adjust<00:24:52.110> and<00:24:52.320> deal<00:24:52.530> with<00:24:52.770> them<00:24:52.980> but<00:24:53.789> that's 00:24:54.380 --> 00:24:54.390 align:start position:0% to adjust and deal with them but that's 00:24:54.390 --> 00:24:56.390 align:start position:0% to adjust and deal with them but that's the<00:24:54.570> sooner<00:24:54.809> we<00:24:55.020> can<00:24:55.169> act<00:24:55.350> that<00:24:55.890> the<00:24:55.980> easier<00:24:56.340> it 00:24:56.390 --> 00:24:56.400 align:start position:0% the sooner we can act that the easier it 00:24:56.400 --> 00:24:57.850 align:start position:0% the sooner we can act that the easier it will<00:24:56.429> be<00:24:56.610> to<00:24:56.640> do<00:24:56.880> something 00:24:57.850 --> 00:24:57.860 align:start position:0% will be to do something 00:24:57.860 --> 00:25:00.580 align:start position:0% will be to do something we<00:24:58.400> think<00:24:58.670> we<00:24:58.790> know<00:24:58.820> a<00:24:59.000> lot<00:24:59.330> about<00:24:59.660> the<00:25:00.230> natural 00:25:00.580 --> 00:25:00.590 align:start position:0% we think we know a lot about the natural 00:25:00.590 --> 00:25:03.340 align:start position:0% we think we know a lot about the natural environment<00:25:00.760> but<00:25:01.760> every<00:25:02.750> year<00:25:03.020> there's<00:25:03.200> a<00:25:03.260> new 00:25:03.340 --> 00:25:03.350 align:start position:0% environment but every year there's a new 00:25:03.350 --> 00:25:06.310 align:start position:0% environment but every year there's a new surprise<00:25:03.620> and<00:25:04.299> I<00:25:05.299> don't<00:25:05.780> know<00:25:05.929> what<00:25:06.080> it'll<00:25:06.170> be 00:25:06.310 --> 00:25:06.320 align:start position:0% surprise and I don't know what it'll be 00:25:06.320 --> 00:25:07.660 align:start position:0% surprise and I don't know what it'll be this<00:25:06.500> I<00:25:06.679> don't<00:25:06.950> know<00:25:07.040> what<00:25:07.160> it'll<00:25:07.370> be<00:25:07.429> this 00:25:07.660 --> 00:25:07.670 align:start position:0% this I don't know what it'll be this 00:25:07.670 --> 00:25:11.500 align:start position:0% this I don't know what it'll be this year<00:25:07.880> but<00:25:08.059> I'm<00:25:08.299> sure<00:25:08.510> that<00:25:08.690> there<00:25:09.049> will<00:25:09.080> be<00:25:09.230> one